1.2. The EFRI-RESIN Project
1.3. Sustainability, Robustness and Resilience
2. Water in Tucson, Pima County, Arizona
3. Initiating Scenario Planning
|D1–D2||Total water demand—population density & residential demand|
|D3||Future commercial & industrial demand|
|D4||Potential user: Rosemont Mine (proposed copper mine on edge of planning area)|
|D5||Potential user: Tucson Electric Power (water for electricity generation)|
|D6||Outdoor water demand (varies by housing type, swimming pools, vegetation, etc.)|
|D7||Outdoor reclaimed water use|
|D8||Water loss in potable distribution systems (loss and unaccounted water)|
|D9||Water loss in reclaimed distribution system (loss & unaccounted water if dual distribution systems)|
|S1||Existing water supplies (legally available groundwater, CAP, effluent/reclaimed water)|
|S2–S6||Potentially available supply—water transfers, importation, desalination, stormwater, Native water leases|
|S7||Wastewater recovery (share of water returned)/ potential effluent supply (reclaimed water budget)|
|S8||Spatial unavailability of “banked water” (Central Arizona Groundwater Replenishment District)|
|C1||Cost per gallon to acquire and produce potable water|
|C2||Cost per gallon to produce reclaimed water|
|C3||Wastewater collection and treatment|
|P1||Public opinion acceptability of decentralized wastewater treatment plants and facility siting|
|P2||Publically desired water quality or risk perceptions|
|P3||Public opinion of type of reclaimed water uses with dual distribution system|
|P4||Public adoption of reclaimed water for residential outdoor (dual distribution system)|
|P5||Public acceptance of reclaimed water for fire flow (dual distribution system)|
|P6||Public acceptance/adoption of direct potable reuse (DPR) (single distribution system)|
|P7||Public adoption of indirect potable reuse (IPR) (public acceptance and willingness to pay)|
|P8||Water recovery rate/potential effluent supply (due to household level greywater & rainwater systems)|
|P9||Environmental uses for reclaimed water (in-stream flows)|
|P10||Outdoor greywater use and length (period) of adoption|
|P11||Outdoor rainwater catchment/adoption|
|P12||Willingness to pay to treat to high quality potable water|
|P13||Willingness to pay for new potable water supplies|
|P14||Willingness to pay for reclaimed water (e.g., reclaimed water by end-use water quality/class of effluent)|
|Code||(Physical)-engineering based forces|
|E1||Ability to recharge reclaimed water supplies (e.g., physical location of recharge facilities)|
|E2||Ability to recharge surface/future water supplies (e.g., depth to bedrock)|
|E3||Ability to recharge stormwater|
|E4||Ability to desalinate|
|Code||Institutional-political based forces|
|I1||Planning and implementation uncertainties (City/County rights, jurisdictional issues & coordination)|
|I3||Potable water rates|
|I4||Sewer rates (wastewater)|
|I5||Reclaimed water rates|
|I6||Conservation rules, ordinances, regulation, incentives for water (rainwater, greywater, stormwater)|
|I7||Costs/rate subsidy for low-income residents|
|I8||Utility level drought plans|
|I9||Transfer of development rights across jurisdictions|
|I10||Federal, state or local rules, ordinances, regulation, incentives for land (land use, zoning, planning)|
|I11||State Lands release (sale for revenue), planning, and disposition (timing of release, which parcels)|
|Code||Macro forces in the larger environment|
|M1||Population timing variability (rate of economic and population growth, vacancies)|
|M2||Long-term population (when might it stabilize, and at what level?)|
|M3||Supply uncertainty due to local drought|
|M4–M5||Supply uncertainty—regional drought, Colorado River water sharing, climate change|
|M6||Bond ratings of City or Tucson and Pima County|
|M7||Infrastructure cost (finance, discount rate for timing of construction)|
|M8||Federal institutional and legislative changes|
|M9||State institutional and legislative changes|
|M10||Existing water rights changes (surface, groundwater, reclaimed water rights)|
4. Ranking Driving Forces
5. Scenarios and Driving Forces
5.1. Supply Based Drivers
5.2. Perception Based Drivers
5.3. Demand Based Drivers
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