Erev, I. et al. A Choice Prediction Competition for Market Entry Games: An Introduction. Games 2010, 1, 117-136
Experimental results | |||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The games | Entry at eq. | Entry rates | Efficiency | Alternations | |||||||||
# | K | ph | H | L | S | pure | symmetric | B1 | B2 | B1 | B2 | B1 | B2 |
1 | 2 | 0.04 | 70 | -3 | 5 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.71 | 0.80 | 2.77 | 2.66 | 0.16 | 0.16 |
2 | 2 | 0.23 | 30 | -9 | 4 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.55 | 0.62 | 2.64 | 2.75 | 0.25 | 0.23 |
3 | 2 | 0.67 | 1 | -2 | 3 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.88 | 0.94 | 2.39 | 2.24 | 0.10 | 0.04 |
4 | 2 | 0.73 | 30 | -80 | 4 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.71 | 0.64 | 2.58 | 2.57 | 0.28 | 0.27 |
5 | 2 | 0.80 | 20 | -80 | 5 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.66 | 0.67 | 2.50 | 2.67 | 0.29 | 0.27 |
6 | 2 | 0.83 | 4 | -20 | 3 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.73 | 0.82 | 2.45 | 2.50 | 0.24 | 0.18 |
7 | 2 | 0.94 | 6 | -90 | 5 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.86 | 0.87 | 2.34 | 2.38 | 0.13 | 0.11 |
8 | 2 | 0.95 | 1 | -20 | 5 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.86 | 0.91 | 2.48 | 2.31 | 0.12 | 0.08 |
9 | 2 | 0.96 | 4 | -90 | 3 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.87 | 0.90 | 2.36 | 2.34 | 0.14 | 0.08 |
10 | 3 | 0.10 | 70 | -8 | 4 | 0.75 | 0.77 | 0.42 | 0.48 | 1.22 | 1.11 | 0.29 | 0.25 |
11 | 3 | 0.90 | 9 | -80 | 4 | 0.75 | 0.77 | 0.80 | 0.73 | -0.33 | 0.29 | 0.18 | 0.25 |
12 | 3 | 0.91 | 7 | -70 | 6 | 0.75 | 0.77 | 0.76 | 0.83 | 0.10 | -0.41 | 0.19 | 0.12 |
13 | 4 | 0.06 | 60 | -4 | 2 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.42 | 0.41 | 0.52 | 0.84 | 0.22 | 0.15 |
14 | 4 | 0.20 | 40 | -10 | 4 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.48 | 0.46 | -0.34 | 0.04 | 0.31 | 0.31 |
15 | 4 | 0.31 | 20 | -9 | 4 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.49 | 0.44 | -0.07 | 0.30 | 0.34 | 0.38 |
16 | 4 | 0.60 | 4 | -6 | 2 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.56 | 0.58 | -0.27 | -0.26 | 0.22 | 0.26 |
17 | 4 | 0.60 | 40 | -60 | 3 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.58 | 0.55 | -0.96 | -0.20 | 0.28 | 0.25 |
18 | 4 | 0.73 | 3 | -8 | 2 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.57 | 0.55 | -0.29 | 0.09 | 0.24 | 0.20 |
19 | 4 | 0.80 | 20 | -80 | 2 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.64 | 0.63 | -1.30 | -1.21 | 0.28 | 0.27 |
20 | 4 | 0.90 | 1 | -9 | 6 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.53 | 0.48 | 0.12 | 0.63 | 0.21 | 0.16 |
21 | 4 | 0.96 | 3 | -70 | 3 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.65 | 0.62 | -0.84 | -0.38 | 0.23 | 0.18 |
22 | 5 | 0.02 | 80 | -2 | 3 | 0.25 | 0.33 | 0.36 | 0.31 | 0.24 | 0.64 | 0.17 | 0.17 |
23 | 5 | 0.07 | 90 | -7 | 3 | 0.25 | 0.33 | 0.39 | 0.24 | -0.81 | 0.34 | 0.19 | 0.13 |
24 | 5 | 0.53 | 80 | -90 | 5 | 0.25 | 0.33 | 0.65 | 0.58 | -3.41 | -2.44 | 0.27 | 0.36 |
25 | 5 | 0.80 | 1 | -4 | 2 | 0.25 | 0.33 | 0.45 | 0.42 | -0.31 | 0.11 | 0.20 | 0.18 |
26 | 5 | 0.88 | 4 | -30 | 3 | 0.25 | 0.33 | 0.52 | 0.49 | -0.95 | -0.57 | 0.22 | 0.21 |
27 | 5 | 0.93 | 5 | -70 | 4 | 0.25 | 0.33 | 0.57 | 0.57 | -1.63 | -1.43 | 0.27 | 0.20 |
28 | 6 | 0.10 | 90 | -10 | 5 | 0.25 | 0.22 | 0.26 | 0.27 | -0.13 | 0.07 | 0.22 | 0.19 |
29 | 6 | 0.19 | 30 | -7 | 3 | 0.25 | 0.22 | 0.39 | 0.32 | -1.35 | -0.45 | 0.27 | 0.26 |
30 | 6 | 0.29 | 50 | -20 | 3 | 0.25 | 0.22 | 0.47 | 0.48 | -2.74 | -2.43 | 0.38 | 0.36 |
31 | 6 | 0.46 | 7 | -6 | 6 | 0.25 | 0.22 | 0.38 | 0.34 | -0.90 | -0.38 | 0.23 | 0.24 |
32 | 6 | 0.57 | 6 | -8 | 4 | 0.25 | 0.22 | 0.44 | 0.39 | -1.56 | -0.59 | 0.26 | 0.27 |
33 | 6 | 0.82 | 20 | -90 | 3 | 0.25 | 0.22 | 0.63 | 0.55 | -5.33 | -3.14 | 0.26 | 0.21 |
34 | 6 | 0.88 | 8 | -60 | 4 | 0.25 | 0.22 | 0.57 | 0.50 | -3.30 | -1.96 | 0.16 | 0.19 |
35 | 7 | 0.06 | 90 | -6 | 4 | 0.25 | 0.14 | 0.31 | 0.35 | -1.40 | -1.43 | 0.29 | 0.21 |
36 | 7 | 0.21 | 30 | -8 | 3 | 0.25 | 0.14 | 0.39 | 0.31 | -2.20 | -1.04 | 0.30 | 0.23 |
37 | 7 | 0.50 | 80 | -80 | 5 | 0.25 | 0.14 | 0.51 | 0.55 | -4.18 | -4.78 | 0.34 | 0.32 |
38 | 7 | 0.69 | 9 | -20 | 5 | 0.25 | 0.14 | 0.46 | 0.34 | -2.62 | -0.88 | 0.25 | 0.23 |
39 | 7 | 0.81 | 7 | -30 | 2 | 0.25 | 0.14 | 0.41 | 0.34 | -2.25 | -0.93 | 0.22 | 0.21 |
40 | 7 | 0.91 | 1 | -10 | 2 | 0.25 | 0.14 | 0.34 | 0.27 | -0.71 | -0.30 | 0.19 | 0.17 |
Means | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.56 | 0.54 | -0.39 | 0.04 | 0.23 | 0.21 |
Variable | Mean correlation | Proportion of positive correlations |
---|---|---|
Entry rate | 0.249 | 0.844 |
Maximization | 0.058 | 0.611 |
Alternation | 0.415 | 0.983 |
Recency | 0.281 | 0.888 |
Model | Fitted parameters | Normalized Mean Squared Deviation Scores by statistic and block | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Entry rates | Efficiency | Alteration | Mean | |||||
Block: | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | ||
Pure | 26.52 | 21.56 | 39.41 | 28.01 | 49.50 | 35.26 | 33.38 | |
Symmetric | 29.57 | 25.11 | 21.13 | 13.24 | 30.59 | 25.95 | 24.26 | |
RL | λ = 4, w = 0.01 | 8.57 | 16.37 | 5.19 | 8.84 | 19.14 | 12.22 | 11.72 |
NRL | λ = 12, w = 0.025 | 6.36 | 14.03 | 3.59 | 7.35 | 4.58 | 1.53 | 6.24 |
SFP | λ = 1.5, w = 0.1 | 5.91 | 5.36 | 9.37 | 14.99 | 6.53 | 3.79 | 7.66 |
NFP | λ = 4, w = 0.15 | 4.75 | 4.16 | 3.60 | 6.13 | 2.70 | 3.80 | 4.19 |
EWA | λ = 0.7, φ = 0.8, δ = 0.5, ρ = 0.4 | 10.06 | 8.91 | 4.69 | 9.22 | 4.38 | 2.49 | 6.62 |
SAW | εi ~ U[0,0.02], wi ~ U[0,1], ρi ~ U[0,0.02], and µi = {1, 2, or 3}. | 3.93 | 2.49 | 1.87 | 2.04 | 4.18 | 5.37 | 3.31 |
I-SAW | εi ~ U[0,0.24], wi ~ U[0,0.8], ρi ~ U[0,0.2], πi ~ U[0,0.6], and µi = {1, 2, or 3}. | 1.56 | 1.19 | 1.37 | 1.47 | 1.43 | 1.30 | 1.38 |
The games | Entry rates | Efficiency | Alternations | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
# | K | Ph | h | l | Sf | B1 | B2 | B1 | B2 | B1 | B2 |
1 | 2 | 0.04 | 70 | -3 | 5 | 0.78 | 0.81 | 2.60 | 2.56 | 0.17 | 0.13 |
2 | 2 | 0.23 | 30 | -9 | 4 | 0.58 | 0.62 | 2.39 | 2.62 | 0.24 | 0.22 |
3 | 2 | 0.67 | 1 | -2 | 3 | 0.90 | 0.91 | 2.33 | 2.32 | 0.10 | 0.08 |
4 | 2 | 0.73 | 30 | -80 | 4 | 0.64 | 0.64 | 2.47 | 2.59 | 0.26 | 0.25 |
5 | 2 | 0.80 | 20 | -80 | 5 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 2.47 | 2.61 | 0.24 | 0.23 |
6 | 2 | 0.83 | 4 | -20 | 3 | 0.77 | 0.78 | 2.49 | 2.57 | 0.20 | 0.18 |
7 | 2 | 0.94 | 6 | -90 | 5 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 2.39 | 2.49 | 0.15 | 0.14 |
8 | 2 | 0.95 | 1 | -20 | 5 | 0.84 | 0.85 | 2.42 | 2.47 | 0.13 | 0.11 |
9 | 2 | 0.96 | 4 | -90 | 3 | 0.84 | 0.86 | 2.35 | 2.43 | 0.13 | 0.11 |
10 | 3 | 0.10 | 70 | -8 | 4 | 0.42 | 0.45 | 0.97 | 1.23 | 0.23 | 0.21 |
11 | 3 | 0.90 | 9 | -80 | 4 | 0.74 | 0.75 | -0.06 | 0.11 | 0.19 | 0.18 |
12 | 3 | 0.91 | 7 | -70 | 6 | 0.76 | 0.76 | -0.15 | 0.05 | 0.18 | 0.17 |
13 | 4 | 0.06 | 60 | -4 | 2 | 0.41 | 0.43 | 0.22 | 0.34 | 0.24 | 0.22 |
14 | 4 | 0.20 | 40 | -10 | 4 | 0.43 | 0.44 | -0.04 | 0.25 | 0.27 | 0.25 |
15 | 4 | 0.31 | 20 | -9 | 4 | 0.48 | 0.49 | -0.22 | 0.01 | 0.29 | 0.28 |
16 | 4 | 0.60 | 4 | -6 | 2 | 0.52 | 0.52 | -0.20 | -0.05 | 0.30 | 0.28 |
17 | 4 | 0.60 | 40 | -60 | 3 | 0.55 | 0.55 | -0.78 | -0.47 | 0.29 | 0.28 |
18 | 4 | 0.73 | 3 | -8 | 2 | 0.53 | 0.52 | -0.20 | -0.08 | 0.29 | 0.27 |
19 | 4 | 0.80 | 20 | -80 | 2 | 0.65 | 0.64 | -1.65 | -1.23 | 0.24 | 0.24 |
20 | 4 | 0.90 | 1 | -9 | 6 | 0.52 | 0.52 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.25 | 0.23 |
21 | 4 | 0.96 | 3 | -70 | 3 | 0.61 | 0.59 | -0.80 | -0.51 | 0.21 | 0.19 |
22 | 5 | 0.02 | 80 | -2 | 3 | 0.35 | 0.35 | -0.08 | 0.06 | 0.23 | 0.20 |
23 | 5 | 0.07 | 90 | -7 | 3 | 0.31 | 0.32 | -0.42 | -0.05 | 0.21 | 0.19 |
24 | 5 | 0.53 | 80 | -90 | 5 | 0.52 | 0.52 | -2.03 | -1.59 | 0.29 | 0.28 |
25 | 5 | 0.80 | 1 | -4 | 2 | 0.40 | 0.40 | -0.24 | -0.10 | 0.25 | 0.23 |
26 | 5 | 0.88 | 4 | -30 | 3 | 0.47 | 0.46 | -0.89 | -0.73 | 0.25 | 0.22 |
27 | 5 | 0.93 | 5 | -70 | 4 | 0.51 | 0.50 | -1.43 | -1.08 | 0.24 | 0.21 |
28 | 6 | 0.10 | 90 | -10 | 5 | 0.31 | 0.31 | -1.08 | -0.63 | 0.22 | 0.20 |
29 | 6 | 0.19 | 30 | -7 | 3 | 0.36 | 0.36 | -1.28 | -0.90 | 0.26 | 0.24 |
30 | 6 | 0.29 | 50 | -20 | 3 | 0.42 | 0.42 | -2.05 | -1.62 | 0.29 | 0.27 |
31 | 6 | 0.46 | 7 | -6 | 6 | 0.35 | 0.35 | -0.86 | -0.67 | 0.27 | 0.24 |
32 | 6 | 0.57 | 6 | -8 | 4 | 0.36 | 0.35 | -0.94 | -0.70 | 0.27 | 0.25 |
33 | 6 | 0.82 | 20 | -90 | 3 | 0.60 | 0.57 | -4.69 | -3.73 | 0.25 | 0.24 |
34 | 6 | 0.88 | 8 | -60 | 4 | 0.47 | 0.46 | -2.20 | -1.83 | 0.25 | 0.22 |
35 | 7 | 0.06 | 90 | -6 | 4 | 0.26 | 0.26 | -1.19 | -0.68 | 0.20 | 0.18 |
36 | 7 | 0.21 | 30 | -8 | 3 | 0.34 | 0.33 | -1.77 | -1.32 | 0.26 | 0.24 |
37 | 7 | 0.50 | 80 | -80 | 5 | 0.49 | 0.48 | -4.31 | -3.61 | 0.29 | 0.28 |
38 | 7 | 0.69 | 9 | -20 | 5 | 0.37 | 0.36 | -1.84 | -1.52 | 0.26 | 0.24 |
39 | 7 | 0.81 | 7 | -30 | 2 | 0.37 | 0.36 | -1.81 | -1.50 | 0.26 | 0.23 |
40 | 7 | 0.91 | 1 | -10 | 2 | 0.29 | 0.28 | -0.76 | -0.58 | 0.22 | 0.19 |
Means | 0.525 | 0.526 | -0.270 | -0.011 | 0.234 | 0.215 | |||||
Correlation with the experimental results | 0.973 | 0.979 | 0.982 | 0.970 | 0.750 | 0.834 |
References and Notes
- Erev, I.; Ert, E.; Roth, A.E. A choice prediction competition for market entry games: An introduction. Games 2010, 1, 117–136. [Google Scholar]
© 2010 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an Open Access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/).
Share and Cite
Erev, I.; Ert, E.; Roth, A.E. Erev, I. et al. A Choice Prediction Competition for Market Entry Games: An Introduction. Games 2010, 1, 117-136. Games 2010, 1, 221-225. https://doi.org/10.3390/g1030221
Erev I, Ert E, Roth AE. Erev, I. et al. A Choice Prediction Competition for Market Entry Games: An Introduction. Games 2010, 1, 117-136. Games. 2010; 1(3):221-225. https://doi.org/10.3390/g1030221
Chicago/Turabian StyleErev, Ido, Eyal Ert, and Alvin E. Roth. 2010. "Erev, I. et al. A Choice Prediction Competition for Market Entry Games: An Introduction. Games 2010, 1, 117-136" Games 1, no. 3: 221-225. https://doi.org/10.3390/g1030221
APA StyleErev, I., Ert, E., & Roth, A. E. (2010). Erev, I. et al. A Choice Prediction Competition for Market Entry Games: An Introduction. Games 2010, 1, 117-136. Games, 1(3), 221-225. https://doi.org/10.3390/g1030221