Risk Assessment of China’s Water-Saving Contract Projects
1
Research Center for Economy of Upper Reaches of the Yangtze River, Chongqing Technology and Business University, Chongqing 400067, China
2
School of Water Conservancy, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450011, China
3
School of Public Administration, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China
4
School of Geography, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC 3010, Australia
5
Asia Institute, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC 3010, Australia
6
School of Mechanics and Materials, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China
7
School of Economics, Yunnan University, Kunming 650091, China
*
Authors to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Water 2020, 12(10), 2689; https://doi.org/10.3390/w12102689
Received: 31 August 2020 / Revised: 22 September 2020 / Accepted: 24 September 2020 / Published: 25 September 2020
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Water Resources Management Models for Policy Assessment)
In order to alleviate the problem of water shortage, the Ministry of Water Resources of China proposed a Water-Saving Contract (WSC) project management model in 2014, which is similar to the Energy Performance Contract (EPC). In this context, this research aims to explore the applicability of China’s WSC projects by risk assessment, and to help promote WSC projects in China. Different from traditional risk assessment, this paper takes into account the uncertainty of the EPC project’s risks, and adopts the multielement connection degree set pair analysis to evaluate both the level and trend of the risks. The results show: (1) the overall risk of China’s WSC projects is low, so WSC projects are very suitable for promotion in China. However, the overall risk shows a trend of decelerated ascent, which shows that there are some potential high-risk factors in China’s WSC projects; (2) among the many risks of the WSC projects, audit risk, financing risk, and payment risk are at a high-risk level; market competition risk is at a medium-risk level; the remaining risks are at a low-risk level; (3) among the medium and high risks, audit risk, financing risk, and market competition risk have a trend of accelerated ascent, while payment risk has a trend of decelerated decline; in low risks, inflation risk has a trend of decelerated ascent, while the remaining risks have a trend of accelerated decline.
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Keywords:
risk assessment; water-saving; set pair analysis; China
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MDPI and ACS Style
Li, Q.; Shangguan, Z.; Wang, M.Y.; Yan, D.; Zhai, R.; Wen, C. Risk Assessment of China’s Water-Saving Contract Projects. Water 2020, 12, 2689.
AMA Style
Li Q, Shangguan Z, Wang MY, Yan D, Zhai R, Wen C. Risk Assessment of China’s Water-Saving Contract Projects. Water. 2020; 12(10):2689.
Chicago/Turabian StyleLi, Qian; Shangguan, Ziheng; Wang, Mark Y.; Yan, Dengcai; Zhai, Ruizhi; Wen, Chuanhao. 2020. "Risk Assessment of China’s Water-Saving Contract Projects" Water 12, no. 10: 2689.
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