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Impact of Tropical Cyclones on Inhabited Areas of the SWIO Basin at Present and Future Horizons. Part 2: Modeling Component of the Research Program RENOVRISK-CYCLONE

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Laboratoire de l’Atmosphère et des Cyclones, Université de La Réunion, CNRS, Météo-France, 97400 Saint-Denis, France
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Laboratoire d’Aérologie, Université de Toulouse, UT3, CNRS, IRD, 31400 Toulouse, France
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Institute for Coastal Marine Research, Nelson Mandela University, Port-Elizabeth 6031, South Africa
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CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, 31057 Toulouse, France
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Center for Atmospheric REmote Sensing (CARE), Department of Astronomy and Atmospheric Sciences, Kyungpook National University, Daegu 41566, Korea
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Direction Interrégionale de Météo-France pour l’Océan Indien, 97400 Saint-Denis, France
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Laboratoire d’Océanographie Physique et Spatiale, Université de Brest, CNRS, Ifremer, IRD, IUEM, 29280 Plouzané, France
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Seychelles Meteorological Authority, Mahé 670311, Seychelles
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Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, Université de Paris, CNRS, 75005 Paris, France
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National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO 80304, USA
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Kelonia, Observatoire des Tortues Marines de La Réunion, 97436 Saint-Leu, France
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Observatoire des Sciences de l’Univers de La Réunion (UAR 3365 OSU-R), 97400 Saint-Denis, France
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Seychelles Islands Foundation, Mahé 670311, Seychelles
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Collecte Localisation Satellites (CLS), 29280 Brest, France
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Department of Physics, Faculty of Sciences, Eduardo Mondlane University, Maputo CP 257, Mozambique
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Institut et Observatoire de Géophysique d’Antisiranana, Université d’Antisiranana, Antananarivo 101, Madagascar
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Institut Supérieur de Technologie d’Antisiranana, Antsiranana 201, Madagascar
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Laboratoire GéoSciences Réunion (LGSR), Université de La Réunion, 97400 Saint-Denis, France
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Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, CA 92093, USA
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Mauritius Oceanography Institute, Albion 95410, Mauritius
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Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INAM), Maputo CP 256, Mozambique
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Corene Matyas
Atmosphere 2021, 12(6), 689; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12060689
Received: 30 April 2021 / Revised: 20 May 2021 / Accepted: 26 May 2021 / Published: 28 May 2021
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Tropical Cyclones in the Indian Ocean)
The ReNovRisk-Cyclone program aimed at developing an observation network in the south-west Indian ocean (SWIO) in close synergy with the implementation of numerical tools to model and analyze the impacts of tropical cyclones (TC) in the present and in a context of climate change. This paper addresses the modeling part of the program. First, a unique coupled system to simulate TCs in the SWIO is developed. The ocean–wave–atmosphere coupling is considered along with a coherent coupling between sea surface state, wind field, aerosol, microphysics, and radiation. This coupled system is illustrated through several simulations of TCs: the impact of air–sea flux parameterizations on the evolution of TC Fantala is examined, the full coupling developed during the program is illustrated on TC Idai, and the potential of novel observations like space-borne synthetic aperture radar and sea turtles to validate the atmosphere and ocean models is presented with TC Herold. Secondly, the evolution of cyclonic activity in the SWIO during the second half of the 21st century is assessed. It was addressed both using climate simulation and through the implementation of a pseudo global warming method in the high-resolution coupled modeling platform. Our results suggest that the Mascarene Archipelago should experience an increase of TC related hazards in the medium term. View Full-Text
Keywords: tropical cyclone; south-west Indian ocean; cloud-resolving model; ocean–wave–atmosphere coupling; climate modeling tropical cyclone; south-west Indian ocean; cloud-resolving model; ocean–wave–atmosphere coupling; climate modeling
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MDPI and ACS Style

Barthe, C.; Bousquet, O.; Bielli, S.; Tulet, P.; Pianezze, J.; Claeys, M.; Tsai, C.-L.; Thompson, C.; Bonnardot, F.; Chauvin, F.; Cattiaux, J.; Bouin, M.-N.; Amelie, V.; Barruol, G.; Calmer, R.; Ciccione, S.; Cordier, E.; Duong, Q.-P.; Durand, J.; Fleischer-Dogley, F.; Husson, R.; Lees, E.; Malardel, S.; Marquestaut, N.; Mavume, A.; Mékiès, D.; Mouche, A.; Ravoson, N.M.; Razafindradina, B.; Rindraharisaona, E.; Roberts, G.; Singh, M.; Zakariasy, L.; Zucule, J. Impact of Tropical Cyclones on Inhabited Areas of the SWIO Basin at Present and Future Horizons. Part 2: Modeling Component of the Research Program RENOVRISK-CYCLONE. Atmosphere 2021, 12, 689. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12060689

AMA Style

Barthe C, Bousquet O, Bielli S, Tulet P, Pianezze J, Claeys M, Tsai C-L, Thompson C, Bonnardot F, Chauvin F, Cattiaux J, Bouin M-N, Amelie V, Barruol G, Calmer R, Ciccione S, Cordier E, Duong Q-P, Durand J, Fleischer-Dogley F, Husson R, Lees E, Malardel S, Marquestaut N, Mavume A, Mékiès D, Mouche A, Ravoson NM, Razafindradina B, Rindraharisaona E, Roberts G, Singh M, Zakariasy L, Zucule J. Impact of Tropical Cyclones on Inhabited Areas of the SWIO Basin at Present and Future Horizons. Part 2: Modeling Component of the Research Program RENOVRISK-CYCLONE. Atmosphere. 2021; 12(6):689. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12060689

Chicago/Turabian Style

Barthe, Christelle, Olivier Bousquet, Soline Bielli, Pierre Tulet, Joris Pianezze, Marine Claeys, Chia-Lun Tsai, Callum Thompson, François Bonnardot, Fabrice Chauvin, Julien Cattiaux, Marie-Noëlle Bouin, Vincent Amelie, Guilhem Barruol, Radiance Calmer, Stéphane Ciccione, Emmanuel Cordier, Quoc-Phi Duong, Jonathan Durand, Frauke Fleischer-Dogley, Romain Husson, Edouard Lees, Sylvie Malardel, Nicolas Marquestaut, Alberto Mavume, Dominique Mékiès, Alexis Mouche, Navalona M. Ravoson, Bruno Razafindradina, Elisa Rindraharisaona, Gregory Roberts, Manvendra Singh, Lova Zakariasy, and Jonas Zucule. 2021. "Impact of Tropical Cyclones on Inhabited Areas of the SWIO Basin at Present and Future Horizons. Part 2: Modeling Component of the Research Program RENOVRISK-CYCLONE" Atmosphere 12, no. 6: 689. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12060689

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