Assessing the Sustainability of EU Timber Consumption Trends: Comparing Consumption Scenarios with a Safe Operating Space Scenario for Global and EU Timber Supply
2. Scenarios of Timber Consumption
2.1. Global Scenarios
2.2. EU Scenarios
3. Materials and Methods
3.1. Global Consumption Patterns
3.2. EU-27 Consumption Patterns
- High growth + RES: Scenario A1 for products and meeting the RES Directive targets for fuel. This scenario is based on the EUWood project . It should be noted that energy wood volumes are based on the literature estimates, which calculated volumes needed for 2030 before revised targets were established in 2014. This implies that lower volumes of wood energy than depicted here may be needed to meet targets, thus indicating a potential overestimation.
- Moderate growth + RES: Scenario B2 for products and meeting the RES Directive targets for fuel. This scenario is based on estimates derived from EFSOS II . It should be noted that these differ somewhat from estimates based on the EUWood project as regards products (estimates between studies for meeting renewable energy targets differ by just 1 M3 in 2030). EFSOS II has a lower product demand in the B2 scenario due to revised estimates for paper consumption (reflecting a decreasing trend for graphic paper due to competition with electronic media; it should be noted that this trend is actually more pronounced than estimated, potentially leading to even lower levels of demand for products and more opportunity for energy wood).
- Moderate growth, no RES: Scenario B2 for products and continuation of past trends for fuelwood (extrapolation of 1.5% per year). This scenario is based on the reference scenario from EFSOS II .
Conflicts of Interest
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E.g., The New Generation Plantations platform aims to promote establishment of forest plantations that contribute positively to local welfare and natural ecosystems: http://newgenerationplantations.org.
Footprints describe a consumption-oriented approach for monitoring environmental pressures. The four footprints—materials, water, carbon and land—are gaining increasing attention at both the European and international levels [7,32,33], although the methodological robustness and level of calculation differs widely among all categories . The initial and rough footprint methodology for forestry applied by  is based on accounting for removals plus imports minus exports. Trade data are converted to primary timber equivalents through conversion values and all secondary flows reported by the data were removed. They are reported in cubic meters per capita and refer to primary raw timber demand (e.g., woody biomass from forest areas, excluding recycled and reused sources).
See the website of the United Nations: https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/?menu=1300.
Note, this is “safe operating space scenario” is more ambitious than but in keeping with the aim of the European Union to support efforts to “halt global forest cover loss by 2030 at the latest and to reduce gross tropical deforestation by at least 50% by 2020 compared to current levels”  (p. 5). It is also more ambitious than the planetary boundary for forest cover change suggested by , which is related primarily to the climate impacts of forest cover change and not the biodiversity impacts.
This is a set of seven principles adopted by the International Law Association related to sustainable development. The principles were developed due to a concern over “the growing economic and social inequalities between and within States”  and the “need for a comprehensive international law perspective on integration of social, economic, financial and environmental objectives and activities” . The second principle addresses equity and the eradication of poverty, including inter- and intra-generational equity.
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O’Brien, M.; Bringezu, S. Assessing the Sustainability of EU Timber Consumption Trends: Comparing Consumption Scenarios with a Safe Operating Space Scenario for Global and EU Timber Supply. Land 2017, 6, 84. https://doi.org/10.3390/land6040084
O’Brien M, Bringezu S. Assessing the Sustainability of EU Timber Consumption Trends: Comparing Consumption Scenarios with a Safe Operating Space Scenario for Global and EU Timber Supply. Land. 2017; 6(4):84. https://doi.org/10.3390/land6040084Chicago/Turabian Style
O’Brien, Meghan, and Stefan Bringezu. 2017. "Assessing the Sustainability of EU Timber Consumption Trends: Comparing Consumption Scenarios with a Safe Operating Space Scenario for Global and EU Timber Supply" Land 6, no. 4: 84. https://doi.org/10.3390/land6040084