Trends in Intense Typhoon Minimum Sea Level Pressure
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Data and Analysis Methods
3. Results
Statistic | Quantile | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.15 | 0.10 | 0.05 | 0.025 | 0.01 | |
Trend (hPa/year) | 0.30 | 0.35 | 0.33 | 0.36 | 0.45 |
Standard Error (hPa/year) | 0.09 | 0.07 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.22 |
Probability of null | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
Statistic | Quantile | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.15 | 0.10 | 0.05 | 0.025 | 0.01 | |
Trend (hPa/year) | 0.15 | 0.00 | −0.17 | 0.00 | −0.16 |
Standard Error (hPa/year) | 0.20 | 0.15 | 0.18 | 0.32 | 0.29 |
Probability of null | 0.46 | 1.00 | 0.34 | 1.00 | 0.57 |
Statistic | Quantile | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.15 | 0.10 | 0.05 | 0.025 | 0.01 | |
Trend (hPa/year) | 0.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.45 | 0.56 |
Standard Error (hPa/year) | 0.26 | 0.25 | 0.40 | 0.65 | 0.45 |
Probability of null | 0.26 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.46 | 0.31 |
Statistic | Quantile | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.15 | 0.10 | 0.05 | 0.025 | 0.01 | |
Trend (hPa) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.00 | −4.84 |
Standard Error (hPa) | 1.90 | 1.82 | 1.67 | 2.29 | 2.79 |
Probability of null | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.40 | 0.08 |
4. Conclusions
- Application of quantile regression to the WMO best track data used here indicates a decrease in the intensity (increase in lifetime MSLP) with time.
- A likely source of the decrease is the change in measurement of MSLP with the cessation of routine aircraft reconnaissance in 1987. There is no significant trend in intense storms either before or after 1987 when the two periods are analyzed separately.
- While El Nino conditions (negative SOI) are associated with lower average MSLP (greater intensity), in agreement with previous findings, we found no significant dependence of MSLP on SOI for the most intense quantiles considered here, regardless of whether pressures based on [21,22] and JTWC are used.
Acknowledgements
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Durden, S.L. Trends in Intense Typhoon Minimum Sea Level Pressure. Atmosphere 2012, 3, 124-131. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos3010124
Durden SL. Trends in Intense Typhoon Minimum Sea Level Pressure. Atmosphere. 2012; 3(1):124-131. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos3010124
Chicago/Turabian StyleDurden, Stephen L. 2012. "Trends in Intense Typhoon Minimum Sea Level Pressure" Atmosphere 3, no. 1: 124-131. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos3010124
APA StyleDurden, S. L. (2012). Trends in Intense Typhoon Minimum Sea Level Pressure. Atmosphere, 3(1), 124-131. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos3010124