Coastal Vulnerability Assessment Due to Sea Level Rise: The Case Study of the Atlantic Coast of Mainland Portugal

Sea level rise, a consequence of climate change, is one of the biggest challenges that countries and regions with coastal lowlands will face in the medium term. This study proposes a methodology for assessing the vulnerability to sea-level rise on the Atlantic coast of mainland Portugal. Some scenarios of extreme sea levels for different return periods and extreme flooding events were estimated for 2050 and 2100, as proposed by the European Directive 2007/60/EC. A set of physical parameters are considered for the multi-attribute analysis based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process, in order to define a Physical Vulnerability Index fundamental to assess coastal vulnerability. For each sea-level rise scenario, coastal vulnerability maps, with a spatial resolution of 20 m, are produced at a national scale to identify areas more vulnerable to sea-level rise, which are key elements for triggering adaptation plans for such vulnerable regions. For 2050 and 2100, it is estimated that there will be 903 and 1146 km² of vulnerable areas, respectively; the Lisbon district being identified as the most vulnerable in both scenarios. Results are available as a Web Map Service for the Portuguese public entities, and through a web map viewer for the public and communities in general. View Full-Text