Next Article in Journal
Characterising Recycled Organic and Mineral Materials for Use as Filter Media in Biofiltration Systems
Previous Article in Journal
GIS Applications to Investigate the Linkage between Geomorphological Catchment Characteristics and Response Time: A Case Study in Four Climatological Regions, South Africa
Article Menu
Issue 5 (May) cover image

Export Article

Open AccessArticle

The System Evaluation of Grain Production Efficiency and Analysis of Driving Factors in Heilongjiang Province

School of Water Conservancy & Civil Engineering, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin 150030, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Water 2019, 11(5), 1073; https://doi.org/10.3390/w11051073
Received: 13 April 2019 / Revised: 17 May 2019 / Accepted: 19 May 2019 / Published: 23 May 2019
(This article belongs to the Section Water–Food–Energy Nexus)
  |  
PDF [1226 KB, uploaded 23 May 2019]
  |  

Abstract

Considering that grain production in Heilongjiang province, northeast China, consumes a lot of water and land, it is necessary to explore the grain production level under restricted water and land resources. This study uses the data envelopment analysis and Malmquist index models of grain production efficiency at the province and country levels from the perspective of space during the period of grain-growing. Furthermore, a logarithmic mean Divisia index model was introduced to construct the system dynamics model. The driving factors of food production efficiency in Heilongjiang province were revealed from the time angle, and the evolution of driving factors was simulated. The results showed the following: (1) although the decrease in the area of the rural population and crop planting has inhibited the growth of grain output in Heilongjiang province, the grain output will increase slightly in the future and is estimated to reach 65.01 million tons by 2030. (2) In 2015, the average grain production efficiency in Heilongjiang Province was 92.3%, and the index of change in grain production efficiency during the grain-growing period was 0.986, which indicates that the overall grain production efficiency in the region was declining, and the input and output were lower than expected. In the future, regional grain production inputs should be allocated to the areas where the grain production efficiency is not as effective as is desired. (3) The cultivated area has the largest contribution of grain production during the period of grain-growing, and the cumulative effect is 21.6 million tons; however, it is estimated that grain yield per hectare will exceed the cultivated land in 2021 as the leading factor promoting grain production, which shows that technological progress is the most important factor moving forward to promote grain production efficiency in Heilongjiang province. Therefore, the subsequent technical measures should be taken to improve grain-production conditions, and the parameter of grain yield per hectare should be used to improve grain production efficiency. The research framework of grain production efficiency is constructed based on space and time. It is of great practical significance to explore food security and reduce the demand for soil and water resources. View Full-Text
Keywords: simulation analyses; system dynamics; data envelopment analysis; logarithmic mean Divisia index; China simulation analyses; system dynamics; data envelopment analysis; logarithmic mean Divisia index; China
Figures

Figure 1

This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited (CC BY 4.0).
SciFeed

Share & Cite This Article

MDPI and ACS Style

Zhao, Y.; Jiang, Q.; Wang, Z. The System Evaluation of Grain Production Efficiency and Analysis of Driving Factors in Heilongjiang Province. Water 2019, 11, 1073.

Show more citation formats Show less citations formats

Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Related Articles

Article Metrics

Article Access Statistics

1

Comments

[Return to top]
Water EISSN 2073-4441 Published by MDPI AG, Basel, Switzerland RSS E-Mail Table of Contents Alert
Back to Top