Simulating the Coupling of Rural Settlement Expansion and Population Growth in Deqing, Zhejiang Province, Based on MCCA Modeling

Round 1

Reviewer 1 Report

Based on the analysis of the land use transfer matrix in Deqing from 2000–2020 and the MCCA model, this paper simulated the spatial pattern for rural settlements in Deqing from 2020–2035 (NDS, CPS, RDS). The results not only can provide a new insight into the redistribution of rural land resources at the regional scale, but also support data to meet China’s rural revitalization goals. It is suit for this journal. The suggestions are as follows.

(i)                  How do you choose the driving factor data? Should they be the same during the different periods?

(ii)                 There are some unclear expressions in the research framework (Fig.2), for example, “Kappa OA, mcFoM, RE” and “NDS”, “CPS”, “RDS”. Also, I am not clear how to couple the growth of rural population and expansion of rural settlement by coupling development model.

(iii)               In Fig.6, what is meaning of the black area?

Author Response

We are very grateful to your comments for the manuscript. According to your advice, we amended the relevant part in manuscript. All the questions are answered one by one in the attachment.

Author Response File: Author Response.docx

Reviewer 2 Report

This paper simulates the expansion of rural settlements and the growth of rural population, calculates the coupling relationship between them, and has done a lot of work, but it is not clear what scientific problem this paper wants to solve. In addition, this paper still has some shortcomings in the following aspects:

(1) When simulating the expansion of rural settlements, the driving factors selected in this paper mainly include population, rainfall, temperature, slope, elevation as well as some distance factors. In fact, however, the expansion of rural settlements is mainly influenced by social economy and policy. For example, the increase of population will lead to the expansion of rural settlements, but the current problem of rural decline in China is prominent, and the rural population is mainly decreasing. In addition, household income, rural industry development and policies are the leading factors of rural residential expansion.

(2) Three scenarios are set up in this paper, whose rationality and theoretical basis need to be further explained.

(3) In population forecasting, this paper assumes that population changes are less affected by policies. Based on the population growth rate in the past 15 years, this paper simply uses the comprehensive growth rate method to predict the future population, and the prediction results are questionable. For example, if population changes over the past 15 years have not been continuous but are characterized by distinct phases, this approach is not appropriate.

(4) This article is an international document in English, but most of the references are articles published by Chinese. It is suggested to increase the review of relevant international studies for international readers.

Author Response

We are very grateful to your comments for the manuscript. According to your advice, we amended the relevant part in manuscript. All the questions are answered one by one in the attachment.

Author Response File: Author Response.docx

Reviewer 3 Report

The article concerns the study of changes in the spatial structure of rural areas and transformations in the use of agricultural land. Agricultural land is decreasing, at the expense of using it for housing and infrastructure purposes. On the other hand, due to the growing world population and the growing demand for food, there is pressure to expand the size of agricultural production. Proper management of land resources is therefore important from the point of view of ensuring food security. Therefore, the choice of the topic should be considered correct and important.

In general, the work makes a good impression, there is a lot of information contained in tables, drawings and maps. The interpretation of the results is extensive. However, I have some substantive comments.

The first remark concerns the methodology.

It is about selecting variables for the model. Some variables raise doubts as to their substantive validity, in particular, it is about natural indicators, eg "the average annual precipitation still contributed to the expansion of rural settlements" (519). This opinion is repeated several times in the text. It is difficult to justify such an interpretation without extra explanation.

To sum up, the methodology should explain what was the criterion for selecting the variables, why such variables were selected. This needs to be completed. Without such an explanation, the work loses its value.

The second remark concerns the purpose of the work - no clearly defined research objective. It is true that the introduction says "In this paper, we aim to analyze the spatial ......" (101). Note, however, that the analysis is a research tool and the tool cannot be a target. It is about evaluation and in order to evaluate something you have to analyze it.

According to the purpose and methodology, the interpretation of research results and conclusions should be verified.

 

To sum up, in this version the information is unreliable, the article requires corrections and appropriate additions.

Author Response

We are very grateful to your comments for the manuscript. According to your advice, we amended the relevant part in manuscript. All the questions are answered one by one in the attachment.

Author Response File: Author Response.docx

Round 2

Reviewer 2 Report

 The manuscript has been improved.

Reviewer 3 Report

I accept the correction