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Article

Future Climate-Driven Runoff Change in the Large River Basins in Eastern Siberia and the Far East Using Process-Based Hydrological Models

Water Problems Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, 119333 Moscow, Russia
Academic Editors: Zhongkai Feng, Wenchuan Wang and Mingwei Ma
Water 2022, 14(4), 609; https://doi.org/10.3390/w14040609
Received: 21 December 2021 / Revised: 23 January 2022 / Accepted: 15 February 2022 / Published: 17 February 2022
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Changes and Hydrological Processes)
The main goal of this study was to obtain new results on the physically based future hydrological consequences of climate change in the Amur, Lena, and Selenga River basins by using data from an ensemble of global climate (general circulation) models (GCMs) as boundary conditions in spatially distributed, process-based runoff formation models. This approach provides a basis for a more detailed comparison of the sensitivity of hydrological systems of neighboring large river basins in Eastern Siberia and the Far East. The greatest increases in annual flow are predicted for the Lena River under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and RCP 6.0 by the middle and end of the 21st century and for the Selenga River under RCP 6.0 by the end of the 21st century, while the Amur flow anomalies are close to zero. During the 21st century, the greatest relative changes in river flow are predicted for the spring flood, especially for the Lena and Selenga, under both scenarios. The summer–autumn and winter runoff of the Amur River has a negative change of up to 8% for the two RCPs, and, on the contrary, the anomalies are positive for the Lena and Selenga. Evaluating runoff variations between RCPs, we noted high summer–autumn and winter runoff changes for the Amur River under RCP 6.0 for the future period, a significant increase in anomalies of the spring and winter runoff of the Lena under RCP 6.0 by the end of the 21st century, and a greater prevalence of summer–autumn and winter runoff increase for the Selenga River under RCP 2.6 during the 21st century, but it is especially pronounced by its end. View Full-Text
Keywords: climate-driven runoff change; runoff generation; process-based hydrological modeling; RCPs; GCMs; ISIMIP; Amur River; Lena River; Selenga River; ECOMAG climate-driven runoff change; runoff generation; process-based hydrological modeling; RCPs; GCMs; ISIMIP; Amur River; Lena River; Selenga River; ECOMAG
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MDPI and ACS Style

Kalugin, A. Future Climate-Driven Runoff Change in the Large River Basins in Eastern Siberia and the Far East Using Process-Based Hydrological Models. Water 2022, 14, 609. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14040609

AMA Style

Kalugin A. Future Climate-Driven Runoff Change in the Large River Basins in Eastern Siberia and the Far East Using Process-Based Hydrological Models. Water. 2022; 14(4):609. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14040609

Chicago/Turabian Style

Kalugin, Andrey. 2022. "Future Climate-Driven Runoff Change in the Large River Basins in Eastern Siberia and the Far East Using Process-Based Hydrological Models" Water 14, no. 4: 609. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14040609

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