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Article

The Dynamic Character of Northern Hemisphere Flow Regimes in a Near-Term Climate Change Projection

1
Department of Mathematics and Meteorology, Northland College, Ashland, WI 54806, USA
2
A.M Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow 119017, Russia
3
Department of Physics, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow 119991, Russia
4
Atmospheric Science Program, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO 65202, USA
5
Department of Natural Resources Management and Land Cadastre, Belgorod State University, Belgorod 308015, Russia
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Department of Geosciences, University of Missouri—Kansas City, Kansas City, MO 64110, USA
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Atmosphere 2018, 9(1), 27; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos9010027
Received: 16 December 2017 / Revised: 11 January 2018 / Accepted: 11 January 2018 / Published: 16 January 2018
(This article belongs to the Section Meteorology)
The dynamic character of an enstrophy-based diagnostic, previously used in the study of atmospheric blocking, is examined here, in near-term future simulations from the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace Climate Model version 4 (IPSL-CM4) and version 5 (IPSL-CM5) climate models of the Northern Hemisphere flow for moderate climate change scenarios. Previous research has shown that integrated regional enstrophy (IE) increases during blocking onset and decay, which is a reflection of planetary-scale instability. In addition, IE has been shown previously to increase during flow regime transitions in general, even those not associated with blocking events. Here, a 31-year IE diagnostic time series is examined for changes in short term (5–40 days) planetary-scale variability that may correspond flow regime changes in an increased carbon dioxide environment. The time-series analysis herein indicates that the IE diagnostic provides evidence for approximately 30–35 atmospheric flow regime transitions per year in a warmer climate, which is similar to that of the control run and the latest 30-year observed climate, as derived from re-analyses. This result has implications regarding the predictability of weather in a warmer world. View Full-Text
Keywords: regime transition; blocking; climate change; climate model; enstrophy regime transition; blocking; climate change; climate model; enstrophy
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MDPI and ACS Style

Jensen, A.D.; Akperov, M.G.; Mokhov, I.I.; Lupo, A.R.; Sun, F. The Dynamic Character of Northern Hemisphere Flow Regimes in a Near-Term Climate Change Projection. Atmosphere 2018, 9, 27. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos9010027

AMA Style

Jensen AD, Akperov MG, Mokhov II, Lupo AR, Sun F. The Dynamic Character of Northern Hemisphere Flow Regimes in a Near-Term Climate Change Projection. Atmosphere. 2018; 9(1):27. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos9010027

Chicago/Turabian Style

Jensen, Andrew D., Mirseid G. Akperov, Igor I. Mokhov, Anthony R. Lupo, and Fengpeng Sun. 2018. "The Dynamic Character of Northern Hemisphere Flow Regimes in a Near-Term Climate Change Projection" Atmosphere 9, no. 1: 27. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos9010027

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