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Article

A Framework to Project Future Rainfall Scenarios: An Application to Shallow Landslide-Triggering Summer Rainfall in Wanzhou County China

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Division of Geotechnical Engineering and Geosciences, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, UPC BarcelonaTECH, 08034 Barcelona, Spain
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Department of Engineering Geology and Geotechnical Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China
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School of Civil and Transportation Engineering, Hebei University of Technology, Tianjin 300401, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Olga Petrucci
Water 2022, 14(6), 873; https://doi.org/10.3390/w14060873
Received: 21 December 2021 / Revised: 22 February 2022 / Accepted: 24 February 2022 / Published: 10 March 2022
(This article belongs to the Section Hydrology)
Fatal landslides are a widespread geohazard that have affected millions of people and have claimed the lives of thousands around the globe. A change in climate has significantly increased the frequency and magnitude of rainfall, which affect the susceptibility of slopes to shallow landslides. This paper presents a methodological framework to assess the future changes in extreme and seasonal rainfall magnitudes with climate model projections. This framework was applied to project summer rainfall over Wanzhou County, China, using an ensemble of four regional climate models (RCMs) from the East Asian domain of the Coordinated Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) under the Phase 5 Coupled Intercomparison Modeling Project (CMIP5). The results find that extreme daily rainfall was projected to decrease in the mid-21st century, with an uncertainty measured by a coefficient of variation between 5% and 25%. The mean seasonal rainfall is projected to increase in the mid-21st century up to a factor of 1.4, and up to a factor of 1.8 in the late-21st century. The variation in the mid-21st century ranged from 10% to 35%, and from 30% to 50% in the late-21st century. This case study delivered a proof-of-concept for a methodological framework to derive shallow landslide-triggering rainfall scenarios under climate change conditions. The resulting spatially distributed climate change factors (CCFs) can be used to incorporate future rainfall scenarios in slope susceptibility models and climate impact assessments. View Full-Text
Keywords: climate change; rainfall projections; extreme rainfall; bias correction climate change; rainfall projections; extreme rainfall; bias correction
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MDPI and ACS Style

Ferrer, J.; Guo, Z.; Medina, V.; Puig-Polo, C.; Hürlimann, M. A Framework to Project Future Rainfall Scenarios: An Application to Shallow Landslide-Triggering Summer Rainfall in Wanzhou County China. Water 2022, 14, 873. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14060873

AMA Style

Ferrer J, Guo Z, Medina V, Puig-Polo C, Hürlimann M. A Framework to Project Future Rainfall Scenarios: An Application to Shallow Landslide-Triggering Summer Rainfall in Wanzhou County China. Water. 2022; 14(6):873. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14060873

Chicago/Turabian Style

Ferrer, Joaquin, Zizheng Guo, Vicente Medina, Càrol Puig-Polo, and Marcel Hürlimann. 2022. "A Framework to Project Future Rainfall Scenarios: An Application to Shallow Landslide-Triggering Summer Rainfall in Wanzhou County China" Water 14, no. 6: 873. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14060873

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