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Assessment of Flood Extremes Using Downscaled CMIP5 High-Resolution Ensemble Projections of Near-Term Climate for the Upper Thu Bon Catchment in Vietnam

1
Hydraulic Construction Institute, Vietnam Academy for Water Resources, Hanoi 116830, Vietnam
2
Vietnam Academy for Water Resources, Hanoi 116830, Vietnam
3
Graduate School of Life & Environmental Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba 305-8577, Japan
4
LEGOS Lab, Toulouse University, 31013 Toulouse, France
5
National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, Hanoi 117000, Vietnam
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Water 2019, 11(4), 634; https://doi.org/10.3390/w11040634
Received: 27 February 2019 / Revised: 21 March 2019 / Accepted: 22 March 2019 / Published: 27 March 2019
(This article belongs to the Section Hydrology)
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Abstract

Exploring potential floods is both essential and critical to making informed decisions for adaptation options at a river basin scale. The present study investigates changes in flood extremes in the future using downscaled CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project—Phase 5) high-resolution ensemble projections of near-term climate for the Upper Thu Bon catchment in Vietnam. Model bias correction techniques are utilized to improve the daily rainfall simulated by the multi-model climate experiments. The corrected rainfall is then used to drive a calibrated supper-tank model for runoff simulations. The flood extremes are analyzed based on the Gumbel extreme value distribution and simulation of design hydrograph methods. Results show that the former method indicates almost no changes in the flood extremes in the future compared to the baseline climate. However, the later method explores increases (approximately 20%) in the peaks of very extreme events in the future climate, especially, the flood peak of a 50-year return period tends to exceed the flood peak of a 100-year return period of the baseline climate. Meanwhile, the peaks of shorter return period floods (e.g., 10-year) are projected with a very slight change. Model physical parameterization schemes and spatial resolution seem to cause larger uncertainties; while different model runs show less sensitivity to the future projections. View Full-Text
Keywords: high-resolution; multi-model climate experiments; rainfall and flood extremes; near-term climate; calibrated supper-tank model high-resolution; multi-model climate experiments; rainfall and flood extremes; near-term climate; calibrated supper-tank model
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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited (CC BY 4.0).
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Nam, D.H.; Hoa, T.D.; Duong, P.C.; Thuan, D.H.; Mai, D.T. Assessment of Flood Extremes Using Downscaled CMIP5 High-Resolution Ensemble Projections of Near-Term Climate for the Upper Thu Bon Catchment in Vietnam. Water 2019, 11, 634.

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