Mitigating Drought Conditions under Climate and Land Use Changes by Applying Hedging Rules for the Multi-Reservoir System
1
Institute of Environmental & Ecological Engineering, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, China
2
Guangdong Research Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower, Guangzhou 510635, China
3
National and Local Joint Engineering Laboratory of Estuarine Water Technology, Guangzhou 510635, China
4
Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Zhuhai 519082, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Bruno Majone
Water 2021, 13(21), 3095; https://doi.org/10.3390/w13213095
Received: 2 October 2021
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Revised: 18 October 2021
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Accepted: 29 October 2021
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Published: 3 November 2021
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Characterizing, Monitoring and Prediction of Hydrometeorological Extremes under Climate Change)
Climate and land use changes have substantially affected hydrologic cycles and increased the risk of drought. Reservoirs are one of the important means to provide resilience against hydrologic variability and achieve sustainable water management. Therefore, adaptive reservoir operating rules are needed to mitigate their adverse effects. In this study, the Hanjiang River Basin in southeast China was selected as the study area. Future climate and land use projections were produced by the Delta method and CA-Markov model, respectively. Future climate forcings and land use patterns were then incorporated into a distributed hydrologic model to evaluate river flow regime shifts. Results revealed that climate and land use changes may lead to severe drought conditions in the future. Lower flows are shown to be more sensitive to environmental changes and a decline of monthly flows could reach up to nearly 30% in the dry season. To address the threat of increasing drought uncertainties in the water supply system, the aggregation-decomposition method incorporated with hedging rules was applied to guide the multi-reservoir operation. Parameters of optimal hedging rules were obtained by a multi-objective optimization algorithm. The performance of hedging rules was evaluated by comparison to standard operating policies and conventional operating rules with respect to reliability, resiliency, vulnerability, and sustainability indices. Results showed that the multi-reservoir system guided by hedging rules can be more adaptive to the environmental changes.
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Keywords:
climate and land use changes; SWAT model; hedging rules; aggregation-decomposition; drought conditions
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MDPI and ACS Style
Li, Z.; Huang, B.; Yang, Z.; Qiu, J.; Zhao, B.; Cai, Y. Mitigating Drought Conditions under Climate and Land Use Changes by Applying Hedging Rules for the Multi-Reservoir System. Water 2021, 13, 3095. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13213095
AMA Style
Li Z, Huang B, Yang Z, Qiu J, Zhao B, Cai Y. Mitigating Drought Conditions under Climate and Land Use Changes by Applying Hedging Rules for the Multi-Reservoir System. Water. 2021; 13(21):3095. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13213095
Chicago/Turabian StyleLi, Zejun, Bensheng Huang, Zhifeng Yang, Jing Qiu, Bikui Zhao, and Yanpeng Cai. 2021. "Mitigating Drought Conditions under Climate and Land Use Changes by Applying Hedging Rules for the Multi-Reservoir System" Water 13, no. 21: 3095. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13213095
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