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Article

Patterns of Past and Future Droughts in Permanent Lowland Rivers

Laboratory of Hydrology, Lithuanian Energy Institute, 44403 Kaunas, Lithuania
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Academic Editor: Ana Iglesias
Water 2022, 14(1), 71; https://doi.org/10.3390/w14010071
Received: 26 November 2021 / Revised: 17 December 2021 / Accepted: 27 December 2021 / Published: 1 January 2022
The problem of droughts is acute due to climate change. The study aims to assess the temporal and spatial drought patterns in Lithuanian lowland rivers in the past and to project these phenomena according to climate scenarios and models. Drought analysis was based on Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) and Streamflow Drought Index (SDI). To evaluate the past patterns, the hydrometeorological data of 17 rivers were used from 1961–2020. Future drought changes were analyzed in 2021–2100 according to the selected RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways) using the hydrological model HBV. There were different patterns of droughts in three hydrological regions of Lithuania (Western, Central and Southeastern). The Southeastern region was more prone to extreme summer hydrological droughts, and they had a shorter accumulation period compared to the other two regions. SPI and RDI indices showed that the number of dry months and the minimum value of the index increased, extending the accumulation period. The highest correlation was recorded between RDI-12/SPI-12 and SDI-12. The amplitude between extremely wet and dry values of river runoff will increase according to RCP8.5. The projections indicated that hydrological drought intensity in the Central region is expected to increase under both analyzed RCPs. View Full-Text
Keywords: meteorological drought; SPI and RDI indices; hydrological drought; SDI index; historical droughts; droughts projections; lowland rivers meteorological drought; SPI and RDI indices; hydrological drought; SDI index; historical droughts; droughts projections; lowland rivers
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MDPI and ACS Style

Nazarenko, S.; Kriaučiūnienė, J.; Šarauskienė, D.; Jakimavičius, D. Patterns of Past and Future Droughts in Permanent Lowland Rivers. Water 2022, 14, 71. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14010071

AMA Style

Nazarenko S, Kriaučiūnienė J, Šarauskienė D, Jakimavičius D. Patterns of Past and Future Droughts in Permanent Lowland Rivers. Water. 2022; 14(1):71. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14010071

Chicago/Turabian Style

Nazarenko, Serhii, Jūratė Kriaučiūnienė, Diana Šarauskienė, and Darius Jakimavičius. 2022. "Patterns of Past and Future Droughts in Permanent Lowland Rivers" Water 14, no. 1: 71. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14010071

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