Haizhou Bay is an open bay located in northern Jiangsu Province, China. This study analyzes the changes in the coastline, coastal development, and water quality of Haizhou Bay between 2006 and 2016. The box model method and numerical simulation are adopted to calculate the environmental capacities of Haizhou Bay in 2006 and 2016, analyze changes to environmental capacity features, and assess the influencing factors over this period. The scenario analysis method is used to discuss the influencing mechanism and degree of influence of factors (e.g., the water quality difference inside and outside the bay, and sea reclamation) on the environmental capacity and calculate the contribution of each influencing factor. The changes in terrain triggered by sea reclamation and water quality from 2006 to 2016 reduced the total environmental capacity of Haizhou Bay, with an influencing ratio of 0.198:0.802. In other words, poorer water quality inside the bay reduces the environmental capacity by a degree of 4.05 times that of sea reclamation. This study can offer guidance on related future research aiming to protect the marine environment of Haizhou Bay and control the total amount of pollutants discharged into the sea.
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