This paper presents the concept of the generalized power source in an active distribution network. After the energy storage system (ESS), distributed generators (DG), and demand-side controllable load are connected to the active distribution network, part of the system load can be undertaken by these ESS, DG, and controllable load instead of relying on the capacity of the substation, which greatly improves the reliability of the system. The above-mentioned distributed energy resources in the active distribution network are collectively referred to as the generalized power source (GPS). Substation credible capacity refers to the capacity of the GPS to supply the distribution network that is equivalent at the high voltage distribution network level when considering the faults of the main transformer, 110 kV lines, and circuit breakers. Considering the uncertainties and control strategies of GPS, this paper takes a specific distribution area as the background to study its substituted substation capacity. Based on a sequential Monte Carlo evaluation framework and the principle of constant reliability, an evaluation method of the GPS credible capacity is proposed. In order to verify the effectiveness of the method proposed in this paper, the credible capacity of various typical connection modes of a high voltage distribution network is quantitatively analyzed in the case study, which can provide a reference for the capacity planning of an active distribution network substation and grid structure selection.
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