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Open AccessArticle

A Forecast-Skill-Based Dynamic Pre-Storm Level Control for Reservoir Flood-Control Operation

1
School of Environment and Civil Engineering, Dongguan University of Technology, Dongguan 523808, China
2
State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
3
State Key Laboratory of Hydro-Science and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
4
School of Civil Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China
5
School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China
*
Authors to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Long Ho
Water 2021, 13(4), 556; https://doi.org/10.3390/w13040556
Received: 19 December 2020 / Revised: 7 February 2021 / Accepted: 9 February 2021 / Published: 22 February 2021
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Sustainable Development of Lakes and Reservoirs)
The design and operation of reservoirs based on conventional flood-limited water levels (FLWL) implicitly adopts the assumption of hydrological stationarity. As such, historical-record-based FLWL may not be the best choice for flood-control operations due to the inherent non-stationarity of rainfall inputs. With maturing flood forecasts, this study focuses on establishing linkage between FLWL and skill of forecast, thus developing a “dynamic pre-storm level” approach for reservoir flood-control operations. The approach utilizes forecast flood magnitude, forecast skill and exceedance probability of forecast error to determine the pre-storm reservoir storage for each flood event. The exceedance probability of forecast error for each incoming flood is used as the reservoir flood control standard instead of the probability of a static return interval flood. This approach is demonstrated in a hypothetical situation in the Three Gorges Reservoir in China. The results show that under zero-forecast-skill conditions, the proposed dynamic pre-storm level matches well with the Three Gorges Reservoir-designed FLWL; and, as the forecast accuracy/skill increase, the proposed approach can make better use of the increased forecast accuracy, thereby maximizing floodwater utilization and reservoir storage. In this way, coupling the new approach with FLWL allows for more efficient and economic day-to-day reservoir operations without adding any flood risk. This study validates the usefulness of dynamic water level control during flood season, considering the improvement of flood forecast accuracy. View Full-Text
Keywords: dynamic pre-storm level; forecast skill; flood-limited water level; flood forecasts; dynamic design-flood probability dynamic pre-storm level; forecast skill; flood-limited water level; flood forecasts; dynamic design-flood probability
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MDPI and ACS Style

Wan, W.; Lei, X.; Zhao, J.; Wang, M.; Khu, S.-T.; Wang, C. A Forecast-Skill-Based Dynamic Pre-Storm Level Control for Reservoir Flood-Control Operation. Water 2021, 13, 556. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13040556

AMA Style

Wan W, Lei X, Zhao J, Wang M, Khu S-T, Wang C. A Forecast-Skill-Based Dynamic Pre-Storm Level Control for Reservoir Flood-Control Operation. Water. 2021; 13(4):556. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13040556

Chicago/Turabian Style

Wan, Wenhua; Lei, Xiaohui; Zhao, Jianshi; Wang, Mingna; Khu, Soon-Thiam; Wang, Chao. 2021. "A Forecast-Skill-Based Dynamic Pre-Storm Level Control for Reservoir Flood-Control Operation" Water 13, no. 4: 556. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13040556

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