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Ranking of CMIP5 GCM Skills in Simulating Observed Precipitation over the Lower Mekong Basin, Using an Improved Score-Based Method

1
Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
2
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Water 2018, 10(12), 1868; https://doi.org/10.3390/w10121868
Received: 11 November 2018 / Revised: 5 December 2018 / Accepted: 12 December 2018 / Published: 17 December 2018
(This article belongs to the Section Hydrology)
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Abstract

This study assessed the performances of 34 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) general circulation models (GCMs) in reproducing observed precipitation over the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB). Observations from gauge-based data of the Asian Precipitation-Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of Water Resources (APHRODITE) precipitation data were obtained from 1975 to 2004. An improved score-based method was used to rank the performance of the GCMs in reproducing the observed precipitation over the LMB. The results revealed that most GCMs effectively reproduced precipitation patterns for the mean annual cycle, but they generally overestimated the observed precipitation. The GCMs showed good ability in reproducing the time series characteristics of precipitation for the annual period compared to those for the wet and dry seasons. Meanwhile, the GCMs obviously reproduced the spatial characteristics of precipitation for the dry season better than those for annual time and the wet season. More than 50% of the GCMs failed to reproduce the positive trend of the observed precipitation for the wet season and the dry season (approximately 52.9% and 64.7%, respectively), and approximately 44.1% of the GCMs failed to reproduce positive trend for annual time over the LMB. Furthermore, it was also revealed that there existed different robust criteria for assessing the GCMs’ performances at a seasonal scale, and using multiple criteria was superior to a single criterion in assessing the GCMs’ performances. Overall, the better-performed GCMs were obtained, which can provide useful information for future precipitation projection and policy-making over the LMB. View Full-Text
Keywords: CMIP5 GCMs; improved score-based method; rank; performance; multiple criteria CMIP5 GCMs; improved score-based method; rank; performance; multiple criteria
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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited (CC BY 4.0).
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Ruan, Y.; Yao, Z.; Wang, R.; Liu, Z. Ranking of CMIP5 GCM Skills in Simulating Observed Precipitation over the Lower Mekong Basin, Using an Improved Score-Based Method. Water 2018, 10, 1868.

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