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Rainfall Threshold for Flash Flood Warning Based on Model Output of Soil Moisture: Case Study Wernersbach, Germany

Department of Hydro Sciences, Institute of Hydrology and Meteorology, Technische Universität Dresden, 01069 Dresden, Germany
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Academic Editor: Yurui Fan
Water 2021, 13(8), 1061; https://doi.org/10.3390/w13081061
Received: 4 March 2021 / Revised: 6 April 2021 / Accepted: 9 April 2021 / Published: 12 April 2021
(This article belongs to the Section Hydrology and Hydrogeology)
Convective rainfall can cause dangerous flash floods within less than six hours. Thus, simple approaches are required for issuing quick warnings. The flash flood guidance (FFG) approach pre-calculates rainfall levels (thresholds) potentially causing critical water levels for a specific catchment. Afterwards, only rainfall and soil moisture information are required to issue warnings. This study applied the principle of FFG to the Wernersbach Catchment (Germany) with excellent data coverage using the BROOK90 water budget model. The rainfall thresholds were determined for durations of 1 to 24 h, by running BROOK90 in “inverse” mode, identifying rainfall values for each duration that led to exceedance of critical discharge (fixed value). After calibrating the model based on its runoff, we ran it in hourly mode with four precipitation types and various levels of initial soil moisture for the period 1996–2010. The rainfall threshold curves showed a very high probability of detection (POD) of 91% for the 40 extracted flash flood events in the study period, however, the false alarm rate (FAR) of 56% and the critical success index (CSI) of 42% should be improved in further studies. The proposed adjusted FFG approach has the potential to provide reliable support in flash flood forecasting. View Full-Text
Keywords: rainfall threshold; flash flood warning; antecedent soil moisture; BROOK90 model; EXTRUSO project rainfall threshold; flash flood warning; antecedent soil moisture; BROOK90 model; EXTRUSO project
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MDPI and ACS Style

Luong, T.T.; Pöschmann, J.; Kronenberg, R.; Bernhofer, C. Rainfall Threshold for Flash Flood Warning Based on Model Output of Soil Moisture: Case Study Wernersbach, Germany. Water 2021, 13, 1061. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13081061

AMA Style

Luong TT, Pöschmann J, Kronenberg R, Bernhofer C. Rainfall Threshold for Flash Flood Warning Based on Model Output of Soil Moisture: Case Study Wernersbach, Germany. Water. 2021; 13(8):1061. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13081061

Chicago/Turabian Style

Luong, Thanh T.; Pöschmann, Judith; Kronenberg, Rico; Bernhofer, Christian. 2021. "Rainfall Threshold for Flash Flood Warning Based on Model Output of Soil Moisture: Case Study Wernersbach, Germany" Water 13, no. 8: 1061. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13081061

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