Next Article in Journal
Influence of Calibration Parameter Selection on Flash Flood Simulation for Small to Medium Catchments with MISDc-2L Model
Previous Article in Journal
Assessment of Population Exposure to Urban Flood at the Building Scale
Open AccessArticle

Statistical Downscaling and Hydrological Modeling-Based Runoff Simulation in Trans-Boundary Mangla Watershed Pakistan

1
Centre for Integrated Mountain Research (CIMR), University of the Punjab, Qaid e Azam Campus, Lahore 53720, Pakistan
2
Faculty of Agriculture and Environmental Sciences, University of Rostock, 18059 Rostock, Germany
3
Key Laboratory of Tibetan Environment Changes and Land Surface Processes, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
4
Institute of Computer Sciences, Czech Academy of Sciences, 18207 Prague, Czech Republic
5
College of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering, China Three Gorges University, Yichang 443000, China
6
Centre of Excellence in Water Resources Engineering, University of Engineering and Technology, Lahore 53720, Pakistan
7
Climate Research Institute, Konkuk University, Seoul 100-011, Korea
*
Authors to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Water 2020, 12(11), 3254; https://doi.org/10.3390/w12113254
Received: 12 October 2020 / Revised: 9 November 2020 / Accepted: 10 November 2020 / Published: 20 November 2020
(This article belongs to the Section Hydrology and Hydrogeology)
The economy of Pakistan relies on the agricultural sector which mainly depends on the irrigation water generating from the upper Indus river basin. Mangla watershed is a trans-boundary basin which shares borders of India and Pakistan, it comprises five major sub-basins, i.e., Jhelum, Poonch, Kanshi, Neelum and Kunhar. The runoff production of this basin is largely controlled by snowmelt in combination with the winter precipitation in the upper part of the basin and summer monsoon. The present study focusses on the application of a statistical downscaling method to generate future climatic scenarios of climatic trends (temperature and precipitation) in Mangla watershed. Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) was applied to downscale the Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3, Global Climate Model (HadCM3-GCM) predictions of the A2 and B2 emission scenarios. The surface water analyst tool (SWAT) hydrological model was used for the future projected streamflows based on developing climate change scenarios by SDSM. The results revealed an increasing trend of annual maximum temperature (A2) at the rates of 0.4, 0.7 and 1.2 °C for the periods of 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively. However, a consistent decreasing trend of temperature was observed at the high-altitude region. Similarly, the annual minimum temperature exhibited an increasing pattern at the rates of 0.3, 0.5 and 0.9 °C for the periods of 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively. Furthermore, similar increases were observed for annual precipitation at the rates of 6%, 10%, and 19% during 2020, 2050 and 2080, respectively, for the whole watershed. Significant increasing precipitation trends in the future (2080) were observed in Kunhar, Neelum, Poonch and Kanshi sub-basins at the rates of 16%, 11%, 13% and 59%, respectively. Consequently, increased annual streamflow in the future at the rate of 15% was observed attributing to an increased temperature for snow melting in Mangla watershed. The similar increasing streamflow trend is consistent with the seasonal trends in terms of winter (16%), spring (19%) and summer (20%); however, autumn exhibited decreasing trend for all periods. View Full-Text
Keywords: Mangla watershed; climate change; SDSM; SWAT; Indus Basin Mangla watershed; climate change; SDSM; SWAT; Indus Basin
Show Figures

Figure 1

MDPI and ACS Style

Yaseen, M.; Waseem, M.; Latif, Y.; Azam, M.I.; Ahmad, I.; Abbas, S.; Sarwar, M.K.; Nabi, G. Statistical Downscaling and Hydrological Modeling-Based Runoff Simulation in Trans-Boundary Mangla Watershed Pakistan. Water 2020, 12, 3254. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12113254

AMA Style

Yaseen M, Waseem M, Latif Y, Azam MI, Ahmad I, Abbas S, Sarwar MK, Nabi G. Statistical Downscaling and Hydrological Modeling-Based Runoff Simulation in Trans-Boundary Mangla Watershed Pakistan. Water. 2020; 12(11):3254. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12113254

Chicago/Turabian Style

Yaseen, Muhammad; Waseem, Muhammad; Latif, Yasir; Azam, Muhammad I.; Ahmad, Ijaz; Abbas, Sohail; Sarwar, Muhammad K.; Nabi, Ghulam. 2020. "Statistical Downscaling and Hydrological Modeling-Based Runoff Simulation in Trans-Boundary Mangla Watershed Pakistan" Water 12, no. 11: 3254. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12113254

Find Other Styles
Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Article Access Map by Country/Region

1
Search more from Scilit
 
Search
Back to TopTop