Next Article in Journal
Microphytobenthos in the Hypersaline Water Bodies, the Case of Bay Sivash (Crimea): Is Salinity the Main Determinant of Species Composition?
Previous Article in Journal
Erosion Transportation Processes as Influenced by Gully Land Consolidation Projects in Highly Managed Small Watersheds in the Loess Hilly–Gully Region, China
Article

Simulation of the Potential Distribution of the Glacier Based on Maximum Entropy Model in the Tianshan Mountains, China

1
College of Sciences, Shihezi University, Shihezi 832000, China
2
Key Laboratory of Oasis Town and Mountain-Basin System Ecology, Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, Shihez 832000, China
3
State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
*
Authors to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Aizhong Ye
Water 2021, 13(11), 1541; https://doi.org/10.3390/w13111541
Received: 25 March 2021 / Revised: 23 May 2021 / Accepted: 27 May 2021 / Published: 30 May 2021
Under the background of global climate change, the variation in the spatial distribution and ice volume of mountain glaciers have a profound influence on regional economic development and ecological security. The development of glaciers is like biological succession; when climate change approaches or exceeds the threshold of suitable conditions for glacier development, it will lead to changes in potential distribution pattern. Therefore, from the perspective of the "biological" characteristics of glaciers, it is a beneficial exploration and attempt in the field of glaciology to explore its potential distribution law with the help of the niche model. The maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) can explain the environmental conditions suitable for the survival of things by analyzing the mathematical characteristics and distribution laws of samples in space. According to glacier samples and the geographical environment data screened by correlation analysis and iterative calculation, the potential distribution pattern of Tianshan glaciers in China in reference years (1970–2000) was simulated by MaxEnt. This paper describes the contribution of geographical environmental factors to distribution of glaciers in Tianshan Mountains, quantifies the threshold range of factors affecting the suitable habitat of glaciers, and predicts the area variation and distribution pattern of glaciers under different climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP5-8.5) in the future (2040–2060, 2080–2100). The results show that the MaxEnt model has good adaptability to simulate the distribution of glaciers. The spatial heterogeneity of potential distribution of glaciers is caused by the spatio-temporal differences of hydrothermal combination and topographic conditions. Among the environmental variables, precipitation during the wettest month, altitude, annual mean temperature, and temperature seasonality have more significant effects on the potential distribution of glaciers. There is significant spatial heterogeneity in the potential distribution of glaciers in different watersheds, altitudes, and aspects. From the forecast results of glacier in various climatic scenarios in the future, about 18.16–27.62% of the total reference year glacier area are in an alternating change of melting and accumulation, among which few glaciers are increasing, but this has not changed the overall retreat trend of glaciers in the study area. Under the low emission scenario, the glacier area of the Tianshan Mountains in China decreased by 18.18% and 23.73% respectively in the middle and end of the 21st century compared with the reference years and decreased by 20.04% and 27.63%, respectively, under the high emission scenario, which showed that the extent of glacier retreat is more intense under the high emission scenario. Our study offers momentous theoretical value and practical significance for enriching and expanding the theories and analytical methods of the glacier change. View Full-Text
Keywords: mountain glacier; the MaxEnt model; potential distribution; climate scenario; Tianshan Mountains of China mountain glacier; the MaxEnt model; potential distribution; climate scenario; Tianshan Mountains of China
Show Figures

Figure 1

MDPI and ACS Style

Wang, T.; Zhang, Z.; Liu, L.; Li, Z.; Wang, P.; Xu, L.; Zhao, G.; Tian, H.; Kang, Z.; Chen, H.; Zhang, X. Simulation of the Potential Distribution of the Glacier Based on Maximum Entropy Model in the Tianshan Mountains, China. Water 2021, 13, 1541. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13111541

AMA Style

Wang T, Zhang Z, Liu L, Li Z, Wang P, Xu L, Zhao G, Tian H, Kang Z, Chen H, Zhang X. Simulation of the Potential Distribution of the Glacier Based on Maximum Entropy Model in the Tianshan Mountains, China. Water. 2021; 13(11):1541. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13111541

Chicago/Turabian Style

Wang, Tongxia, Zhengyong Zhang, Lin Liu, Zhongqin Li, Puyu Wang, Liping Xu, Guining Zhao, Hao Tian, Ziwei Kang, Hongjin Chen, and Xueying Zhang. 2021. "Simulation of the Potential Distribution of the Glacier Based on Maximum Entropy Model in the Tianshan Mountains, China" Water 13, no. 11: 1541. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13111541

Find Other Styles
Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Article Access Map by Country/Region

1
Back to TopTop