Estimating the Contribution of Industry Structure Adjustment to the Carbon Intensity Target: A Case of Guangdong
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Methods and Data
2.1. GDP Forecasting
2.2. Industry Structure Prediction with the Markov Chain Model
2.3. Estimating CO2 Emissions
2.4. Forecasting CO2 Emissions
2.5. Evaluating the Contribution of the Carbon Intensity Target
2.6. Data
3. Results and Discussion
3.1. Prediction on GDP of Guangdong in 2015
3.2. Prediction on Industry Structure of Guangdong in 2015
3.3. Prediction on CO2 Emissions of Guangdong in 2015
3.4. Prediction on Carbon Intensity of Guangdong in 2015
3.5. Prediction on CO2 Emissions of Guangdong in 2015
4. Conclusions
- (i)
- Industry structure adjustment is an effective measure for driving the reduction of carbon intensity. For a given level of economic growth, the larger the industry structure adjustment, the larger the “reduction amplitude” of the carbon intensity. For a given industry structure adjustment, the higher the economic growth, the larger the “reduction amplitude” of the carbon intensity.
- (ii)
- Under the ideal scenario (i.e., “high-speed economic growth” and “substantial industry structure adjustment”), industry structure adjustment contributes most to the realization of the carbon intensity goal, with a contribution of 130.94%. Carbon intensity would be reduced by 25.53% in 2015 as compared to 2010. Under the conservative scenario (i.e., “low-speed economic growth” and “minor industry structure adjustment”), the contribution of industry structure adjustment to meeting the carbon intensity goal will reach 122.50%. At the same time, the carbon intensity in 2015 will decrease by 23.89% as compared to 2010.
- (iii)
- The reduction by 19.5% of the carbon intensity goal can be achieved under all the combined scenarios through industry structure adjustment. Thus, it can be concluded that the set target appears scientific and reasonable for Guangdong’s government to reach its carbon intensity goal by 2015.
- (iv)
- Although the obtained results show that the goal of reducing 19.5% of Guangdong’s carbon intensity can be achieved, there are some limitations and uncertainties. In this paper, we have not taken into account the adoption and use of novel low carbon policies, which will change over time. How to capture them is the focus of one of our next works.
Acknowledgments
Author Contributions
Conflicts of Interest
References
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High-Speed | Medium-Speed | Low-Speed | |
---|---|---|---|
Minor adjustment | 3.4061 | 3.4124 | 3.4188 |
Medium adjustment | 3.3708 | 3.3771 | 3.3834 |
Substantial adjustment | 3.3448 | 3.3510 | 3.3573 |
High-Speed | Medium-Speed | Low-Speed | |
---|---|---|---|
Minor adjustment | −24.17 (123.95) | −24.03 (123.22) | −23.89 (122.50) |
Medium adjustment | −24.95 (127.97) | −24.82 (127.26) | −24.68 (126.54) |
Substantial adjustment | −25.53 (130.94) | −25.39 (130.23) | −25.26 (129.51) |
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Wang, P.; Zhu, B. Estimating the Contribution of Industry Structure Adjustment to the Carbon Intensity Target: A Case of Guangdong. Sustainability 2016, 8, 355. https://doi.org/10.3390/su8040355
Wang P, Zhu B. Estimating the Contribution of Industry Structure Adjustment to the Carbon Intensity Target: A Case of Guangdong. Sustainability. 2016; 8(4):355. https://doi.org/10.3390/su8040355
Chicago/Turabian StyleWang, Ping, and Bangzhu Zhu. 2016. "Estimating the Contribution of Industry Structure Adjustment to the Carbon Intensity Target: A Case of Guangdong" Sustainability 8, no. 4: 355. https://doi.org/10.3390/su8040355