Considering that grain production in Heilongjiang province, northeast China, consumes a lot of water and land, it is necessary to explore the grain production level under restricted water and land resources. This study uses the data envelopment analysis and Malmquist index models of grain production efficiency at the province and country levels from the perspective of space during the period of grain-growing. Furthermore, a logarithmic mean Divisia index model was introduced to construct the system dynamics model. The driving factors of food production efficiency in Heilongjiang province were revealed from the time angle, and the evolution of driving factors was simulated. The results showed the following: (1) although the decrease in the area of the rural population and crop planting has inhibited the growth of grain output in Heilongjiang province, the grain output will increase slightly in the future and is estimated to reach 65.01 million tons by 2030. (2) In 2015, the average grain production efficiency in Heilongjiang Province was 92.3%, and the index of change in grain production efficiency during the grain-growing period was 0.986, which indicates that the overall grain production efficiency in the region was declining, and the input and output were lower than expected. In the future, regional grain production inputs should be allocated to the areas where the grain production efficiency is not as effective as is desired. (3) The cultivated area has the largest contribution of grain production during the period of grain-growing, and the cumulative effect is 21.6 million tons; however, it is estimated that grain yield per hectare will exceed the cultivated land in 2021 as the leading factor promoting grain production, which shows that technological progress is the most important factor moving forward to promote grain production efficiency in Heilongjiang province. Therefore, the subsequent technical measures should be taken to improve grain-production conditions, and the parameter of grain yield per hectare should be used to improve grain production efficiency. The research framework of grain production efficiency is constructed based on space and time. It is of great practical significance to explore food security and reduce the demand for soil and water resources.
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