Study on Applicability of Conceptual Hydrological Models for Flood Forecasting in Humid, Semi-Humid Semi-Arid and Arid Basins in China
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Data and Methods
2.1. XAJ Model
2.2. NS Model
2.3. MIX Model
2.4. SCE-UA Method
2.5. Information Theory Based Data Analysis Method
- (a)
- We adopt the PMI-based input variable selection method to select the most significant input variables. This operation will determine the minimum set of input variables that can satisfactorily represents the rainfall-runoff mapping relationship contained in the original data set.
- (b)
- Compute the mutual information (MI) between the selected input variables and the output discharge time series for the study watershed.
- (c)
- Compare MI of different types of watersheds. A higher MI value indicates that the useful information contained in the rainfall-runoff mapping relationship is sufficient. On the other hand, lower MI value indicates a mapping relationship with insufficient information.
2.6. Descriptions of the Nine Study Watersheds
3. Results and Discussion
3.1. Data Analysis of the 9 Study Watersheds
3.1.1. Rainfall-Runoff Data Analysis
3.1.2. Areal Mean Rainfall and Runoff Analysis Based on Information Theory
3.2. Model Performance Comparisons Based on Boxplots
3.2.1. Total Volume Relative Error
3.2.2. Peak Flow Relative Error
3.2.3. Peak Flooding Time Error
3.2.4. NSCE
3.3. Model Performance Comparisons Based on Scatter Plots
3.4. General Performance of the Models
4. Conclusions
Acknowledgments
Author Contributions
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Watershed Type | Watershed Name | Area (km2) | Number of Sub-Basins (Rainfall Stations) | Annual Mean Rainfall (mm) | Annual Mean Runoff (mm) | Annual Mean Runoff Coefficient |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Humid | Chengcun | 290 | 10 | 1600 | 591 | 0.37 |
Chuxian | 579 | 4 | 1047 | 352 | 0.34 | |
Tunxi | 2696.7 | 11 | 1800 | 900 | 0.5 | |
Semi-humid semi-arid | Yingge | 539 | 2 | 714 | 248 | 0.35 |
Maduwang | 1601 | 10 | 631 | 191 | 0.3 | |
Dongwan | 2856 | 8 | 700 | 212 | 0.3 | |
Arid | Xinghe | 474 | 3 | 500 | 96 | 0.19 |
Zaoyuan | 716 | 4 | 635 | 71 | 0.11 | |
Zhidan | 773 | 5 | 510 | 42 | 0.08 |
Watershed Type | Watershed | Selected Input Variables | MI |
---|---|---|---|
Humid | Chengcun | P(t-4), P(t-7), P(t-9), P(t-10), P(t-12), P(t-15), P(t-18), P(t-21), P(t-23) | 0.7378 |
Tunxi | P(t-6), P(t-9), P(t-10), P(t-13), P(t-17), P(t-18), P(t-20), P(t-21), P(t-22), P(t-23) | 0.4794 | |
Chuxian | P(t-8), P(t-12), P(t-15), P(t-17), P(t-18), P(t-20), P(t-21), P(t-22), P(t-23) | 0.3186 | |
Semi-humid semi-arid | Dongwan | P(t-9), P(t-10), P(t-13), P(t-14), P(t-15), P(t-18), P(t-23) | 0.4536 |
Maduwang | P(t-9), P(t-15), P(t-19), P(t-22), P(t-15) | 0.5287 | |
Yingge | P(t), P(t-3), P(t-6), P(t-9), P(t-12), P(t-15), P(t-23) | 0.8971 | |
Arid | Zhidan | P(t), P(t-1), P(t-2), P(t-3), P(t-8) | 0.5573 |
Zaoyuan | P(t-12) | 4.9642 | |
Xinghe | P(t), P(t-1), P(t-2), P(t-3), P(t-4), P(t-6) | 0.8057 |
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Kan, G.; He, X.; Ding, L.; Li, J.; Liang, K.; Hong, Y. Study on Applicability of Conceptual Hydrological Models for Flood Forecasting in Humid, Semi-Humid Semi-Arid and Arid Basins in China. Water 2017, 9, 719. https://doi.org/10.3390/w9100719
Kan G, He X, Ding L, Li J, Liang K, Hong Y. Study on Applicability of Conceptual Hydrological Models for Flood Forecasting in Humid, Semi-Humid Semi-Arid and Arid Basins in China. Water. 2017; 9(10):719. https://doi.org/10.3390/w9100719
Chicago/Turabian StyleKan, Guangyuan, Xiaoyan He, Liuqian Ding, Jiren Li, Ke Liang, and Yang Hong. 2017. "Study on Applicability of Conceptual Hydrological Models for Flood Forecasting in Humid, Semi-Humid Semi-Arid and Arid Basins in China" Water 9, no. 10: 719. https://doi.org/10.3390/w9100719