An Integrated Modelling System to Predict Hydrological Processes under Climate and Land-Use/Cover Change Scenarios
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Case Study and Method
2.1. The Elbow River Watershed
2.2. Methodological Framework
2.2.1. Observed Climate and LULC Data
2.2.2. GCMs-Scenarios
2.2.3. LULC Change Modeling and Scenarios
2.2.4. Hydrological Modeling
2.2.5. Simulated Scenarios
- (1)
- Impact of LULC change on hydrological processes:
- (a)
- LU-H scenario: This scenario assumes constant baseline climate (1961–1990) while LULC changes for the 2020s and 2050s under the Lu-(PH) scenario.
- (b)
- LU-L scenario: This scenario assumes constant baseline climate (1961–1990) while LULC changes for the 2020s and 2050s under the Lu-(PL) scenario.
- (2)
- Impact of climate change on hydrological process:
- (a)
- A1B scenario: This scenario considers the A1B climate scenario while LULC is constant.
- (b)
- B2 scenario: This scenario considers the B2 climate scenario while LULC is constant.
- (3)
- Impact of climate and LULC change on hydrological processes:
- (a)
- LU(H)-A1B scenario: This scenario considers the A1B climate scenario with the LU-PH scenario.
- (b)
- LU(L)-A1B scenario: This scenario considers the A1B climate scenario with the LU-PL scenario.
- (c)
- LU(H)-B2 scenario: This scenario considers the B2 climate scenario with the LU-PH scenario.
- (d)
- LU(L)-B2 scenario: This scenario considers the B2 climate scenario with the LU-PL scenario.
3. Results and Discussion
3.1. Annual and Seasonal Changes in Climate Scenarios
3.2. Impact of LULC and Climate Change on Water Balance
3.2.1. Average Seasonal Changes in Water Balance
Actual Evapotranspiration
Infiltration
Overland Flow
3.2.2. Average Annual Changes in Water Balance
3.2.3. Streamflow
Flow Duration Curve
4. Conclusions
Acknowledgments
Author Contributions
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A
Appendix B
Climate Station (ID) | Elevation |
---|---|
3031090 | 1067 |
3031875 | 1235 |
303FOPP | 1303 |
3052270 | 1400 |
3053602 | 1463 |
305LRKB | 2120 |
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Procedure | Calibration/Validation Period | NSE (Daily) | NSE (Monthly) | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
05B-J009 | 05B-J006 | 05B-J004 | 05B-J010 | 05B-J009 | 05B-J006 | 05B-J004 | 05B-J010 | ||
Calibration | 1981–1991 | 0.53 | 0.63 | 0.72 | 0.63 | 0.63 | 0.75 | 0.83 | 0.75 |
Validation | 1991–2000 | N/A | N/A | 0.73 | 0.71 | N/A | N/A | 0.87 | 0.86 |
2001–2010 | N/A | N/A | 0.61 | 0.63 | N/A | N/A | 0.70 | 0.71 |
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Farjad, B.; Gupta, A.; Razavi, S.; Faramarzi, M.; Marceau, D.J. An Integrated Modelling System to Predict Hydrological Processes under Climate and Land-Use/Cover Change Scenarios. Water 2017, 9, 767. https://doi.org/10.3390/w9100767
Farjad B, Gupta A, Razavi S, Faramarzi M, Marceau DJ. An Integrated Modelling System to Predict Hydrological Processes under Climate and Land-Use/Cover Change Scenarios. Water. 2017; 9(10):767. https://doi.org/10.3390/w9100767
Chicago/Turabian StyleFarjad, Babak, Anil Gupta, Saman Razavi, Monireh Faramarzi, and Danielle J. Marceau. 2017. "An Integrated Modelling System to Predict Hydrological Processes under Climate and Land-Use/Cover Change Scenarios" Water 9, no. 10: 767. https://doi.org/10.3390/w9100767