Next Article in Journal
Quantifying the UK Online Interest in Substances of the EU Watchlist for Water Monitoring: Diclofenac, Estradiol, and the Macrolide Antibiotics
Previous Article in Journal
An Integrated Approach for Site Selection of Snow Measurement Stations
Open AccessArticle

Using Exceedance Probability to Determine Total Maximum Daily Loads for Reservoir Water Quality Management

Department of Natural Resources, Chinese Culture University, 55, Hwa-kang Rd., Yang-Ming-Shan, Taipei 11114, Taiwan
Department of Civil Engineering, National Taipei University of Technology, No1, Sec3, Chung-Hsiao E. Rd., Taipei 10608, Taiwan
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Richard Skeffington
Water 2016, 8(11), 541;
Received: 20 August 2016 / Revised: 3 November 2016 / Accepted: 10 November 2016 / Published: 18 November 2016
Total maximum daily loads (TMDLs) are used to protect water bodies based on their assimilative ability and are transferred as a maximum allowable load, which is the sum of all pollution emissions in a watershed that cannot be exceeded. This allowable load is calculated from a target water quality concentration and a flow state. The target water quality concentration is typically consistent with water quality standards; however, it is difficult to determine which flow state to use, especially for lakes and reservoirs. In this study, an exceedance probability method is established for determining the TMDL for reservoirs. The SWMM (Storm Water Management Model) was used to understand the pollution loads from the watershed, and the Vollenweider model was used to simulate the total phosphorous (TP) concentrations in the reservoir. Using the validated Vollenweider model, the relationship between pollution loads and the target TP concentration is illustrated. This relationship is associated with real changes in the reservoir water volume and is presented as the exceedance probability. In the study area (i.e., the Shiman Reservoir in Taiwan), an exceedance probability of 50% is suggested, and the allowable TP load is 22,209 kg/year when considering a target TP concentration of 20 μg/L. When considering effective management, the pollution sources in three hot spots are priorities, and controlling their point and nonpoint pollution sources can decrease TP from 25 to 22 μg/L. View Full-Text
Keywords: total maximum daily loads (TMDLs); reservoir management; exceedance probability total maximum daily loads (TMDLs); reservoir management; exceedance probability
Show Figures

Figure 1

MDPI and ACS Style

Chen, C.-F.; Tsai, L.-Y.; Fan, C.-H.; Lin, J.-Y. Using Exceedance Probability to Determine Total Maximum Daily Loads for Reservoir Water Quality Management. Water 2016, 8, 541.

Show more citation formats Show less citations formats
Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Article Access Map

Back to TopTop