Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on Geographical Distribution of Tea (Camellia sinensis L.) in Kenya with Maximum Entropy Model

Round 1

Reviewer 1 Report

Comments and Suggestions for Authors

Dear Authors,

The manuscript has the potential for final acceptance. However, it needs adjustments, adjustments and improvements in some sections. All suggestions, corrections and adjustments can be found in the attached file.

Comments for author File: Comments.pdf

Author Response

Comment 1. Improve the quality and sharpness of the figure, as well as include DEM.

Response 1. Improved and DEM is added. Thank you for ponting out this.

Comment 2. Authors should include more references to improve the discussions of results

Response 2. Revised. Thank you for suggesting this crucial comment

Author Response File: Author Response.pdf

Reviewer 2 Report

Comments and Suggestions for Authors

Geeral comments

Overal it is a good work, however there are somethinks to get better, 

1. Title: Ambiguos, general, for instance when you say "possible" and "distribution", you can changed by "prediction" and add geografical distribution . . 

2. Normally, it is very important to define objective, aim, goal, in order to focused on the discussion and of course in the conclusion, if it was reached

3. Keywards, normally keyboard are different in the title and inner abstrac

4. Introduction. I would like to read about the model, requierements, results of research, limits, etc

and the ,most important

5. Matherials and methods. If the authors introduce the requirements of the model, here you can explain how was used. It is necessary to define the data adquisition, previous treatment (if so), data curation, etc

6. Results and duscussion , I think it is a god results, however, insist, it is convenient the model description and data adqusition

Other specifics comments are in the manuscript

Comments for author File: Comments.pdf

Author Response

Comments 1: Introduction. I would like to read about the model, requirements, results of research, limits, etc

Response 1:  We have revised the introduction section by taking into account the comments.

Comment 2: Materials and methods. If the authors introduce the requirements of the model, here you can explain how it was used. It is necessary to define the data acquisition, previous treatment (if so), data curation, etc

Response 2: This comment is also constractive and incorporated in our manuscript.

 

Author Response File: Author Response.pdf

Reviewer 3 Report

Comments and Suggestions for Authors

Dear authors: 

The manuscript aims to assess the impact of climate change on the distribution of tea (Camellia sinensis L.) in Kenya using the MaxEnt model under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The study's primary contribution lies in its projection of potential shifts in tea-growing areas by the mid and late 21st century, highlighting the vulnerability of current tea-growing regions and the possible expansion of suitable areas to higher altitudes. The strengths of the paper include a detailed climate modeling approach and the practical implications of its findings for adaptation strategies in Kenya's tea industry.

The manuscript presents a comprehensive analysis of how climate change could influence tea cultivation in Kenya, with the MaxEnt model providing robust projections under various SSP scenarios. However, there are areas that could benefit from further refinement:

Testability of the Hypothesis: The study effectively tests the hypothesis that climate change will alter the spatial distribution of tea-growing regions in Kenya. However, incorporating a more diverse range of climatic and non-climatic variables could enhance the robustness of the projections.

The methodology section is thorough, yet the paper could benefit from a clearer explanation of how the selected bioclimatic variables were prioritized over others. Additionally, the decision-making process behind the selection of SSPs could be elaborated to provide a better understanding of their relevance to the study area.

Missing Controls: The study does not account for non-climatic factors that could influence tea distribution, such as soil quality, pest prevalence, and socio-economic factors. Including these controls would provide a more holistic view of the potential impacts on tea cultivation.

Review Comments

The paper covers the essential aspects of climate change impacts on tea cultivation. However, the review could be enhanced by comparing the findings with similar studies conducted in other tea-producing regions like India and Sri Lanka to provide a broader context.

The topic is highly relevant, given the economic importance of tea in Kenya and the growing concerns over climate change. The study fills a critical knowledge gap by providing localized projections under different climate scenarios.

While the study identifies significant shifts in tea-growing areas, it does not fully explore the socio-economic implications of these shifts. Future research could address how changes in tea cultivation zones might impact local communities and economies.

The references are generally appropriate, but the inclusion of more recent studies on the socio-economic impacts of climate change on agriculture would strengthen the discussion.

Specific Comments

Line 39-40: The statement on the increasing magnitude of climate change needs to be supported by recent data or references that provide a global perspective.

Line 72-73: The mention of "limited quantitative analysis" would benefit from a more detailed explanation or examples of what has been done before and how this study differs.

Figure 2: The AUC values are well-presented, but it would be useful to discuss the potential limitations of using AUC as the sole measure of model performance.

Table 2: The importance of each bioclimatic variable is discussed, but the manuscript would benefit from a more detailed explanation of why certain variables, like bio14 and bio16, are more influential in this context.

Section 4.2: The discussion of future suitable areas under climate change is thorough, but there is a lack of detail on how these shifts might impact tea quality, which is a critical factor for the industry.

Line 606-608: The recommendation for future research to include non-climatic factors is crucial, but the manuscript would be stronger if it provided specific examples of such factors and how they could be integrated into the model.

The bar plots included in the manuscript could benefit from significant improvements. The design of these plots is somewhat simplistic, and there are a few issues that detract from their effectiveness:

1. Legend Size: The legends are disproportionately large compared to the rest of the figure, which can make the plots appear unbalanced and cluttered. Reducing the size of the legends and ensuring they are appropriately scaled relative to the figure would improve readability.

2. Overall Design: The bar plots lack sophistication in their design, which can make the data harder to interpret at a glance. Consideration should be given to improving the overall aesthetics of these figures, possibly by using more refined color schemes, clearer axis labels, and consistent font sizes.

3. Data Presentation: While the data presented is valuable, the figures could be enhanced by including more detailed annotations or explanations directly within the figure. This would make them more informative and easier to understand without needing to refer back to the main text.

The figures in the manuscript, particularly those generated by the MaxEnt model, follow the standard presentation format typically seen in studies utilizing this tool. While informative, could benefit from improvements to enhance their clarity and visual appeal, such as adjusting the axes, scaling, and overlaying additional information. Utilizing these options to tailor the figures more closely to the study's needs would provide a more professional and polished presentation. You can use model outputs to generate your own figures.

 

 

Comments on the Quality of English Language

Minor revision are required.

Author Response

Comments 1:The statement on the increasing magnitude of climate change needs to be supported by recent data or references that provide a global perspective.

Response 1:Thank you so much for your comment. We modified it. 

Comment 2: Line 72-73: The mention of "limited quantitative analysis" would benefit from a more detailed explanation or examples of what has been done before and how this study differs.

Reponse 2: Thank you for pointing out this. We revised it.

Comments 3:The discussion of future suitable areas under climate change is thorough, but there is a lack of detail on how these shifts might impact tea quality, which is a critical factor for the industry.

Response 3. Thank you for pointing out. Yes, we revised it.

Author Response File: Author Response.pdf