Detection and Attribution of Runoff Reduction of Weihe River over Different Periods during 1961–2016
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Study Area and Datasets
2.1. Study Area
2.2. Datasets
2.2.1. Meteorological Data and Runoff
2.2.2. Land Surface Characteristics
3. Methodology
3.1. Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) Model
3.2. Runoff Variability Detection Analysis
3.2.1. The Partial Correlation Method
3.2.2. Time-Varying Analysis with Moving Time Window Method
3.3. Runoff Variation Attribution Method
4. Results
4.1. Performance of the VIC Model
4.2. Climate Change over the Weihe River Basin
4.3. Vegetation Change over the Weihe River Basin
4.4. Variability of Runoff during 1961–2016
4.5. Changes in Precipitation-Runoff Relationship
4.6. Contributions of Climate Change and Human Activity on Runoff Variation
5. Discussion
5.1. Impact of Climate Change
5.2. Impact of Human Activity
5.3. Limitations and Further Scope
6. Conclusions
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Catchment | River | Gauge Station | Longitude | Latitude | Area(km2) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
WH1 | Jinghe | Zhangjiashan | 108°36′ | 34°38′ | 43,216 |
WH2 | Upper reach | Linjiacun | 107°03′ | 34°23′ | 30,661 |
WH3 | Middle and lower reaches | Huaxian | 109°46′ | 34°35′ | 32,621 |
Scenario | Vegetation Parameter | Forcing Data | Impacts |
---|---|---|---|
S0: Observed runoff (R0) | / | / | Climate change and human activity |
S1: Simulated runoff (R1) | Maryland Land Cover 1 km | actual | Climate change |
S2: Simulated runoff (R2) | Maryland Land Cover 1 km | detrended | None |
Basin | Mean (108 m3) | Trend (108 m3·year−1) | Variation (108 m3) | Rate (%) | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Before | After | Before | After | |||
WH | 77.52 | 44.85 | −0.9882 | 0.8175 * | −32.68 | −42.15 |
WH1 | 14.72 | 7.61 | −0.1250 | −0.3619 ** | −7.12 | −48.34 |
WH2 | 21.89 | 9.19 | −0.5015 ** | −0.0386 | −12. 71 | −58.04 |
WH3 | 42.09 | 27.42 | −0.1919 | 0.9414 ** | −14.67 | −34.84 |
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Yang, S.; Kang, T.; Bu, J.; Chen, J.; Wang, Z.; Gao, Y. Detection and Attribution of Runoff Reduction of Weihe River over Different Periods during 1961–2016. Water 2020, 12, 1416. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12051416
Yang S, Kang T, Bu J, Chen J, Wang Z, Gao Y. Detection and Attribution of Runoff Reduction of Weihe River over Different Periods during 1961–2016. Water. 2020; 12(5):1416. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12051416
Chicago/Turabian StyleYang, Shuai, Tingting Kang, Jingyi Bu, Jiahao Chen, Zhipeng Wang, and Yanchun Gao. 2020. "Detection and Attribution of Runoff Reduction of Weihe River over Different Periods during 1961–2016" Water 12, no. 5: 1416. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12051416