Scenario Planning to Address Critical Uncertainties for Robust and Resilient Water–Wastewater Infrastructures under Conditions of Water Scarcity and Rapid Development
1.2. The EFRI-RESIN Project
1.3. Sustainability, Robustness and Resilience
2. Water in Tucson, Pima County, Arizona
3. Initiating Scenario Planning
|D1–D2||Total water demand—population density & residential demand|
|D3||Future commercial & industrial demand|
|D4||Potential user: Rosemont Mine (proposed copper mine on edge of planning area)|
|D5||Potential user: Tucson Electric Power (water for electricity generation)|
|D6||Outdoor water demand (varies by housing type, swimming pools, vegetation, etc.)|
|D7||Outdoor reclaimed water use|
|D8||Water loss in potable distribution systems (loss and unaccounted water)|
|D9||Water loss in reclaimed distribution system (loss & unaccounted water if dual distribution systems)|
|S1||Existing water supplies (legally available groundwater, CAP, effluent/reclaimed water)|
|S2–S6||Potentially available supply—water transfers, importation, desalination, stormwater, Native water leases|
|S7||Wastewater recovery (share of water returned)/ potential effluent supply (reclaimed water budget)|
|S8||Spatial unavailability of “banked water” (Central Arizona Groundwater Replenishment District)|
|C1||Cost per gallon to acquire and produce potable water|
|C2||Cost per gallon to produce reclaimed water|
|C3||Wastewater collection and treatment|
|P1||Public opinion acceptability of decentralized wastewater treatment plants and facility siting|
|P2||Publically desired water quality or risk perceptions|
|P3||Public opinion of type of reclaimed water uses with dual distribution system|
|P4||Public adoption of reclaimed water for residential outdoor (dual distribution system)|
|P5||Public acceptance of reclaimed water for fire flow (dual distribution system)|
|P6||Public acceptance/adoption of direct potable reuse (DPR) (single distribution system)|
|P7||Public adoption of indirect potable reuse (IPR) (public acceptance and willingness to pay)|
|P8||Water recovery rate/potential effluent supply (due to household level greywater & rainwater systems)|
|P9||Environmental uses for reclaimed water (in-stream flows)|
|P10||Outdoor greywater use and length (period) of adoption|
|P11||Outdoor rainwater catchment/adoption|
|P12||Willingness to pay to treat to high quality potable water|
|P13||Willingness to pay for new potable water supplies|
|P14||Willingness to pay for reclaimed water (e.g., reclaimed water by end-use water quality/class of effluent)|
|Code||(Physical)-engineering based forces|
|E1||Ability to recharge reclaimed water supplies (e.g., physical location of recharge facilities)|
|E2||Ability to recharge surface/future water supplies (e.g., depth to bedrock)|
|E3||Ability to recharge stormwater|
|E4||Ability to desalinate|
|Code||Institutional-political based forces|
|I1||Planning and implementation uncertainties (City/County rights, jurisdictional issues & coordination)|
|I3||Potable water rates|
|I4||Sewer rates (wastewater)|
|I5||Reclaimed water rates|
|I6||Conservation rules, ordinances, regulation, incentives for water (rainwater, greywater, stormwater)|
|I7||Costs/rate subsidy for low-income residents|
|I8||Utility level drought plans|
|I9||Transfer of development rights across jurisdictions|
|I10||Federal, state or local rules, ordinances, regulation, incentives for land (land use, zoning, planning)|
|I11||State Lands release (sale for revenue), planning, and disposition (timing of release, which parcels)|
|Code||Macro forces in the larger environment|
|M1||Population timing variability (rate of economic and population growth, vacancies)|
|M2||Long-term population (when might it stabilize, and at what level?)|
|M3||Supply uncertainty due to local drought|
|M4–M5||Supply uncertainty—regional drought, Colorado River water sharing, climate change|
|M6||Bond ratings of City or Tucson and Pima County|
|M7||Infrastructure cost (finance, discount rate for timing of construction)|
|M8||Federal institutional and legislative changes|
|M9||State institutional and legislative changes|
|M10||Existing water rights changes (surface, groundwater, reclaimed water rights)|
4. Ranking Driving Forces
5. Scenarios and Driving Forces
5.1. Supply Based Drivers
5.2. Perception Based Drivers
5.3. Demand Based Drivers
References and Notes
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© 2012 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open-access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/).
Scott, C.A.; Bailey, C.J.; Marra, R.P.; Woods, G.J.; Ormerod, K.J.; Lansey, K. Scenario Planning to Address Critical Uncertainties for Robust and Resilient Water–Wastewater Infrastructures under Conditions of Water Scarcity and Rapid Development. Water 2012, 4, 848-868. https://doi.org/10.3390/w4040848
Scott CA, Bailey CJ, Marra RP, Woods GJ, Ormerod KJ, Lansey K. Scenario Planning to Address Critical Uncertainties for Robust and Resilient Water–Wastewater Infrastructures under Conditions of Water Scarcity and Rapid Development. Water. 2012; 4(4):848-868. https://doi.org/10.3390/w4040848Chicago/Turabian Style
Scott, Christopher A., Christopher J. Bailey, Ralph P. Marra, Gwendolyn J. Woods, Kerri Jean Ormerod, and Kevin Lansey. 2012. "Scenario Planning to Address Critical Uncertainties for Robust and Resilient Water–Wastewater Infrastructures under Conditions of Water Scarcity and Rapid Development" Water 4, no. 4: 848-868. https://doi.org/10.3390/w4040848