Estimation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from the EU, US, China, and India up to 2060 in Comparison with Their Pledges under the Paris Agreement
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Emission Model Based on Final Consumption by Sector
2.2. Non-Fossil CO2 GHG Emissions Data
3. Results and Discussion
3.1. China
3.2. EU
3.3. US
3.4. India
3.5. Comparisons and Actions among Different Countries
4. Conclusions
- (1)
- In API, with all existing energy policies fully implemented, the EU’s emissions fell from 4160 MtCO2e in 2020 to 2340 MtCO2e in 2060, while the US’s emissions fell from 6330 to 4020 MtCO2e during the same period. However, if the CPP were to be abandoned, the US’s GHG emissions would remain above 6000 MtCO2e/year until 2060. China’s emissions peaked in 2030 (14,428 ± 747 MtCO2e) and then rapidly slowed, while India’s emissions grew until 2060 and may reach 10,000 MtCO2e.
- (2)
- The INDCs for the EU and US were remarkably ambitious in terms of emission reductions compared with BAU. The US is aiming for a reduction of more than 700 MtCO2e in 2020 and 1300 MtCO2e in 2025, while the EU is aiming for a reduction of more than 300 MtCO2e in 2020 and 1100 MtCO2e in 2030. It was found that the EU is probably able to achieve its pledge, while the US will still have a deficit of 370 MtCO2e in 2025 under the CPP.
- (3)
- In BAU, China’s GHG emissions were almost equal to the minimum INDC target in terms of intensity (GHG emission per GDP), but the peak occurred in 2044 (19,409 ± 1124 MtCO2e), which was 14 years later than the Chinese pledge. India’s emissions were already close to the strict INDC emission intensity target. In API, China and India both achieved an extra reduction of about 2000 MtCO2e exceeding their INDC targets in 2030.
- (4)
- Acceleration of clean energy process is essential to reach a more ambitious global reduction. Developed countries need incentive policies to ensure their target in the next decade and provide developing countries with technology support to help them reverse the increasing trend on fossil consumption.
Acknowledgments
Author Contributions
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Variables | Available Regions | Functions 1 | Explained Variance |
---|---|---|---|
Share of agriculture in GDP | World | y = 1 − Gp^0.886/(619^0.886 + Gp^0.886) | 0.924 |
Share of service in GDP | World | y = Arctan(Gp × 1.83 × 10−4) × 0.814/(Pi/2) | 0.685 |
Final energy intensity of agriculture 2 | Developing countries of Europe and Central Asia and China | y = (0.0033 + 0.0207 × Gp)^(−1/1.23) | 0.974 |
Others in the world | y = 4.41 × (1 + Gp)^(−0.209) | 0.728 | |
Final energy intensity of industry | Developing countries of South Asia, Africa and Latin America | y = 49.1 × (1 + Gp)^(−0.286) | 0.862 |
Others in the world | y = (6.22 × 10−5 + 6.13 × 10−4 × Gp)^(−1/1.38) | 0.952 | |
Final energy intensity of service | Europe and developing countries of Central Asia | y = 44.8 × (1 + Gp)^(−0.436) | 0.510 |
Other developing countries | y = 1/(33.0 × Gp^(1.00175 − 1) − 32.8) | 0.554 | |
Developed countries of America | y = 935 × (1 + Gp)^(−1.17) | 0.953 | |
Final energy intensity of household | World | y = 1/(0.00656 × Gp^(1.73 − 1) − 0.00186) | 0.933 |
Final energy intensity of others | World | y = 1/(0.242 × Gp^(1.39 − 1) − 0.0974) | 0.656 |
Share of non-energy use in final consumption | World | y = 0.126 − 0.126/(1 + (Gp/4.64)^0.944) | 0.596 |
Share of electricity and heat in final consumption | World (excl. Middle East) | y = 0.0475 × Gp^0.0574 | 0.691 |
Ratio of fossil/clean energy in final consumption | World (excl. Middle East) | z = (Gp − 14)/13, y = 35.9 × exp(1 − exp(−z)−z) | 0.470 |
Countries | 2020 Targets | 2025 or 2030 Targets |
---|---|---|
China | 40–45% emissions reduction per GDP below 2005 levels; non-fossil share of energy supply to 15% | 60–65% emissions reduction per GDP below 2005 levels; non-fossil share of energy supply to 20% |
EU | 20–30% emissions reduction below 1990 levels | 40% emissions reduction below 1990 levels |
US | 17% emissions reduction below 2005 levels | 26–28% emissions reduction below 2005 levels |
India | 20–25% emissions reduction per GDP below 2005 levels | 33–35% emissions reduction per GDP below 2005 levels; non-fossil share of cumulative power generation capacity to 40% |
Countries | 2020 | 2025 or 2030 | 2020 | 2025 or 2030 |
---|---|---|---|---|
BAU—INDC | INDC—API | |||
China | −339 MtCO2e | 1039 MtCO2e | 1560 MtCO2e | 2268 MtCO2e |
EU | 336 MtCO2e | 1140 MtCO2e | 90 MtCO2e | −122 MtCO2e |
US | 732 MtCO2e | 1382 MtCO2e | −354 MtCO2e | −554 MtCO2e |
India | −28 MtCO2e | −25 MtCO2e | 867 MtCO2e | 2095 MtCO2e |
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Liu, Y.; Wang, F.; Zheng, J. Estimation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from the EU, US, China, and India up to 2060 in Comparison with Their Pledges under the Paris Agreement. Sustainability 2017, 9, 1587. https://doi.org/10.3390/su9091587
Liu Y, Wang F, Zheng J. Estimation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from the EU, US, China, and India up to 2060 in Comparison with Their Pledges under the Paris Agreement. Sustainability. 2017; 9(9):1587. https://doi.org/10.3390/su9091587
Chicago/Turabian StyleLiu, Yang, Fang Wang, and Jingyun Zheng. 2017. "Estimation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from the EU, US, China, and India up to 2060 in Comparison with Their Pledges under the Paris Agreement" Sustainability 9, no. 9: 1587. https://doi.org/10.3390/su9091587