Proposed Application of a Tree-Based Model for a Priority Scenario Restoration Plan for a Water Distribution Network ^†

Hazard impacts are increasing in complexity as the world population grows. No universal strategies are available to minimize or eliminate the impacts of all scenarios. In this paper, a priority scenario-based strategy methodology is proposed using a Decision Tree (DT) machine learning tool. This approach identifies the parameters and combinations that contribute to high impact and loss from a hazard event conditioned on a priority scenario. The method is applied to a local water distribution network under seismic hazards. The priority scenarios in this study are vulnerability (VPS), damage (DPS), and cost (CPS). Each priority scenario identifies different affected areas. Some areas were repeatedly affected in different priority scenarios, showing an overlap of effects and making them a high crucial priority. Based on the analysis, a priority-based map was generated, highlighting areas that should be given priority for restoration or protection. The DTs were compared with other ML tools and Tree-based models to ascertain the best tool that determines the affected parameters. Competition tests compared the results from the ML tools and showed acceptable predictions; however, the DT was demonstrated to be the most ideal tool for this proposed method, showing an r² of 0.6745, 0.9259, and 0.7343 for VPS, DPS, and CPS, respectively.