Comparison of Water Flows in Four European Lagoon Catchments under a Set of Future Climate Scenarios
- Is the SWIM model able to sufficiently simulate the hydrology of the four chosen multi-river European lagoon catchments?
- What future climate changes can be expected in the four selected lagoon catchments?
- How are the river discharge and catchment runoff impacted by possible changed climate conditions?
- Is there a spatial heterogeneity of impacts between the catchments in Europe or within single catchments?
- Which climate parameter is most important in terms of influencing future river runoff?
- What suggestions can be made for the management of the four lagoon catchments, and what are the implications of this work for other lagoons and coastal systems?
2. Description of the Case Study Areas
- The Ria de Aveiro is located in Portugal and connected to the Atlantic Ocean. It has a catchment of about 3560 km2 mainly drained by the Vouga River. The catchment is influenced by a humid and temperate climate, and largely covered by forest.
- The Mar Menor is located in Spain close to the Mediterranean Sea with a catchment of about 1380 km2. Although the catchment is characterized by hot and dry summers, it is intensively used for irrigated agriculture. The largest river Albujon Wadi often dries up and is not a permanent stream.
- The Tyligulskyi Liman can be found in the Ukraine near the Black Sea with a catchment of about 5240 km2. It is mainly drained by the Tyligul River and characterized by a warm temperate to continental climate. Due to very fertile soils in this region the catchment is mainly used for agriculture.
- The transboundary catchment of the Vistula Lagoon is located in Poland and Russia connected to the Baltic Sea. It covers an area of about 20.730 km2 drained by several main rivers in a marine temperate climate. The drainage area is mainly used for agriculture with relatively numerous forested areas.
|Parameter||Unit||Ria de Aveiro||Mar Menor||Tyligulskyi Liman||Vistula Lagoon|
|Sea||-||Atlantic Ocean||Mediterranean||Black Sea||Baltic Sea|
|Total freshwater inflow||km3·year−1||2.14||0.009||0.023||3.69|
|Main inflowing rivers||-||Vouga||Albujon||Tyligul||Pregolya|
|Number of analysed inflowing rivers||-||10||7||6||12|
|Number of infl. rivers with avail. gauge data||-||1||0||1||5|
|Av. altitude (range)||m a.s.l.||363 (−10–1,105)||100 (−5–1,061)||102 (−6–254)||82 (−27–308)|
|Av. precipitation (range)||mm·year−1||1,100 (600–2,100)||337 (300–370)||515 (470–570)||750 (670–860)|
|Major land uses|
3. Material and Methods
3.1. Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM)
3.2. Input Data, Model Setup and Calibration Strategies
|Data||Ria de Aveiro||Mar Menor||Tyligulskyi Liman||Vistula Lagoon|
|Observed climate||30 stations; large gaps in records; missing solar radiation was derived with the Hargreaves-Samani method||5 stations (4 in the basin), period: 2000–2011||4 climate and 2 precipitation stations outside the catchment available; poor correlation between precipitation and measured discharge → model data for 1979–2009 were used||Observed climate data with poor coverage in time and space → model data for 1979–2009 were used|
|Sources: http://snirh.pt/ http://www.tutiempo.net/||Source: SIAM||Source: WFDEI climate data ||Source: WFDEI climate data |
|DEM||SRTM (Shuttle Radar Topography Mission)||SRTM (Shuttle Radar Topography Mission)||SRTM (Shuttle Radar Topography Mission)||SRTM (Shuttle Radar Topography Mission)|
|Source: http://srtm.csi.cgiar.org/||Source: http://srtm.csi.cgiar.org/||Source: http://srtm.csi.cgiar.org/||Source: http://srtm.csi.cgiar.org/|
|Land use||CORINE Land Cover 2006,|
|CORINE Land Cover 2006,|
|No digital data was available A paper map was scanned and digitized||CORINE (CLC2000), Kaliningrad oblast territorial planning scheme|
|Source: EEA||Source: EEA||Source: DENR, RDILM||Sources: EEA, PKO|
|Soil map and soil parameterization||Map: ESDB||Map: HWSD (1 km × 1 km)||Map: HWSD (1 km × 1 km)||Maps: HWSD and SGDBE|
|Soil parameters from SGDBE and estimated using the German soil mapping guidelines ||Soil parameters from HWSD and estimated using the German soil mapping guidelines ||Soil parameters from HWSD and estimated using the German soil mapping guidelines ||Soil parameters from maps and estimated using the German soil mapping guidelines |
|Spatial resolution in SWIM||90 m × 90 m raster maps||20 m × 20 m raster maps||100 m × 100 m raster maps||100 m × 100 m raster maps|
|365 subbasins||215 subbasins,||175 subbasins||442 subbasins|
|2452 hydrotopes||744 hydrotopes||920 hydrotopes||4469 hydrotopes|
|Observed discharge||hourly/quarterly water levels and flow curve equations for 3 gauges for 2002–2005||no gauge data available, 24 survey measurements for period 09/2003–06/2006, estimated seasonal dynamics for 2003||one upstream gauge (1984–1988) and one downstream gauge (1984–1988 and 1998–2007)||10 discharge gauges for different sub-periods during 1995–2009 Main calibration gauges Lozy (Pasleka river) and Gvardeysk (Pregolya river)|
|Source: http://snirh.pt/||Sources: UM, [45,46]||Source: CGO||Sources: IMGW-PIB, KCHEM|
|Main crops||corn||water melons, lettuce||winter wheat||winter wheat|
|Source: ||Source: ||Source: ||Source: |
|Water management||Water abstraction: from stream for public water supply with exact location||Irrigation with water from Tagus river (data on annual amounts and location of irrigated area)||Data on ponds and irretrievable water use provided by case study partners||Water inflow and outflow implemented according to literature|
|Source: APA||Source: ||Sources: IWR-MR, PTR||Sources: [52,53]|
3.3. Climate Scenario Description and Application
|S1||HadCM3Q3||RCA3||Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI)||Sweden|
|S2||HadCM3Q0||HadRM3Q0||Hadley Center for Climate Predictions and Research (HC)||Great Britain|
|S3||HadCM3Q3||HadRM3Q3||Hadley Center for Climate Predictions and Research (HC)||Great Britain|
|S4||HadCM3Q16||HadRM3Q16||Hadley Center for Climate Predictions and Research (HC)||Great Britain|
|S5||HadCM3Q16||RCA3||Community Climate Change Consortium for Ireland (4CI)||Northern Ireland|
|S6||HadCM3Q0||CLM||Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich (ETHZ)||Switzerland|
|S7||ECHAM5-r3||RACMO2||Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)||The Netherlands|
|S8||BCM||RCA3||Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI)||Sweden|
|S9||ECHAM5-r3||RCA3||Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI)||Sweden|
|S10||ECHAM5-r3||REMO||Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI)||Germany|
|S11||ARPEGE||ALADIN RM5.1||National Center for Meteorological Research (CNRM)||France|
|S12||ARPEGE||HIRHAM5||Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI)||Denmark|
|S13||ECHAM5-r3||HIRHAM5||Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI)||Denmark|
|S14||BCM||HIRHAM5||Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI)||Denmark|
|S15||ECHAM5-r3||RegCM3||International Center for Theoretical Physics (ICTP)||Italy|
4.1. Model Calibration and Validation in the Four Case Study Areas
|Ria de Aveiro||Águeda||Ponte Águeda||2002–2005||0.79||+5.6|
|Mar Menor||Albujon||outlet||8/2002–2/2004 *||0.44||−19|
|Tyligulskyi Liman||Tyligul||Berezovka||1998–2007 °||0.36||+1.5|
|Nowa Pasleka||1998–2000 °||0.72||−9.2|
4.2. Climate Change Signals
|Catchment||Temperature (°C)||Precipitation (%)||Radiation (%)|
|Ria de Aveiro||+1.03||+2.1||+3.1||−5.6||−7.5||−15.6||+2.2||+3.3||+3.9|
4.3. Impacts of Climate Change on Total Water Discharge to the Lagoons
4.4. Impacts of Climate Change on Water Discharge of Single Rivers
4.5. Impacts of Climate Change on Spatial Patterns of Runoff
4.6. Climate Sensitivity of Freshwater Inflow to the Lagoons
|Change in Precipitation||+25%||−25%|
|Resulting change in discharge||Ria de Aveiro||+30%||−25%|
- Models are always simplifications of reality and are characterised by some level of abstraction. Hydrological processes taking place in atmosphere, soils, water bodies and vegetation, as well as interrelations between them, are represented in models with a certain degree of accuracy. This is due to a restricted memory of computers and computation time, as well as due to a limited human knowledge and understanding of processes. Comparing simulated and observed climate data, several studies show the restricted ability of current climate models to satisfactorily reproduce the real local measurements [64,65]. Similar constraints can be found in the hydrological and eco-hydrological models as well. The SWIM model, for example, as a semi-distributed model simulating processes at a hydrotope-level resolution, tries to cover the heterogeneity within a catchment to a certain extent, but is not able to deliver locally exact projections.
- A further major uncertainty is connected to climate scenarios applied for impact assessments. Different models come along with different scenarios, and nobody knows the most probable future climate development in a region, as it is influenced by several unpredictable factors. A common method to overcome this problem is to use different scenarios from GCMs and/or RCMs in order to verify most probable projections and investigate ranges of uncertainty. Such method is preferable in comparison with a single climate scenario approach as recommend by many authors [24,25,26,27]. But this procedure still has limitations, and the uncertainty remains high, especially in case of a distinct diversity in climate projections, as detected for the Tyligulskyi Liman catchment in our study.
- A hydrological or eco-hydrological model used for an impact assessment should be calibrated and validated in advance. For that, appropriate homogeneous and complete spatial datasets (DEM, land use and soil maps) and time series (daily climate parameters and observed discharge) are necessary for a successful model setup. However, in our case in all four study areas some data were missing, or data coverage in time and/or space was problematic. Therefore, in all four CSAs, the model calibration was a very complicated task (as described in Section 3.2 and Section 4.1), and the model outputs incorporate a certain degree of uncertainty.
6. Summary and Conclusions
Conflicts of Interest
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Hesse, C.; Stefanova, A.; Krysanova, V. Comparison of Water Flows in Four European Lagoon Catchments under a Set of Future Climate Scenarios. Water 2015, 7, 716-746. https://doi.org/10.3390/w7020716
Hesse C, Stefanova A, Krysanova V. Comparison of Water Flows in Four European Lagoon Catchments under a Set of Future Climate Scenarios. Water. 2015; 7(2):716-746. https://doi.org/10.3390/w7020716Chicago/Turabian Style
Hesse, Cornelia, Anastassi Stefanova, and Valentina Krysanova. 2015. "Comparison of Water Flows in Four European Lagoon Catchments under a Set of Future Climate Scenarios" Water 7, no. 2: 716-746. https://doi.org/10.3390/w7020716