Discharge Alterations of the Mures River, Romania under Ensembles of Future Climate Projections and Sequential Threats to Aquatic Ecosystem by the End of the Century
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Study Area
3. Methods
3.1. SWIM Model Description
3.2. IHA Method
IHA Group | Hydrological Parameters | Functional Link to the Aquatic Ecosystem |
---|---|---|
Magnitude of monthly water conditions | Median monthly discharge (twelve indicators) | Provide adequate habitat area; Maintain water temperature, dissolved oxygen; Drinking water for terrestrial animals; Groundwater tables, soil moisture |
Timing of annual extremes | Average duration of low pulse event (below 25 percentile) Average duration of high pulse event (exceeding 75 percentile) No. of high pulses each year No. of low pulses each year | Induced velocities, sediment transport and erosion; Water temperature; Connection to flood plains Water availability for habitat area; Ensure migration and spawning paths for fishes Trigger new life-cycles; Provide floodplains with nutrients, ensure connection of floodplain with main channel |
Total | 16 Indicators | - |
3.3. Data
3.4. Model Calibration and Validation
3.5. Climate Scenarios
RCM | GCM | Name Used in This Study | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
MPIMET | NERSC | CNRM | ||
DMI | x | DMI | ||
DMI | x | DMI-NERSC | ||
DMI | x | DMI-CNRM | ||
HadRM | x | HadRM | ||
ICTP | x | ICTP | ||
KMNI | x | KMNI | ||
MPI | x | MPI | ||
SMHI | x | SMHI | ||
SMHI | x | SMHI-NERSC |
4. Results and Discussion
4.1. Model Performance
4.2. Future Climate Projections in the Context of Hydrological Modeling
4.3. IHA Analysis for Monthly Median Discharge, High and Low Flow Events Alterations
4.4. Spatial Assessment of Expected Changes
5. Conclusions
Acknowledgments
Author Contributions
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Lobanova, A.; Stagl, J.; Vetter, T.; Hattermann, F. Discharge Alterations of the Mures River, Romania under Ensembles of Future Climate Projections and Sequential Threats to Aquatic Ecosystem by the End of the Century. Water 2015, 7, 2753-2770. https://doi.org/10.3390/w7062753
Lobanova A, Stagl J, Vetter T, Hattermann F. Discharge Alterations of the Mures River, Romania under Ensembles of Future Climate Projections and Sequential Threats to Aquatic Ecosystem by the End of the Century. Water. 2015; 7(6):2753-2770. https://doi.org/10.3390/w7062753
Chicago/Turabian StyleLobanova, Anastasia, Judith Stagl, Tobias Vetter, and Fred Hattermann. 2015. "Discharge Alterations of the Mures River, Romania under Ensembles of Future Climate Projections and Sequential Threats to Aquatic Ecosystem by the End of the Century" Water 7, no. 6: 2753-2770. https://doi.org/10.3390/w7062753