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On the Predictability of Daily Rainfall during Rainy Season over the Huaihe River Basin

1
State Key Laboratory of Hydrology Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
2
Department of hydrology and water resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
3
National Cooperative Innovation Center for Water Safety & Hydro-Science, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
4
Department of Water Resources Engineering and Center for Middle Eastern Studies, Lund University, P.O. Box 118, SE-221 00 Lund, Sweden
5
Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210098, China
*
Authors to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Water 2019, 11(5), 916; https://doi.org/10.3390/w11050916
Received: 10 April 2019 / Revised: 26 April 2019 / Accepted: 29 April 2019 / Published: 1 May 2019
(This article belongs to the Section Hydrology)
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Abstract

In terms of climate change and precipitation, there is large interest in how large-scale climatic features affect regional rainfall amount and rainfall occurrence. Large-scale climate elements need to be downscaled to the regional level for hydrologic applications. Here, a new Nonhomogeneous Hidden Markov Model (NHMM) called the Bayesian-NHMM is presented for downscaling and predicting of multisite daily rainfall during rainy season over the Huaihe River Basin (HRB). The Bayesian-NHMM provides a Bayesian method for parameters estimation. The model avoids the risk to have no solutions for parameter estimation, which often occurs in the traditional NHMM that uses point estimates of parameters. The Bayesian-NHMM accurately captures seasonality and interannual variability of rainfall amount and wet days during the rainy season. The model establishes a link between large-scale meteorological characteristics and local precipitation patterns. It also provides a more stable and efficient method to estimate parameters in the model. These results suggest that prediction of daily precipitation could be improved by the suggested new Bayesian-NHMM method, which can be helpful for water resources management and research on climate change. View Full-Text
Keywords: the Bayesian-NHMM; rainy-season precipitation prediction; the Huaihe River Basin the Bayesian-NHMM; rainy-season precipitation prediction; the Huaihe River Basin
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Cao, Q.; Hao, Z.; Yuan, F.; Berndtsson, R.; Xu, S.; Gao, H.; Hao, J. On the Predictability of Daily Rainfall during Rainy Season over the Huaihe River Basin. Water 2019, 11, 916.

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