Climate and Land-Use Change Effects on Soil Carbon Stocks over 150 Years in Wisconsin, USA
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Area
2.2. Legacy Soil Profile Data
2.3. Environmental Covariates
2.4. An Empirical Soil Organic Carbon (SOC) Model (1980–2002)
2.5. Backward Prediction to 1850 and 1938
2.6. Validation and Uncertainty Analysis
2.7. Soil Organic Carbon Stock (SOCS) Change and Percent Projected Natural Vegetation Soil Carbon
3. Results
3.1. Descriptive Statistics of SOC
3.2. Changing Climate and Land Cover from 1850 to 2002
3.3. Distribution of SOCS in Wisconsin
3.4. Importance of Factors Affecting SOC
3.5. SOCS Changes over 150 Years
4. Discussion
4.1. Prediction and Distribution of SOCS
4.2. Soil Carbon under Land Cover Change Only
4.3. Soil Carbon under Climate Change and Agricultural Management
4.4. Implications for Land Use and Management under Climate Change
5. Conclusions
- The loss of SOCS between 1850 and 1980 in Wisconsin, USA, was most likely due to land cover change while the increase of SOCS from 1980 to 2002 was the result of improved soil management practices;
- SOCS changes are affected by land cover and differ by soil type;
- Location-specific management should be developed to increase SOCS under climate change;
- This modified space-for-time substitution approach needs to be tested in other regions of the world to further investigate the influences of the location-specific carbon management practices and climate change on SOCS changes.
Author Contributions
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A
Category | Depth (m) | No. | Min. (%) | Mean (%) | Median (%) | Max. (%) | SD (%) | CV (%) | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Soil order | Alfisols | 0–0.05 | 263 | 0.2 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 10.9 | 2.0 | 67.5 |
Alfisols | 0.05–0.15 | 263 | 0.2 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 8.0 | 1.1 | 54.2 | |
Alfisols | 0.15–0.30 | 263 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 5.4 | 0.6 | 73.6 | |
Entisols | 0–0.05 | 49 | 0.1 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 19.3 | 3.0 | 128.5 | |
Entisols | 0.05–0.15 | 49 | 0.1 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 17.4 | 2.5 | 140.3 | |
Entisols | 0.15–0.30 | 49 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 9.8 | 1.4 | 151.0 | |
Inceptisols | 0–0.05 | 21 | 0.3 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 16.8 | 3.6 | 92.8 | |
Inceptisols | 0.05–0.15 | 21 | 0.3 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 12.7 | 2.6 | 108.8 | |
Inceptisols | 0.15–0.30 | 21 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 108.0 | |
Mollisols | 0–0.05 | 48 | 0.5 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 5.0 | 1.2 | 64.3 | |
Mollisols | 0.05–0.15 | 48 | 0.4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 4.5 | 1.0 | 62.0 | |
Mollisols | 0.15–0.30 | 48 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 4.1 | 0.7 | 64.8 | |
Spodosols | 0–0.05 | 152 | 0.0 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 68.4 | 9.5 | 171.7 | |
Spodosols | 0.05–0.15 | 152 | 0.0 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 57.8 | 7.6 | 214.4 | |
Spodosols | 0.15–0.30 | 152 | 0.1 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 42.8 | 4.5 | 259.1 | |
Land cover | Grassland | 0–0.05 | 3 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 43.1 |
Grassland | 0.05–0.15 | 3 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 38.8 | |
Grassland | 0.15–0.30 | 3 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 45.6 | |
Cropland | 0–0.05 | 113 | 0.3 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 9.4 | 1.7 | 70.8 | |
Cropland | 0.05–0.15 | 113 | 0.3 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 8.0 | 1.3 | 66.1 | |
Cropland | 0.15–0.30 | 113 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 5.4 | 0.7 | 77.7 | |
Forest | 0–0.05 | 282 | 0.0 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 68.4 | 7.3 | 161.7 | |
Forest | 0.05–0.15 | 282 | 0.0 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 57.8 | 5.8 | 200.2 | |
Forest | 0.15–0.30 | 282 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 42.8 | 3.4 | 256.2 | |
Pasture | 0–0.05 | 116 | 0.1 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 8.4 | 1.5 | 64.9 | |
Pasture | 0.05–0.15 | 116 | 0.1 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 4.6 | 0.8 | 48.9 | |
Pasture | 0.15–0.30 | 116 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 2.7 | 0.4 | 50.8 | |
Wetland | 0–0.05 | 19 | 0.7 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 10.9 | 3.1 | 79.8 | |
Wetland | 0.05–0.15 | 19 | 0.5 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 66.9 | |
Wetland | 0.15–0.30 | 19 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 64.8 |
Soil Order | Land Cover | 1850–1938 | 1938–1980 | 1980–2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|
Alfisols | Forest | <–0.1 | <+0.1 | <+0.1 |
Grassland | <–0.1 | <–0.1 | 0.2 | |
Cropland | – | <+0.1 | 0.1 | |
Pasture | – | <+0.1 | 0.1 | |
Wetland | <–0.1 | <+0.1 | 0.1 | |
Entisols | Forest | <–0.1 | <+0.1 | 0.1 |
Grassland | <–0.1 | <–0.1 | 0.1 | |
Cropland | – | – | – | |
Pasture | – | – | – | |
Wetland | <–0.1 | <+0.1 | 0.2 | |
Inceptisols | Forest | <–0.1 | <–0.1 | 0.2 |
Grassland | <–0.1 | <–0.1 | 0.2 | |
Cropland | – | – | – | |
Pasture | – | – | – | |
Wetland | <–0.1 | <+0.1 | 0.2 | |
Mollisols | Forest | –0.1 | <+0.1 | 0.1 |
Grassland | <–0.1 | <–0.1 | 0.1 | |
Cropland | – | – | – | |
Pasture | – | – | – | |
Wetland | –0.1 | <+0.1 | 0.1 | |
Spodosols | Forest | <–0.1 | <–0.1 | 0.3 |
Grassland | <–0.1 | <–0.1 | 0.5 | |
Cropland | – | <+0.1 | 0.1 | |
Pasture | – | – | – | |
Wetland | <–0.1 | <+0.1 | 0.3 |
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Category | Variables | Spatial Resolution | Temporal Scale | Source |
---|---|---|---|---|
Soil | Clay | 100 m | Stable | [37] |
Silt | 100 m | Stable | [37] | |
Sand | 100 m | Stable | [37] | |
Bulk density | 100 m | Stable | [37] | |
pH | 100 m | Stable | [37] | |
Climate | Annual temperature | 1 km | Yearly, 1980-2002 | Daymet Version 3 |
Annual precipitation | 1 km | Yearly, 1980-2002 | Daymet Version 3 | |
Annual temperature | 1 km | 1938 | Same as 1980 | |
Annual precipitation | 1 km | 1938 | Same as 1980 | |
Annual temperature | 1 km | 1850 | [41] | |
Annual precipitation | 1 km | 1850 | [42,43] | |
Organism | Land cover | 250 m | Yearly, 1938-2002 | Resampled from [44] |
Land cover | – | 1850 | [45,46] | |
Topography | Elevation (m) | 30 m | Stable | Downloaded from the USGS |
Slope | 30 m | Stable | Calculated using SAGA GIS [39] | |
Aspect | 30 m | Stable | Calculated using SAGA GIS [39] | |
Hillshade | 30 m | Stable | Calculated using SAGA GIS [39] | |
Topographic wetness index (TWI) | 30 m | Stable | Calculated using SAGA GIS [39] | |
Multiresolution index of valley bottom flatness (MRVBF) | 30 m | Stable | Calculated using SAGA GIS [39] |
Category | No. | 1980–1990 | No. | 1991–2002 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0–0.05 m | 0.05–0.15 m | 0.15–0.30 m | 0–0.05 m | 0.05–0.15 m | 0.15–0.30 m | |||||
Soil order | Alfisols | 154 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 109 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | |
Entisols | 20 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 29 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | ||
Inceptisols | 12 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 9 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 0.8 | ||
Mollisols | 18 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 30 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.1 | ||
Spodosols | 100 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 52 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.1 | ||
Land cover | Forest | 169 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 121 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 0.9 | |
Grassland | 3 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.0 | – | – | – | – | ||
Cropland | 61 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 57 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.9 | ||
Pasture | 70 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 49 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.7 | ||
Wetland | 12 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 8 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 0.5 |
Dataset | Soil Profiles | SOC Samples | R2 | Lin’s Concordance | RMSE (%) | ME (%) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Calibration | 412 | 2,207 | 0.89 | 0.90 | 2.04 | 0.01 |
Validation | 138 | 734 | 0.48 | 0.67 | 2.22 | 0.62 |
Period | Rate of Change (ton ha−1 year−1) | Total (Mton) | Potential Causes |
---|---|---|---|
1850–1938 | –0.1–0 | –41.4 | Land cover changes, mainly deforestation (conversion of forest to cropland and pasture). High erosion rates |
1938–1980 | 0–+0.1 | +0.5 | Relatively stable climate and a balance between deforestation (1938–1950) and afforestation (1950–1980); erosion controlled in large parts of the state |
1980–2002 | +0.2 | +39.8 | Increased carbon production due to increasing temperature, increased irrigation and N fertilization and better soil management (e.g., decreased erosion, reduced tillage, crop rotation and use of legume and cover crops) In some areas, increased carbon loss due to soil erosion, deforestation, and cultivation |
1850–1938 | 1938–1980 | 1980–2002 | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Soil order | Alfisols | <–0.1 | <+0.1 | +0.1 |
Entisols | <–0.1 | <+0.1 | +0.1 | |
Inceptisols | <–0.1 | <–0.1 | +0.2 | |
Mollisols | –0.1 | <+0.1 | +0.1 | |
Spodosols | <–0.1 | <–0.1 | +0.4 | |
Land cover | Forest | <–0.1 | <+0.1 | +0.1 |
Grassland* | <–0.1 | <–0.1 | +0.3 | |
Cropland | – | <+0.1 | +0.1 | |
Pasture | <–0.1 | <+0.1 | +0.1 | |
Wetland | – | <+0.1 | +0.2 |
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Huang, J.; Hartemink, A.E.; Zhang, Y. Climate and Land-Use Change Effects on Soil Carbon Stocks over 150 Years in Wisconsin, USA. Remote Sens. 2019, 11, 1504. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs11121504
Huang J, Hartemink AE, Zhang Y. Climate and Land-Use Change Effects on Soil Carbon Stocks over 150 Years in Wisconsin, USA. Remote Sensing. 2019; 11(12):1504. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs11121504
Chicago/Turabian StyleHuang, Jingyi, Alfred E. Hartemink, and Yakun Zhang. 2019. "Climate and Land-Use Change Effects on Soil Carbon Stocks over 150 Years in Wisconsin, USA" Remote Sensing 11, no. 12: 1504. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs11121504