Multivariate Hybrid Modelling of Future Wave-Storms at the Northwestern Black Sea
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Study Area
3. Methods
3.1. First Step: Process-Based Dynamical Modelling
3.2. Second Step: The Statistical Model
3.2.1. Definition of Wave-Storms and Their Components
3.2.2. Generalized Pareto Distribution: Univariate Distribution-Function
3.2.3. Copulas: The Joint-Dependence Structure
3.3. Third Step: Validation of the Non-Stationary Statistical Model
3.4. Fourth Step: Comparison of the Different GCMs
4. Results
4.1. RCP4.5
4.2. RCP8.5
5. Discussion
5.1. RCP4.5
5.2. RCP8.5
5.3. Applicability of the Results
6. Conclusions
Acknowledgments
Author Contributions
Conflicts of Interest
Abbreviations
D | total wave-storm duration |
E | total wave-storm energy |
EA | East Atlantic Pattern |
GCM | general (atmospheric) circulation model |
GPD | generalized Pareto distribution |
HAC | hierarchical Archimedean copula |
significant wave-height at the peak of the wave-storm | |
NAO | North Atlantic Oscillation |
PACF | partial autocorrelation function |
RCM | regional (atmospheric) circulation model |
SC | Scandinavian Pattern |
SWAN | Simulating WAves Nearshore (spectral wave-model) |
peak wave-period at the peak of the wave-storm | |
VGAM | vectorial generalized additive model |
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GCM | Latitude | Longitude |
---|---|---|
Grid Size () | Grid Size () | |
CMCC-CM | 0.7484 | 0.7500 |
CMCC-CMS | 3.7111 | 3.7500 |
CNRM-CM5 | 1.4008 | 1.4063 |
FGOALS-G2 | 2.7906 | 2.8125 |
GFDL-CM3 | 2.0000 | 2.5000 |
GFDL-ESM2G | 2.0225 | 2.0000 |
GFDL-ESM2M | 2.0225 | 2.5000 |
HadGEM2-AO | 1.2500 | 1.8750 |
HadGEM2-CC | 1.2500 | 1.8750 |
HadGEM2-ES | 1.2500 | 1.8750 |
INM-CM4 | 1.5000 | 2.0000 |
IPSL-CM5A-LR | 1.8947 | 3.7500 |
IPSL-CM5B-LR | 1.8947 | 3.7500 |
IPSL-CM5A-MR | 1.2676 | 2.5000 |
MIROC-ESM | 2.7906 | 2.8125 |
MIROC-ESM-CHEM | 2.7906 | 2.8125 |
MIROC5 | 1.4008 | 1.4063 |
MPI-ESM-LR | 1.8653 | 1.8750 |
MPI-ESM-MR | 1.8653 | 1.8750 |
Variable or Test | Parameter | RCP4.5 | RCP8.5 |
---|---|---|---|
Main Covariate | |||
Estimated storminess | 27–35 storms/year | 23–32 storms/year | |
Storminess | None | None | |
Wave-storm threshold | |||
E | EA | None | |
None | None | ||
EA | SC | ||
SC | NAO | ||
EA | |||
D | EA | None | |
EA | |||
– | – | ||
– | – | ||
HAC is non-stationary? | Yes | Yes | |
Validated for 1979–2016? | Yes | Yes |
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Lin-Ye, J.; García-León, M.; Gràcia, V.; Ortego, M.I.; Stanica, A.; Sánchez-Arcilla, A. Multivariate Hybrid Modelling of Future Wave-Storms at the Northwestern Black Sea. Water 2018, 10, 221. https://doi.org/10.3390/w10020221
Lin-Ye J, García-León M, Gràcia V, Ortego MI, Stanica A, Sánchez-Arcilla A. Multivariate Hybrid Modelling of Future Wave-Storms at the Northwestern Black Sea. Water. 2018; 10(2):221. https://doi.org/10.3390/w10020221
Chicago/Turabian StyleLin-Ye, Jue, Manuel García-León, Vicente Gràcia, M. Isabel Ortego, Adrian Stanica, and Agustín Sánchez-Arcilla. 2018. "Multivariate Hybrid Modelling of Future Wave-Storms at the Northwestern Black Sea" Water 10, no. 2: 221. https://doi.org/10.3390/w10020221