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Article

Assessment of Seasonal Surface Runoff under Climate and Land Use Change Scenarios for a Small Forested Watershed: Upper Tarlung Watershed (Romania)

1
Watershed Management Department, National Institute for Research and Development in Forestry “Marin Dracea”, 500040 Brasov, Romania
2
Faculty of Silviculture and Forest Engineering, Transilvania University of Brasov, 500036 Brașov, Romania
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: František Petrovič
Water 2022, 14(18), 2860; https://doi.org/10.3390/w14182860
Received: 25 July 2022 / Revised: 8 September 2022 / Accepted: 9 September 2022 / Published: 13 September 2022
(This article belongs to the Section Hydrology)
This study aims to evaluate the potential impact of climate and land use change on seasonal dynamics of surface runoff within the Upper Tarlung watershed of 71.62 km2. Using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), we simulated the surface runoff under the projections from four global and regional combination models for two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and three land use change scenarios. In addition, short (2020–2039), mid (2040–2069), and long-term model simulations (2070–2100) were analyzed compared with a ten-year baseline period (1979–1988). Ensemble SWAT outputs showed that, in spring, surface runoff could decrease by up to 28% or increase by up to 86%, in summer can decrease by up to 69%, while in autumn and winter, increases of approximately two to five times fold are expected. The decreasing tendency is more pronounced under climate conditions, while the sharpest increases are estimated in the comprehensive scenario of climate and land use change by 50%. Those results serve as a support for local water, forest, and land managers in anticipating possible threats and conceiving adaptive strategies to manage the studied watershed efficiently. View Full-Text
Keywords: seasonal surface runoff; climate change; land use change; SWAT; long-term projections; small forested watershed seasonal surface runoff; climate change; land use change; SWAT; long-term projections; small forested watershed
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MDPI and ACS Style

Marin, M.; Clinciu, I.; Tudose, N.C.; Ungurean, C.; Mihalache, A.L.; Martoiu, N.E.; Tudose, O.N. Assessment of Seasonal Surface Runoff under Climate and Land Use Change Scenarios for a Small Forested Watershed: Upper Tarlung Watershed (Romania). Water 2022, 14, 2860. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14182860

AMA Style

Marin M, Clinciu I, Tudose NC, Ungurean C, Mihalache AL, Martoiu NE, Tudose ON. Assessment of Seasonal Surface Runoff under Climate and Land Use Change Scenarios for a Small Forested Watershed: Upper Tarlung Watershed (Romania). Water. 2022; 14(18):2860. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14182860

Chicago/Turabian Style

Marin, Mirabela, Ioan Clinciu, Nicu Constantin Tudose, Cezar Ungurean, Alin Lucian Mihalache, Nicoleta Emilia Martoiu, and Oana Nicoleta Tudose. 2022. "Assessment of Seasonal Surface Runoff under Climate and Land Use Change Scenarios for a Small Forested Watershed: Upper Tarlung Watershed (Romania)" Water 14, no. 18: 2860. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14182860

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