Impacts of Climate Change on the Precipitation and Streamflow Regimes in Equatorial Regions: Guayas River Basin
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Facultad de Ciencias Agropecuarias y Recursos Naturales, Universidad Técnica de Cotopaxi (UTC), Latacunga 050150, Ecuador
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Programa de Maestría en Ciencias con Mención en Hidráulica, Universidad Nacional de Ingeniería, Lima 15012, Peru
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Subdirección de Ciencias de la Atmósfera e Hidrósfera (SCAH), Instituto Geofísico del Perú (IGP), Lima 15012, Peru
4
Carrera de Tecnología Superior en Floricultura, Instituto Superior Tecnológico Cotopaxi, Latacunga 050150, Ecuador
*
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Academic Editor: Young Gu Her
Water 2021, 13(21), 3138; https://doi.org/10.3390/w13213138
Received: 3 August 2021
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Revised: 18 October 2021
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Accepted: 29 October 2021
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Published: 8 November 2021
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change Impacts on Hydrological Processes and Water Resources of Local Watersheds)
The effects of climate change projected for 2050 to 2079 relative to the 1968–2014 reference period were evaluated using 39 CMIP5 models under the RCP8.5 emissions scenario in the Guayas River basin. The monthly normalized precipitation index (SPI) was used in this study to assess the impact of climate change for wet events and droughts from a meteorological perspective. The GR2M model was used to project changes in the streamflow of the Daule River. The climate projection was based on the four rigorously selected models to represent the climate of the study area. On average, an increase in temperature (~2 °C) and precipitation (~6%) is expected. A 7% increase in precipitation would result in a 10% increase in streamflow for flood periods, while an 8% decrease in precipitation could result in approximately a 60% reduction in flow for dry periods. The analysis of droughts shows that they will be more frequent and prolonged in the highlands (Andes) and the middle part of the basin. In the future, wet periods will be less frequent but of greater duration and intensity on the Ecuadorian coast. These results point to future problems such as water deficit in the dry season but also increased streamflow for floods during the wet season. This information should be taken into account in designing strategies for adaptation to climate change.
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Keywords:
climate change; droughts; Guayas; Ecuador; impacts
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MDPI and ACS Style
Ilbay-Yupa, M.; Ilbay, F.; Zubieta, R.; García-Mora, M.; Chasi, P. Impacts of Climate Change on the Precipitation and Streamflow Regimes in Equatorial Regions: Guayas River Basin. Water 2021, 13, 3138. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13213138
AMA Style
Ilbay-Yupa M, Ilbay F, Zubieta R, García-Mora M, Chasi P. Impacts of Climate Change on the Precipitation and Streamflow Regimes in Equatorial Regions: Guayas River Basin. Water. 2021; 13(21):3138. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13213138
Chicago/Turabian StyleIlbay-Yupa, Mercy, Franklin Ilbay, Ricardo Zubieta, Mario García-Mora, and Paolo Chasi. 2021. "Impacts of Climate Change on the Precipitation and Streamflow Regimes in Equatorial Regions: Guayas River Basin" Water 13, no. 21: 3138. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13213138
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