A Conceptual Time-Varying Flood Resilience Index for Urban Areas: Munich City
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Study Area and Data
3. Methods
3.1. Time-Varying Flood Resilience Index: FRI
3.1.1. Structure of the Flood Resilience Index
3.1.2. Event Phase Indicators
3.1.3. Recovery Phase Indicators
3.1.4. Time Series of the Flood Resilience Index
3.2. Indoor Water Depth Modelling
3.3. Parallel Diffusive Wave Model: P-DWave
4. Results
4.1. Flood Inundation Modelling
4.2. Parameter Sensitivity Analysis
4.3. Flood Resilience Index
5. Discussion
5.1. Flood Inundation Modelling
5.2. Parameter Sensitivity Analysis
- Flood severity indicator—when its reference parameter decreases, the maximum water depth in the event phase becomes greater than its reference parameter, and thus the indicator is no longer contributive to the recovery factor and does not appear in the sensitivity analysis graph in the recovery phase. In this case, the system requires a longer recovery time (approximately 300 min longer) with the smaller recovery factor. On the contrary, when the reference parameter of flood severity increases, the indicator contribution to the recovery factor increases and the recovery of system is faster (200 min).
- Total flooding depth indicator—there is no difference between increasing and decreasing the reference parameter of total flooding depth as the indicator does not appear in both graphs. The reason is that the altered reference parameter remains in any case below the total water depth during the event phase, and thus the indicator has no contribution to the recovery factor.
- Total flooding time indicator—changes in the reference parameter of total flooding time show different starting points for the FRI curve at the beginning of the recovery phase. This is due to different endpoints in the event phase, as mentioned in the previous section. In this case, there will be a higher starting point in the recovery phase according to an increased reference parameter of total flooding time, and vice versa. When the reference parameter decreases, the total flooding time in the event phase exceeds the threshold, and thus the indicator is not contributive to the recovery factor and does not appear in the sensitivity analysis graph for the recovery phase. In contrast, when the reference parameter increases, not only the starting point of the recovery phase raises, but the system is able to bounce back to the original state of performance approximately 500 min faster.
- Maximum water accumulation rate indicator and households with children indicator—due to the low weighting factors assigned to both indicators, the differences between increasing or decreasing their reference parameters is relatively small. However, it can be seen that the degree of changing is larger when their reference parameters are decreased.
- Elderly population indicator—this indicator has a slightly higher impact than the two previous indicators. This is due to a larger weighting factor assigned for it. In addition, the effect of the indicator is larger when its reference parameter is increased.
- Income indicator—decreasing/increasing its reference parameter increases/decreases the indicator impact on the recovery factor. The reference parameter of income could be considered as the threshold that defines whether the income amount reaches the maximum recovery strength, at which the income indicator equals to e1. As a result, if the reference parameter decreases, the threshold decreases, and the household will either reach the maximum recovery strength or have a larger income indicator.
5.3. Flood Resilience Index
- Increasing/decreasing the reference parameter of water depth (event phase) and flood severity (recovery phase) increases/decreases the mean FRI curve along with a decreasing/increasing standard deviation curve.
- The altered reference parameter of accumulated water depth (event phase) and total flooding depth (recovery phase) slightly changes the mean FRI and standard deviation curve but only at the beginning of the simulation, at which the accumulated water depth does not exceed the reference parameter in the event phase.
- The altered reference parameter of flooding duration (event phase) and total flooding time (recovery phase) makes the most significant changes on the mean FRI and standard deviation curve among all considered reference parameters.
- The changes on the mean FRI and standard deviation curve due to the altered reference parameter of water accumulation rate (event phase) and maximum water accumulation rate (recovery phase) appear within the timestep at 1 h, which lies at the rising limb of all indoor hydrographs for every building. Aside from this, the effect of changing such a reference parameter is not significant.
- The altered reference parameters for the social and economic indicators can only affect the recovery phase, in which these indicators are taken into account. They are highly sensitive to the assigned weighting factors and the original set of reference parameters.
- Regarding the social and economic indicators, the altered reference parameter of income has the greatest impact on the mean FRI and standard deviation curve, while that of households with children has the least.
6. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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District Name | N 2 | % of Total N | Area [ha] | % of Total Area | D 3 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Königsplatz | 417 | 7.48% | 62.43 | 16.83% | 6.68 |
Augustenstraße | 1196 | 21.46% | 51.88 | 13.98% | 23.05 |
St. Benno | 620 | 11.13% | 32.52 | 8.76% | 19.07 |
Marsfeld | 630 | 11.30% | 75.96 | 20.47% | 8.29 |
Josephsplatz | 787 | 14.12% | 31.30 | 8.44% | 25.14 |
Am a- n- Friedhof 1 | 437 | 7.84% | 21.35 | 5.75% | 20.47 |
Universität | 1195 | 21.44% | 64.84 | 17.48% | 18.43 |
Schönfeldvorstadt | 168 | 3.01% | 13.91 | 3.75% | 12.08 |
Maßmannbergl | 123 | 2.21% | 16.83 | 4.54% | 7.31 |
Maxvorstadt | 5573 | 100% | 371.02 | 100% | 15.02 |
Return Period (year) | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 20 | 30 | 50 | 100 |
Average Water Depth on Streets (cm) | 4.11 | 5.19 | 5.84 | 6.60 | 7.67 | 8.71 | 9.33 | 10.08 | 11.11 |
Ref. 1 | Original Value | Multiplication Factor | FRI Duration 2 (h) | Lowest Mean FRI |
---|---|---|---|---|
href | 0.5 m | 0.5 | 110.4 | 0.79 |
1.5 | 106.2 | 0.85 | ||
AWDref | 3 m | 0.5 | 107.2 | 0.83 |
1.5 | 107.2 | 0.84 | ||
Dref | 800 min | 0.5 | 107.2 | 0.81 |
1.5 | 107.2 | 0.84 | ||
WARref | 5 cm/min | 0.5 | 107.4 | 0.83 |
1.5 | 107.1 | 0.83 | ||
Cref | 20 % | 0.5 | 107.7 | 0.83 |
1.5 | 105.9 | 0.83 | ||
Eref | 12 % | 0.5 | 109.8 | 0.83 |
1.5 | 106.3 | 0.83 | ||
Iref | 80,000 € | 0.5 | 103.8 | 0.83 |
1.5 | 110.6 | 0.83 | ||
Original | - | 1 | 107.2 | 0.83 |
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Chen, K.-F.; Leandro, J. A Conceptual Time-Varying Flood Resilience Index for Urban Areas: Munich City. Water 2019, 11, 830. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11040830
Chen K-F, Leandro J. A Conceptual Time-Varying Flood Resilience Index for Urban Areas: Munich City. Water. 2019; 11(4):830. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11040830
Chicago/Turabian StyleChen, Kai-Feng, and Jorge Leandro. 2019. "A Conceptual Time-Varying Flood Resilience Index for Urban Areas: Munich City" Water 11, no. 4: 830. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11040830
APA StyleChen, K. -F., & Leandro, J. (2019). A Conceptual Time-Varying Flood Resilience Index for Urban Areas: Munich City. Water, 11(4), 830. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11040830