Forecasting Future Water Demands for Sustainable Development in Al-Ain City, United Arab Emirates
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Study Area
3. Materials and Methods
4. Results and Discussion
4.1. Model Calibration for Overall Annual Water Demand
4.2. Model Calibration for Overall Monthly Water Demand
4.3. Model Calibration of Sector-Wise Monthly Water Demand
4.3.1. Agricultural Sector
4.3.2. Residential Sector
4.3.3. Government Sector
4.3.4. Other Sectors
4.4. Model Verification
4.5. Water Scenarios Development
4.5.1. Population-Tied Scenarios
Base Water Scenario
Moderate Population Growth Water Scenario
Megaprojects Water Scenario
Tourism-Focused Water Scenario
High Population Growth Water Scenario
4.5.2. Water Loss Scenarios
4.6. Simulation Results for Population-Tied Water Scenarios
4.6.1. Overall Annual Water Demand
4.6.2. Overall Monthly Water Demand
4.6.3. Sector-Wise Monthly Water Demand Forecast
4.7. Simulation Results for Water Loss Scenarios
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Month | α | β |
---|---|---|
January | −1451.229328 | 0.010592 |
February | −1217.438719 | 0.009622 |
March | 816.404390 | 0.006745 |
April | −729.888729 | 0.009128 |
May | 1668.356303 | 0.005999 |
June | 1531.240811 | 0.005908 |
July | −3811.084769 | 0.014918 |
August | −4918.296586 | 0.016623 |
September | −5300.964394 | 0.016890 |
October | −2288.803470 | 0.012219 |
November | −4542.537992 | 0.015372 |
December | −104.953726 | 0.008059 |
Month | Base Year | Month | Base Year |
---|---|---|---|
January | 2004 | July | 2010 |
February | 2004 | August | 2010 |
March | 2009 | September | 2010 |
April | 2010 | October | 2010 |
May | 2009 | November | 2010 |
June | 2009 | December | 2010 |
Month | Agriculture | Commercial | Government | Non-Metered | Industry | Public Services | Residential | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
January | α | −234.46 | −65.49 | −262.65 | −21.97 | −6.54 | −16.60 | −843.53 |
β | 0.00171 | 0.00048 | 0.00192 | 0.00016 | 0.00005 | 0.00012 | 0.00616 | |
February | α | −109.31 | −57.13 | −310.31 | −20.26 | 0.06 | −12.47 | −707.09 |
β | 0.00086 | 0.00045 | 0.00245 | 0.00016 | 0.00001 | 0.00010 | 0.00559 | |
March | α | 71.38 | 49.47 | 42.69 | 14.40 | 3.07 | 10.50 | 624.90 |
β | 0.00059 | 0.00041 | 0.00035 | 0.00012 | 0.00003 | 0.00009 | 0.00516 | |
April | α | −53.92 | −45.97 | −136.96 | −11.61 | −1.77 | −11.06 | −468.60 |
β | 0.00067 | 0.00058 | 0.00171 | 0.00015 | 0.00002 | 0.00014 | 0.00586 | |
May | α | 184.99 | 85.88 | 374.91 | 35.26 | 5.86 | 16.26 | 964.36 |
β | 0.00067 | 0.00031 | 0.00135 | 0.00013 | 0.00003 | 0.00006 | 0.00347 | |
June | α | 161.79 | 83.02 | 311.76 | 24.86 | 8.17 | 16.69 | 924.96 |
β | 0.00062 | 0.00032 | 0.00120 | 0.00010 | 0.00003 | 0.00006 | 0.00357 | |
July | α | −298.71 | −198.18 | −736.97 | −67.02 | −13.97 | −42.96 | −2453.27 |
β | 0.00117 | 0.00078 | 0.00289 | 0.00026 | 0.00006 | 0.00017 | 0.00960 | |
August | α | −390.01 | −292.71 | −1723.40 | −110.59 | −17.31 | −58.46 | −2325.83 |
β | 0.00132 | 0.00099 | 0.00583 | 0.00037 | 0.00006 | 0.00020 | 0.00786 | |
September | α | −409.55 | −215.16 | −1053.62 | −87.15 | −15.40 | −64.24 | −3455.83 |
β | 0.00131 | 0.00069 | 0.00336 | 0.00028 | 0.00005 | 0.00021 | 0.01101 | |
October | α | −411.66 | −133.20 | −537.77 | −31.10 | −5.82 | −30.16 | −1139.09 |
β | 0.00220 | 0.00071 | 0.00287 | 0.00017 | 0.00003 | 0.00016 | 0.00608 | |
November | α | −401.99 | −261.71 | −508.35 | −90.80 | −12.41 | −60.57 | −3206.69 |
β | 0.00136 | 0.00089 | 0.00172 | 0.00031 | 0.00004 | 0.00021 | 0.01085 | |
December | α | −10.34 | −5.64 | −21.01 | −1.85 | −0.34 | −1.27 | −64.50 |
β | 0.00079 | 0.00043 | 0.00161 | 0.00014 | 0.00003 | 0.00010 | 0.00495 |
Month | Industrial Sector | Commercial, Non-Metered & Public Services Sectors | Residential, Agricultural & Governmental |
---|---|---|---|
January | 2004 | 2004 | 2010 |
February | 2005 | 2004 | 2010 |
March | 2009 | 2009 | 2010 |
April | 2010 | 2010 | 2010 |
May | 2010 | 2009 | 2010 |
June | 2009 | 2009 | 2010 |
July | 2010 | 2010 | 2010 |
August | 2010 | 2010 | 2010 |
September | 2010 | 2010 | 2010 |
October | 2010 | 2010 | 2010 |
November | 2010 | 2010 | 2010 |
December | 2010 | 2010 | 2010 |
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Younis, H.I.; Kizhisseri, M.I.; Mohamed, M.M. Forecasting Future Water Demands for Sustainable Development in Al-Ain City, United Arab Emirates. Water 2023, 15, 3800. https://doi.org/10.3390/w15213800
Younis HI, Kizhisseri MI, Mohamed MM. Forecasting Future Water Demands for Sustainable Development in Al-Ain City, United Arab Emirates. Water. 2023; 15(21):3800. https://doi.org/10.3390/w15213800
Chicago/Turabian StyleYounis, Hebah Ibrahim, Mohamed Ibrahim Kizhisseri, and Mohamed Mostafa Mohamed. 2023. "Forecasting Future Water Demands for Sustainable Development in Al-Ain City, United Arab Emirates" Water 15, no. 21: 3800. https://doi.org/10.3390/w15213800