Evaluating the Impacts of Future Urban Expansion on Surface Runoff in an Alpine Basin by Coupling the LUSD-Urban and SCS-CN Models
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Area
2.2. Materials
2.3. Quantifying Surface Runoff in 2000
2.4. Quantifying Urban Expansion from 2000 to 2018
2.4.1. Acquiring Urban Land Information
2.4.2. Analyzing Urban Expansion
2.5. Modeling Urban Expansion from 2018 to 2050
2.5.1. Quantifying Urban Land Demand under Localized SSPs
2.5.2. Estimating Urban Expansion: 2018 to 2050
2.6. Evaluating the UEI on Surface Runoff
3. Results
3.1. The UEI on Surface Runoff from 2000 to 2018
3.2. Urban Expansion from 2018 to 2050
3.3. The UEI on Surface Runoff from 2018 to 2050
4. Discussion
4.1. The Reliability Evaluation of Urban Land Data
4.2. The Sensitivity Evaluation of the SCS-CN Model Parameters
4.3. Coupling the LUSD-Urban and SCS-CN Models Can Effectively Assess the Future UEI on Surface Runoff in Alpine Basins
4.4. The Need to Focus on Flood Risk Prevention in the Valley Region
4.5. Future Perspectives
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Year | Population (×104) | Urban Land (km2) | |
---|---|---|---|
2000 | 363.36 | 135.49 | |
2010 | 395.80 | 228.68 | |
2018 | 425.66 | 408.37 | |
2050 | Local SSP1 | 540.01 | 896.52 |
Local SSP2 | 564.23 | 1003.06 | |
Local SSP3 | 598.29 | 1152.82 | |
Local SSP4 | 524.77 | 829.47 | |
Local SSP5 | 533.74 | 868.94 |
Factors | Weight | |
---|---|---|
2000–2010 | 2010–2018 | |
Distance to urban centers | 2 | 7 |
Elevation | 14 | 1 |
Distance to railways | 20 | 6 |
Distance to highways | 17 | 32 |
Distance to roads | 24 | 5 |
Slope | 6 | 6 |
Neighborhood effects | 13 | 35 |
Inheritance attributes | 4 | 8 |
Surface Runoff | QHB | Qinghaihu Sub-Basin | Huangshui Sub-Basin | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Area (×104 km2) | Proportion (%) | Area (×104 km2) | Proportion (%) | Area (×104 km2) | Proportion (%) | |
Low runoff | 1.96 | 31.40 | 0.85 | 28.65 | 1.11 | 33.82 |
Low-medium runoff | 2.15 | 34.43 | 0.80 | 26.72 | 1.35 | 41.38 |
Medium runoff | 1.10 | 17.55 | 0.56 | 18.97 | 0.54 | 16.35 |
High-medium runoff | 0.51 | 8.12 | 0.28 | 9.57 | 0.23 | 6.88 |
High runoff | 0.53 | 8.45 | 0.48 | 16.07 | 0.05 | 1.58 |
Region | Urban Land | Urban Expansion | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
2000 (km2) | 2018 (km2) | 2000–2018 (km2) | Annual Growth Rate (%/Year) | |
QHB | 135.49 | 410.85 | 275.36 | 11.29 |
Qinghaihu sub-basin | 6.80 | 17.60 | 10.79 | 8.81 |
Huangshui sub-basin | 128.69 | 393.25 | 264.57 | 11.42 |
Xining catchment | 21.79 | 90.02 | 68.23 | 17.40 |
Huangzhong catchment | 31.72 | 84.45 | 52.73 | 9.23 |
Datong catchment | 16.89 | 51.40 | 34.51 | 11.35 |
Pingan catchment | 8.85 | 33.44 | 24.59 | 15.43 |
Region | Change in Surface Runoff (mm) | Change Rate (%) |
---|---|---|
QHB | 0.08 | 0.08 |
Qinghaihu sub-basin | 0.01 | 0.01 |
Huangshui sub-basin | 0.14 | 0.16 |
Xining catchment | 1.90 | 2.18 |
Huangzhong catchment | 1.84 | 2.10 |
Datong catchment | 0.80 | 0.79 |
Region | Urban Land | Urban Expansion | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
2018 (km2) | 2050 (km2) | 2018–2050 (km2) | Annual Growth Rate (%/Year) | |
QHB | 410.85 | 829.47–1152.82 | 418.62–741.97 | 3.18–5.65 |
Qinghaihu sub-basin | 17.60 | 32.06–42.01 | 14.46–24.41 | 2.56–4.33 |
Huangshui sub-basin | 393.25 | 797.41–1110.81 | 404.16–717.56 | 3.21–5.70 |
Xining catchment | 90.02 | 159.07–208.68 | 69.05–118.65 | 2.40–4.11 |
Pingan catchment | 33.44 | 82.47–129.21 | 49.03–95.77 | 4.58–8.95 |
Datong catchment | 51.40 | 98.21–129.05 | 46.81–77.65 | 2.85–4.72 |
Huangzhong catchment | 84.45 | 126.07–153.41 | 41.61–68.96 | 1.53–2.55 |
Region | Change in Surface Runoff (mm) | Change Rate (%) |
---|---|---|
QHB | 0.31–0.52 | 0.33–0.54 |
Qinghaihu sub-basin | 0.18–0.19 | 0.17–0.18 |
Huangshui sub-basin | 0.44–0.82 | 0.50–0.93 |
Xining catchment | 4.36–8.02 | 4.90–9.01 |
Huangzhong catchment | 3.81–6.58 | 4.25–7.36 |
Datong catchment | 2.37–4.02 | 2.33–3.95 |
2000–2010 | 2010–2018 | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
UEI on Surface Runoff (‰) | Relative Error (%) | UEI on Surface Runoff (‰) | Relative Error (%) | |
Actual value | 11.34 | 6.11 | ||
LUSD-urban + SCS-CN | 11.32 | −0.18 | 6.34 | 3.40 |
FLUS + SCS-CN | 11.82 | 4.23 | 6.83 | 11.78 |
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Fang, Z.; Song, S.; He, C.; Liu, Z.; Qi, T.; Zhang, J.; Li, J. Evaluating the Impacts of Future Urban Expansion on Surface Runoff in an Alpine Basin by Coupling the LUSD-Urban and SCS-CN Models. Water 2020, 12, 3405. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12123405
Fang Z, Song S, He C, Liu Z, Qi T, Zhang J, Li J. Evaluating the Impacts of Future Urban Expansion on Surface Runoff in an Alpine Basin by Coupling the LUSD-Urban and SCS-CN Models. Water. 2020; 12(12):3405. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12123405
Chicago/Turabian StyleFang, Zihang, Shixiong Song, Chunyang He, Zhifeng Liu, Tao Qi, Jinxi Zhang, and Jian Li. 2020. "Evaluating the Impacts of Future Urban Expansion on Surface Runoff in an Alpine Basin by Coupling the LUSD-Urban and SCS-CN Models" Water 12, no. 12: 3405. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12123405