The evaluation results can be utilized as data for decision-making in two areas: (1) Which industrial parks are vulnerable to floods and need government support? (2) For what risk items do companies need government support in order to reduce the country’s overall flood risk?
3.2.1. Which Industrial Parks Are Vulnerable to Floods and Need Government Support
The hazard value of each company’s location was evaluated according to climatic exposure using indicators. Each indicator was standardized as shown in Equation (2), and ranged from 0 to 1.0 (Figure 3
A). Gwangyang National Industrial Park (No. 2) had the highest rated value (0.64) and average grade (3.60). The average grade was derived by considering both baseline and future (for the 2030s and the 2050s, respectively) hazard grades. The industrial park currently belongs to the fifth highest hazard grade. However, it is predicted that the risk grades of the location will somewhat decrease in the future, to the third and fourth grade. On the other hand, Gumi High Tech Valley (No. 5) was rated the lowest value and grade. The average future hazard level of this industrial park was 1.20. Currently, the hazard is grade 2, but in the future, the hazard will be further reduced to grade 1. High-hazard areas are regions with a high probability of flooding.
levels were calculated by multiplying hazard and vulnerability grades and classified into three levels using a 5-by-5 risk matrix. In Figure 3
below, the graph at the bottom is multiplied by the grade of each hazard and vulnerability. The average level of current and future RiskLocation
was largest at the Sam-Il Resource Reserve Park (No. 20) at 15.00, because the hazard grade has a rating of 2 to 4, but the vulnerability grade has a rating of 5. This means that the risk is significantly higher than in other industrial parks. Daegu Science Park (No. 10) had the lowest average risk level of 1.02 for the present and future because hazard is at the second and third grade in the present and future, respectively, and the vulnerability is very low (grade 1). The Gwangyang National Industrial Park (No. 2) and Jin-Hae National Industrial Park’s (No. 34) RiskLocation
showed the highest average level (2.40). On the other hand, Daegu Science Park (No. 10), Light Green Industrial Park (No. 19), and Chang-Hang National Industrial Park’s (No. 31) RiskLocation
showed very low average levels (1.00). When the RiskLocation
level of evaluation is high, the hazard and vulnerability grades are also high (No. 2, No. 34). However, if the level of RiskLocation
is normal or low, there are two reasons—the hazard grade is high but the vulnerability grade is low (Nos. 19, 35) or vice versa (Nos. 5, 13, 21). Hazard and vulnerability grades were all low (Nos. 10 and 31). The Figure 3
B shows the final grade determined by the multiplication of the hazard grade and vulnerability grade, and translated into three levels as indicated by the three colors in the 5-by-5 risk matrix. The results clearly indicate the range of RiskLocation
for each industrial park.
evaluation results were based on the degree of vulnerability to floods and the possibility of floods (hazard) occurring in industrial parks in which the target companies are located. In this study, the flood risk level of a national industrial park in the southern region was high (red circle, dangerous level) and most inland and eastern industrial parks were assessed at a safe level (green circle), as seen in Figure 4
, Figure 5
and Figure 6
. In other studies, the vulnerability of the southern region was high owing to high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity [57
]. The results of this study show that the industrial parks in the southern region, similar to previous studies, had high flood risk; however, the risk level decreased gradually according to climate change scenarios [58
]. Construction of industrial parks in South Korea began in the early 1960s. In the 1970s, the government began to develop heavy chemical industry sectors, such as steel, petrochemicals, and non-ferrous metals, in industrial parks [60
]. At that time, industrial parks were mainly located in metropolitan areas in the central and southern coasts of South Korea to ensure accessibility for the transportation of raw materials for importation and exportation. Therefore, most industrial parks built during the early industrialization phase were rated with vulnerability grade 5 (dangerous) (see first image in Figure 4
). Hazard grades were highest in the southern coast, where vulnerability is currently high, but is being graded lower over time (Figure 4
, Figure 5
and Figure 6
). As a result, the risk is classified as safe (green color, level 1) and normal (yellow color, level 2) at the baseline. In the 2030s, most areas except for the western and southern coasts are expected to change from normal to safe. In the 2050s, most of the southern inland areas were graded as safe, whereas the majority of the remaining areas were normal, suggesting a potential decreasing trend compared to the current level. The uncertainty of climate change scenarios and increasing variations in annual precipitation could be the main reasons for the reduction of hazard levels in the future.
To understand this trend, we compared annual precipitation deviation data in the 2030s and 2050s for the 42 industrial parks based on the five-day cumulative maximum rainfall in the hazard index. The cumulative maximum rainfall on the 5th day decreased on average in the future, but in the 2030s in the RCP 4.5 scenario, the average regional standard deviations of the 42 industrial complexes is 58.2, with the highest value of 125.1. Therefore, the difference was very large. For the same RCP 4.5 scenario in the 2050s, the average regional standard deviation was 95.9, with the highest value of 404.4 and minimum value of 0. The maximum five-day cumulative rainfall of the baseline was found to be the highest at 235 mm among the 42 industrial parks. However, in the RCP 4.5 scenario, the maximum value of 532 mm in the 2030s, and 1518.3 mm in the 2050s, gradually increased. Thus, the difference in annual precipitation increased greatly in one region but the average precipitation decreased.
3.2.2. What Risk Items of Companies Should the Government Support to Reduce the Country’s Overall Flood Risk
The final FRAC level, which includes the RiskLocation
, and RiskFlood
levels, can be used to support the government’s decision-making. The three risk items in Table 3
, derived from RiskCompany
, can be used to determine the types of support that should be provided to each company. Depending on the risk category or the average risk rating of the risk category, the companies that need federal support may be different.
Based on in-depth interviews with company stakeholders about the possible risks for companies, there are three risks caused by floods that have a great influence on the production activities of parks. Risk 1 is the flooding and destruction of production facilities; Risk 2 is the damage caused by increased humidity that degrades raw materials and final products; and Risk 3 is the interruption of power supply due to power station and substation damage, which leads to production system paralysis. Therefore, the government should support these risk items.
However, in the case of insufficient funds, risk items must be prioritized. After further comparison of the three chosen risk items, the one with the highest level should receive support. Risk 2 presented the highest average level among the four companies, whereas Risk 1 presented the highest FRAC level for TP. The average level of Risk 1 for the four companies was 1.50, Risk 2 was 1.75, and Risk 3 was 1.50 (Table 7
). In the case of Risk 1, TP was evaluated as having a risky level (level 3); however, the average rating of the four companies was 1.5. If the government decides to prioritize risk item funding to reduce the overall flood risk for all companies, it should focus on Risk 2. However, if the aim is to reduce the greatest risk of flooding among all companies, Risk 1 should be prioritized for funding. In the table below (Table 7
), ① indicates the risk level of the location of companies, and ② indicates the risk level of a company’s risk lists. RiskFlood
level is the result of multiplying the values of ① and ② using the 3-by-3 risk matrix.
To analyze the evaluation results of the three possible risk items of TP (the highest risk company), we investigated cases of the company’s flood damage, its production process, and flood prevention measures. TP is a coal-fired power plant that produces electricity. It has a steam power plant using bituminous coal and a combined cycle power plant using liquefied natural gas as raw material. The power plant is located on the coast because it requires a large amount of cooling water. On 15 August 2012, several sections of the power plant were flooded and damaged due to local heavy rainfall. The rainfall per hour was 68 mm for 3 h, and the cumulative rainfall was 218 mm. The heavy rains and high tide overlapped, and the flood damage occurred largely because the rainwater was not able to flow to the sea. As a result, the cutoff area of the power plant collapsed and the 345 kV underground power plant of the combined power plant was submerged. Several facilities in the power plants were flooded, including the sump pit, cable room, and 345 kV tunnel. Most of these facilities flooded because they were located in the basement. After TP was damaged, three sump pumps were purchased to prevent flooding, resulting in recovery costs of approximately 43,802 USD. The average level of RiskFlood in TP was 2.00, and RiskCompany’s Risk 1 was assessed as level 3, Risk 2 as 2, and Risk 3 as level 1. In other words, the Risk 1 item of flooding and collapse of production facilities was found to be the most dangerous. The risk level of Risk 1 for TP is a risky level that does not change in the present and future. Based on the results of the FRAC, enterprises need to invest in facilities to prepare for flooding and the destruction of production facilities due to floods. By improving the ability of the company to deal with floods, such as buying new drain pumps after flood damage, the level of Risk 1 is expected to decrease, and this adaptive measure will reduce the probability of Risk 1. In addition, a decrease in the hazard grade from the FRAC model and the company’s flood risk adaptation plan will result in lower risk levels in the future.
In order to analyze the evaluation results of the three possible risk items of EC, we investigated cases of flood damage, data related to the characteristics of the company, and measures by the company to reduce flood damage. EC produces camera modules and package substrates, which are parts of electronic devices. For both product lines, the manufacturing process should maintain a temperature of 22 ± 2 °C and humidity of 50 ± 5%. In order to maintain the proper temperature and humidity, EC manufactures products in a Clean Room equipped with advanced temperature, humidity, and particle control functions. It is a space necessary for precise work with products such as semiconductors, because these are shielded from pollution and the external environment [61
]. However, if rain is constantly falling, the number of equipment and operating rate can be changed to adjust the humidity of the Clean room. In addition, since EC uses ultrapure water for product manufacturing, defective products are possible when the water treatment process is defective. For this reason, EC is located in an industrial park near the Nakdong River where many electronic component manufacturers are located. However, because of the existence of well-maintained drainage facilities, the enterprises in this industrial complex are less likely experience flooding and are more likely to avoid damage to their production facilities. In the past, neighborhood businesses and roads were flooded for approximately 5 h because of a hurricane in September 2012. However, EC did not directly suffer from flood damage considering the overall climatic damage. This company was graded as low risk for Risk 1, as it was not severely damaged by flooding. Risk 2 and Risk 3 items were evaluated at the normal or safe levels in present and the future. However, not all of the production of EC is safe because of the sensitivity to humidity and high consumption of electricity. EC’s electricity consumption is over 70% higher than that of other companies; therefore, production can cease if flooding were to interrupt its power supply. The company has experienced a change in electric power supply due to actual typhoons, floods, and lightning, and some production lines have been shut down three to four times a year. However, because there is reserve power in EC, a power outage does not have a significant impact on the production process itself, resulting in only a partial interruption. Therefore, since EC is at a normal or safe level, it is not a priority to establish adaptation measures.
EPSM produces expanded polystyrene (EPS) foam and expanded polypropylene. We analyzed the production process and gathered cases of flood damage to product manufacturing and interpreted the results of RiskFlood. The production process of this company involves pasteurization, maturation, and plastic processing steps. pasteurization is a process that softens raw materials using water, air, and steam, and then expands them for processing. Maturation is a process in which raw materials are aged to penetrate various chemicals in the air when internal gas is released to into the environment as the pressure inside the material decreases while passing through the pasteurization process. In the plastic process step, raw materials go through pasteurization and maturation, then aged and dried again, and then put into a product-shaped frame and steamed to produce final product. EPS, in particular, is sensitive to temperature and humidity changes because high temperature and proper humidity must be maintained during the manufacturing process. During the pasteurization step, high temperatures must be maintained, while constant humidity (30–50%) at room temperature is required during maturation. Thus, when floods caused by heavy rainfall occur, the humidity may increase and temperature may decrease. To reduce the unintentional manufacturing of defective products, it is necessary to maintain a certain temperature and humidity. The RiskFlood level of Risk 1 was at the safe level, and the Risk 2 and Risk 3 levels were at the normal level, because there was no evidence of flood damage to the enterprise because of good drainage in the area where EPSM is located. There are no cases yet of flood damage, and flood risk mitigation measures are not necessary at the normal level. However, it is necessary to pay careful attention because the products are manufactured through processes that are sensitive to temperature and humidity.
In order to analyze the evaluation results of the three possible risk items of PP, we examined cases of flooding, data on the characteristics of the enterprise, and adaptation measures by the company to minimize flood damage. A pulp-making process from wood pulp raw materials and a paper sheet-making process are performed at the PP plant. PP uses domestic pine and some imported wood chips to make pulp and paper that is stored outdoors. Wood chips are transferred to a digester to separate lignin and cellulose, and then washed and bleached, which consumes a large amount of water. During this time, the temperature of the water is between 80 and 90 °C and 65,000 tons of water per day are consumed. Paper fibers are bleached, compressed, dehydrated, and then coated and cut to produce paper. In order to make pulp and paper, most of the raw materials are made from domestic pine wood as thinning enables the production of many woods domestically. In addition, the use of domestic pine can reduce the risks associated with importing raw materials affected by natural disasters such as floods. However, owing to the lack of raw materials, PP has to import wood chips. Raw materials are imported once every two to three weeks to prevent the possibility of a suspension in supply due to heavy rains and strong winds. If the weather deteriorates, the materials will be shipped again in a few days. The raw materials are supplied in large quantities domestically and internationally once or twice a week. The company stores the raw wood chips and paper and pulp products outside in a field without proper protective measures. Therefore, flooding can reduce the quality of raw materials and final products. Although PP has its own measures for preventing flood damage, it has no clear adaptation plan, and the raw materials and products are very sensitive to moisture. However, because of the high level of awareness and lack of damage from large floods, Risk 1 and Risk 3 were evaluated at safe levels. Some of the current and future Risk 2 items were rated at the normal level because the products and raw materials are sensitive to humidity. Also, because the company stores and produces large quantities of raw materials, there is likely to be some impact from floods. In the case of Risk 2 items, the damage will not increase greatly because the likelihood of hazard occurrence is lower in the future and the degree of vulnerability is low. Therefore, it was determined that the company does not need to adopt measures against flood damage.