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Water 2019, 11(2), 312; https://doi.org/10.3390/w11020312

Changes in Future Drought with HadGEM2-AO Projections

1
K-water Research Institute, Water Resources Research Center, Daejeon 34045, Korea
2
Ministry of Environment, Han River Flood Control Office, Seoul 06501, Korea
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 6 January 2019 / Revised: 6 February 2019 / Accepted: 10 February 2019 / Published: 12 February 2019
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Abstract

The standardized precipitation index (SPI)—a meteorological drought index—uses various reference precipitation periods. Generally, drought projections using future climate change scenarios compare reference SPIs between baseline and future climates. Here, future drought was projected based on reference precipitation under the baseline climate to quantitatively compare changes in the frequency and severity of future drought. High-resolution climate change scenarios were produced using HadGEM2-AO General Circulation Model (GCM) scenarios for Korean weather stations. Baseline and future 3-month cumulative precipitation data were fitted to gamma distribution; results showed that precipitation of future climate is more than the precipitation of the baseline climate. When future precipitation was set as that of the baseline climate instead of the future climate, results indicated that drought intensity and frequency will decrease because the non-exceedance probability for the same precipitation is larger in the baseline climate than in future climate. However, due to increases in regional precipitation variability over time, some regions with opposite trends were also identified. Therefore, it is necessary to understand baseline and future climates in a region to better design resilience strategies and mechanisms that can help cope with future drought. View Full-Text
Keywords: SPI; reference precipitation; reference period; climate change SPI; reference precipitation; reference period; climate change
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Kwon, M.; Sung, J.H. Changes in Future Drought with HadGEM2-AO Projections. Water 2019, 11, 312.

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