Projected Streamflow and Sediment Supply under Changing Climate to the Coast of the Kalu River Basin in Tropical Sri Lanka over the 21st Century

Sirisena, T.A.J.G.; Maskey, Shreedhar; Bamunawala, Janaka; Coppola, Erika; Ranasinghe, Roshanka

doi:10.3390/w13213031

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Projected Streamflow and Sediment Supply under Changing Climate to the Coast of the Kalu River Basin in Tropical Sri Lanka over the 21st Century

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IHE Delft Institute for Water Education, 2611 AX Delft, The Netherlands

Department of Water Engineering and Management, Faculty of Engineering Technology, University of Twente, 7522 NB Enschede, The Netherlands

Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University of Moratuwa, Moratuwa 10400, Sri Lanka

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Earth System Physics Section, The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP), 11, I-34151 Trieste, Italy

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Department of the Harbour, Coastal and Offshore Engineering, Deltares, 2600 MH Delft, The Netherlands

Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.

Academic Editor: Peng Gao

Water 2021, 13(21), 3031; https://doi.org/10.3390/w13213031

Received: 10 September 2021 / Revised: 18 October 2021 / Accepted: 25 October 2021 / Published: 28 October 2021

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Streamflow/Runoff and Sediment Discharge Changes under Climate Change and Anthropogenic Activities)

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Abstract

Tropical countries are already experiencing the adverse impacts of climate change. This study presents projections of climate change-driven variations in hydrology and sediment loads in the Kalu River Basin, Sri Lanka. Bias-corrected climate projections (i.e., precipitation and temperature) from three high resolution (25 km) regional climate models (viz., RegCM4-MIROC5, MPI-M-MPI-ESM-MR, and NCC-NORESM1-M) are used here to force a calibrated hydrological model to project streamflow and sediment loads for two future periods (mid-century: 2046–2065, and end of the century: 2081–2099) under two representative concentration pathways (i.e., RCPs 2.6 and 8.5). By the end of the century under RCP 8.5, all simulations (forced with the three RCMs) project increased annual streamflow (67–87%) and sediment loads (128–145%). In general, streamflow and sediment loads are projected to increase more during the southwest monsoon season (May–September) than in other periods. Furthermore, by the end of the century, all simulations under the RCP 8.5 project a shift of streamflow and sediment loads in the southwest monsoon peak from May to June, while preserving the peak in the inter-monsoon 2 (in October). The projected changes in annual sediment loads are greater than the projected changes in annual streamflow (in percentage) for both future periods. View Full-Text

Keywords: Kalu river basin; regional climate models; streamflow; sediment loads

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MDPI and ACS Style

Sirisena, T.A.J.G.; Maskey, S.; Bamunawala, J.; Coppola, E.; Ranasinghe, R. Projected Streamflow and Sediment Supply under Changing Climate to the Coast of the Kalu River Basin in Tropical Sri Lanka over the 21st Century. Water 2021, 13, 3031. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13213031

AMA Style

Sirisena TAJG, Maskey S, Bamunawala J, Coppola E, Ranasinghe R. Projected Streamflow and Sediment Supply under Changing Climate to the Coast of the Kalu River Basin in Tropical Sri Lanka over the 21st Century. Water. 2021; 13(21):3031. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13213031

Chicago/Turabian Style

Sirisena, T.A.J.G., Shreedhar Maskey, Janaka Bamunawala, Erika Coppola, and Roshanka Ranasinghe. 2021. "Projected Streamflow and Sediment Supply under Changing Climate to the Coast of the Kalu River Basin in Tropical Sri Lanka over the 21st Century" Water 13, no. 21: 3031. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13213031

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Projected Streamflow and Sediment Supply under Changing Climate to the Coast of the Kalu River Basin in Tropical Sri Lanka over the 21st Century

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