The Silver-Hair Economy in the New Era: Political Economy Perspectives on Its Dilemmas and Solutions

Abstract

The rapid rise of the silver economy in the new era has become a new driving force for socio-economic development. From the perspective of Marxist political economy theory, this paper analyzes the intrinsic logic of the silver economy’s development through three dimensions: surplus value, labor market, and capital. The study finds that the silver economy in the new era faces challenges such as insufficient supply of high-quality elderly care services, simultaneous shortages in both total talent quantity and structural imbalances, and contradictions between capital’s profit-seeking nature and social welfare. By introducing the multiple streams model, the paper elucidates the coupling process of these three streams and the timing of policy window openings. It proposes targeted strategies, including strengthening technological innovation, deepening labor market reforms, and optimizing capital allocation, to promote the robust development of China’s silver economy and inject strong momentum into sustainable and high-quality economic growth.

1. Introduction

With the global aging population, the silver economy has emerged as a significant phenomenon in social development. The concept originated in Japan during the 1970s [1], as the country gradually entered a highly aged society and recognized the necessity of providing specialized services and products for the elderly population. In 2015, the European Commission defined it as “all economic activities driven by public and consumer expenditures related to the population aged over 50” [2], marking the official recognition and affirmation of the silver economy as a formal economic domain worldwide, highlighting its growing importance. China is no exception—by the end of 2023, the proportion of the population aged 60 and above reached 21.1% [3], signifying the country’s entry into a moderately aged society. Faced with this increasingly large aging demographic, how to efficiently and effectively address the challenges of developing the silver economy in the new era has become an urgent practical issue.

China’s rapidly changing demographic structure has placed tremendous pressure on the existing social security system. It is currently facing issues such as insufficient supply of high-quality elderly care services, severe shortages of professional caregivers in the nursing industry, and structural mismatches between market supply and the diverse needs of the elderly. These problems not only pertain to demographic and social dimensions but also reflect, at a deeper level, the economic dynamics of how capital, labor, and value creation interact against the backdrop of an aging society.

Existing studies predominantly dissect the silver economy from sociological and managerial perspectives, often overlooking its inherent economic logic and failing to uncover the profound contradictions between capital’s profit-seeking motives and elderly welfare. While neoclassical economics attempts to analyze this through market equilibrium models, its oversimplification of the interaction between the Chinese government and the market renders it incapable of explaining institutional market failures. Grounded in the realities of China’s socialist market economy, Marxist political economy, through its theories of surplus value and production relations, can deeply analyze the contradictory dynamics between capital accumulation, labor value, and elderly needs, thereby providing an analytical framework with both theoretical depth and practical relevance to address issues such as service supply imbalances and delayed policy responses.

Under this problem-oriented guidance, this study aims to interpret the inherent logic of the silver economy through the framework of Marxist political economy, analyzing how surplus value production and capital allocation drive market outcomes. Using China’s aging population as a case study, it identifies the structural dilemmas arising from conflicts between capital’s profit-seeking motives and social welfare. Leveraging the multiple streams model, the research proposes theoretically grounded policy interventions to reconcile economic efficiency with equitable elderly care, thereby addressing gaps in both the academic literature and practical policymaking.

The structure of the remaining sections of this paper is arranged as follows: Section 2 conducts a literature review. Section 3 elaborates on the methodology of the article. Section 4 presents the characteristics of China’s silver economy in the new era, explains its internal logic, and analyzes the challenges and solutions. Section 5 proposes recommendations for future development. The discussion and conclusions are presented in Section 6 and Section 7, respectively.

2. Literature Review

2.1. Sociological Perspective

From a sociological perspective, research on the silver economy encompasses multiple dimensions, including elderly care concepts, senior care services, geriatric education, social policies, and elderly care service systems. Li et al. [4] constructed a “subject-content-policy” framework, proposing that the silver economy must bridge the social cycle chain from “pre-retirement consumption to elderly services,” thereby providing a theoretical foundation for its holistic development. Lu Jiehua [5] analyzed the shift in younger generations’ elderly care concepts from “raising children for old-age support” to “self-planning,” highlighting how weakened intergenerational support exacerbates the risk of elderly loneliness and emphasizing the impact of changing care concepts on the aging population. Feng Wenmeng [6], through empirical community practices, found that age-friendly communities and integrated medical-care models can enhance the efficacy of elderly care services by rebuilding social trust, offering practical evidence for optimizing such services. Sun et al. [7] revealed that senior sports tourism is constrained by urban–rural disparities and the digital divide, suggesting the use of local cultural resources to bridge social stratification and promote its development. Jiang Ying [8] critiqued geriatric education for falling into “structural isolation,” advocating its integration into the silver economy chain to achieve social cohesion in “health-care-learning-tourism,” thus providing insights for the synergistic development of geriatric education and the silver economy. Wu et al. [9] argued that the silver economy and geriatric education must reconcile the cultural conflict between public welfare and profit-seeking through “social well-being,” offering theoretical support for their coordinated relationship. Mu Guangzong [10] called for developing “free and comfortable institutional home-based elderly care” to meet seniors’ social value demands for spiritual dignity, pointing the way for innovative care models. Gao Ying [11] emphasized that regional disparities in aging necessitate “stratified social policies” to avoid urban–rural welfare gaps, providing references for policy formulation. Li Jia [12] proposed “cognitive innovation first,” critiquing society’s negative labeling of aging as a barrier to the silver economy and underscoring the influence of social cognition on its growth. Zhang Ge [13] deconstructed the “spatiotemporal coupling” between elderly care service systems and the silver economy, advocating for a “four-in-one” elderly care community to theoretically support system refinement.

2.2. Management Perspective

From a management perspective, research on the silver economy primarily focuses on policy design, industry classification and policy customization, technological innovation and collaboration, talent cultivation, and market development. Meng et al. [14] proposed a “comprehensive coordinated fiscal and taxation system” using transfer payments to address regional imbalances in the silver economy. Zhu et al. [15] outlined a KPI assessment mechanism for the silver economy in the “15th Five-Year Plan”, linking social benefits with economic benefits to provide quantifiable metrics for policy implementation and evaluation. Zhao Ning [16] distilled the three-stage evolutionary logic of U.S. silver economy policies—”legislative safeguards—market activation—social coordination”—offering international experience for China’s policy formulation. Huang et al. [17] pioneered a tripartite classification of the silver industry, dividing it into foundational, extended, and strategic categories, advocating for tailored industrial policies to provide a basis for targeted support. Li Zhihong [18] called for the establishment of a national silver economy industry catalog and the strengthening of aging-adaptation standards certification, providing direction for standardized industry development. Zhang Yingxi [19] constructed a “government regulation—market efficiency—technological innovation” triangular model to drive the supply–demand cycle of the silver economy, emphasizing the importance of technological innovation in industrial development. Ma Yue [20] designed a top-level framework for the coordinated development of the “digital economy—silver economy”, offering strategic guidance for their integration. Lv et al. [21] formulated a three-tier empowerment roadmap for digital aging-adaptation—”technology layer—industry layer—service layer”—providing a concrete pathway for applying digital technologies in the silver economy. Du et al. [22] suggested that new quality productive forces require supporting “scientific and technological system reforms” to unleash innovation dividends, offering recommendations for institutional safeguards in technological innovation. Zhu et al. [23] proposed that commercial banks should develop scenario-based products such as “travel-based elderly care finance” and “community elderly care trusts”, offering directions for innovation in elderly care financial products. Peng et al. [24] utilized profiles of the elderly population to guide enterprises in precisely tapping into incremental markets, providing user-oriented strategies for expanding the silver economy’s market reach.

2.3. Perspective of Neoclassical Economics

From the perspective of neoclassical economics, research on the silver economy primarily focuses on consumption markets, policy tools, the industrial scale, and financial support, aiming to promote its development through market mechanisms and policy guidance. Qiu Wenwen [25] validated the significant role of the digital economy in boosting elderly consumption based on CHARLS data, particularly in eastern urban areas. Gao Yan [26] empirically found that the platform economy widened the urban–rural gap in elderly consumption, with the effect in eastern regions being 3.2 times that of the west. Xu et al. [27] earlier demonstrated that the marginal propensity to consume for elderly education, tourism, and real estate reached 0.68, indicating substantial potential in the elderly consumption market. Shu et al. [28] summarized market stimulation measures such as Japan’s “differential pricing for silver tourism” and Australia’s “healthcare consumption vouchers”, providing international references for expanding consumption markets. Li et al. [29] compared tax systems in Japan and Germany, proposing an expansion of value-added tax exemptions for elderly care services to alleviate corporate burdens and stimulate industrial growth. Chen et al. [30] advocated for “demand-side prioritization”, using consumption upgrades to drive supply-side reforms and emphasizing demand-side leadership in industrial development. Lin Bao [31] defined the silver economy as a “whole-population, whole-life-cycle” consumption market, calling for the removal of age barriers to expand consumer groups. Regarding the industrial scale and projections, Yuan et al. [32] estimated the silver economy’s scale at 7 trillion CNY (6% of GDP), forecasting it would exceed 30 trillion CNY by 2035, providing quantitative evidence of its market potential. Cai Fang [33] proposed the silver economy as a market-based solution to fill the “demand gap” caused by negative population growth, highlighting its macroeconomic significance. Li Xiaotian [34] advocated for “full-cycle financial support for industrial chains” in elderly care finance and proposed constructing risk-hedging funds, offering innovative ideas for financial safeguards in the silver economy. Wu et al. [35] estimated a financial demand gap exceeding 100 trillion CNY in elderly care, urging the relaxation of insurance fund investment restrictions to meet market needs. Gao et al. [36] designed a combined investment model of “elderly real estate REITs + long-term care insurance securitization” for insurance funds, providing insights into financial innovation for elderly care. Li Lu [37] suggested activating residents’ precautionary savings through elderly savings bonds, offering a new approach to fund-raising for elderly care finance. Du et al. [38] summarized Germany’s market-based experience with “reverse mortgage loans,” providing references for innovative financial products in China’s elderly care sector.

2.4. Marxist Perspective

From a Marxist perspective, research on the silver economy focuses on the dialectical relationship between capital logic, labor–capital contradictions, surplus value, and social welfare, exploring its position within the modern industrial system and its interaction with changes in production relations. Wang et al. [39] incorporate the silver economy into the modern industrial system, emphasizing its mutual construction with the transformation of production relations. They argue that the development of the silver economy is not only a response to population aging but also a crucial force driving industrial upgrading and economic restructuring. Huang et al. [40] propose that new quality productive forces must resolve contradictions in production relations such as the “capital dilemma” and “supply-demand imbalance,” stressing the need to balance capital accumulation and social welfare in the development of the silver economy. Li et al. [41] point out that empowering new quality productive forces requires breaking barriers to capital accumulation like “technological barriers” and “market disorder,” providing theoretical support for the application of new quality productive forces in the silver economy. Xu et al. [42] analyze structural contradictions such as slowing pension growth and the impact of artificial intelligence on the labor market, highlighting the challenges these pose to the welfare security of the elderly population. Cao et al. [43] reveal that the intersection of aging and digitalization leads to “unequal distribution of technological dividends”, necessitating government intervention to correct market failures. They emphasize the government’s critical role in mediating labor–capital conflicts and ensuring social equity. Yang et al. [44], based on Marx’s population theory, demonstrate that improving population quality can drive the upgrading of consumption, providing a theoretical basis for consumption upgrading in the silver economy. Chen et al. [45] critique the “profit-driven and policy arbitrage” that hinder the development of the silver economy, arguing that development models prioritizing economic gains over social value are unsustainable. Li et al. [46] propose that “common prosperity and sharing are the fundamental goals of the silver economy”, aligning with the essence of socialism. They emphasize that the development of the silver economy should aim for the common prosperity of all people rather than mere capital accumulation.

Summary: Although the existing literature has provided numerous valuable insights in the field of silver economy research, there remains a critical gap: the lack of in-depth analysis on the interaction between capital, labor, and surplus value, as well as how this dynamic triggers dilemmas within the silver economy. This study constructs a novel analytical framework by integrating the perspective of Marxist political economy with China’s unique policy context, thereby revealing the tension between profit motives and social welfare in the silver economy.

3. Methodology

3.1. Theoretical Framework: Marxist Political Economy

This study takes Marxist political economy as its core theoretical foundation, deconstructing the inherent contradictions of the silver economy from the perspective of production relations and economic operating laws. The specific analytical framework is as follows:

Application of the Theory of Surplus Value: The silver economy is regarded as a special field of capital accumulation, focusing on the dynamic process of living labor creating value and capital appropriating surplus value. By analyzing the investment logic of capital in elderly care services and senior product markets, the study reveals the essence of compressed variable capital behind standardized services, explaining the economic roots of service homogenization and quality shortages.

Capital Accumulation and Labor Market Analysis: Based on Marx’s assertion regarding the tendency of capital expansion, the study examines the trend of capital concentration in high-profit sectors within the silver economy and the resulting insufficiency in inclusive service provision. Simultaneously, using the theory of labor as a commodity, it analyzes phenomena such as low wages and high turnover among care workers, elucidating the mechanisms by which capital undervalues labor.

Dialectical Analysis of Production Relations and Superstructure: The silver economy is situated within the institutional context of the “socialist market economy,” exploring the interaction between state capital and private capital. Emphasis is placed on analyzing the guiding role of policy regulation in capital allocation and the reactive influence of adjustments in production relations on the superstructure.

The selection of Marxist political economy for its theoretical applicability is rooted in its revelation of the essence of production relations and the institutional logic of the socialist market economy with Chinese characteristics.

3.2. Analytical Framework: The Multiple Streams Theory

Introducing John Wells Kingdon’s Multiple Streams Theory, this study supplements the analysis from a policy process perspective, primarily elucidating the dilemmas and solutions of the silver economy. The specific components include the following:

Problem Stream: By analyzing aging-related data and market failure phenomena, the core issues and urgency of silver economy development are defined. Special attention is paid to the political economy attributes of problem definition, such as the lack of public services due to capital’s profit-seeking behavior.

Policy Stream: This section examines the formation logic of policy proposals related to the silver economy, including representative proposals and academic recommendations. It analyzes how different policy proposals reflect the value conflicts between capital and labor, efficiency, and fairness.

Political Stream: The influence of the political context on silver economy policies is investigated, encompassing national strategies, public opinion, and societal sentiment.

Policy Window Integration Analysis: This section entails identifying the critical junctures where three streams converge, analyzing how structural contradictions from the perspective of Marxist political economy are transformed into institutional adjustments through policy windows, and forming a closed-loop analysis of “economic laws—policy responses—political interventions.”

The theoretical suitability of selecting the multiple streams framework stems from its dynamic capture of the “society-policy-politics” interaction mechanism and its inherent alignment with China’s decision-making system.

3.3. Theoretical Model Construction: Political Economy—Multiple Streams Intersection Model

This study proposes the Political Economy—Multiple Streams Intersection Model for the silver economy, which is an explanatory theoretical model distinct from the predictive models of empirical research. Its functions include (1) providing conceptual tools for analyzing contradictions in the silver economy and (2) revealing the theoretical logic of the policy process.

The model is grounded in Marxist theory as its deep-level logic and employs the multiple streams model as a policy analysis tool. On the Marxist dimension, the underlying analytical logic consists of surplus value production, labor market differentiation, and capital accumulation expansion. On the multiple streams dimension, the aging data in the problem stream, proposal reserves in the policy stream, and national strategies in the political stream form the reality-driven factors for policy responses (Figure 1).

The core hypothesis of the model is that contradictions in capital accumulation within the silver economy are transformed into policy demands through the problem stream (Marxist dimension), and when the three streams couple, a policy window opens to regulate these contradictions (multiple streams dimension). This model breaks through the limitations of singular theories and provides an integrative analytical framework for understanding the development of the silver economy under a socialist market economy.

3.4. Research Method: Qualitative Research

This study focuses on structural contradictions among capital, labor, and welfare in the silver economy. These issues involve dynamic interactions in policy processes and the deep-seated logic of social relations, which cannot be fully explained through quantitative data alone. Qualitative research methods can more deeply capture the implicit implications of policy texts and practical logic in case studies. Theoretically, Marxist political economy’s analysis of production relations and capital logic, combined with multi-source flow theory’s interpretation of dynamic policy interactions, form the methodological foundation of this research. Both approaches emphasize deep interpretations of structural contradictions and contextualized interactions rather than correlation analyses of quantitative variables, aligning perfectly with the complex relationship research needs involving capital, labor, and social welfare in the silver economy. In terms of data support, the study primarily relies on three types of qualitative materials: first, statistical data—by screening official data to summarize characteristics and trends, laying the groundwork for subsequent analysis; second, policy texts—through logical organization of textual content, extracting implicit intentions regarding capital regulation and social welfare balance in policy orientations; and third, typical case studies—through contextualized analysis of case details, concretizing the real-world contradiction between capital’s profit-seeking and labor value realization. This qualitative research approach aims to reveal the essence of structural contradictions in silver economy development through in-depth textual and case analysis, providing qualitative argumentation support for integrating theoretical frameworks with Chinese practices.

4. Analysis: Characteristics, Internal Logic, and Challenges

4.1. Features of China’s Silver Economy

In 2024, the Chinese government issued the Opinions on Developing the Silver Economy to Enhance the Well-being of the Elderly, which explicitly defines the silver economy at the outset as the sum of a series of economic activities aimed at providing products or services to the elderly and preparing for the aging stage. It covers a wide range of areas and features a long industrial chain, diverse business models, and enormous potential [47]. This indicates that the silver economy is a comprehensive economic activity category, encompassing not only the provision of products and services to the elderly but also related economic activities in preparation for the aging stage. However, since entering the new era, China’s demographic structure has undergone profound changes, with aging phenomena presenting a series of new trends and characteristics. Against this backdrop, the silver economy has demonstrated more distinct directional significance. It represents both a profound economic and social challenge and harbors tremendous potential for economic growth and development opportunities. Its main characteristics include the following aspects.

4.1.1. The Pace of Population Aging Has Accelerated Markedly

According to authoritative data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s population aged 65 and above has shown a significant growth trend over the past two decades, increasing from 98 million in 2004 to 217 million in 2023. The proportion of this demographic in the total population has also risen from 7.58% to 15.40% (Figure 2) [48]. By international standards, China has officially entered the stage of moderate aging. Compared with developed countries, which typically take more than 45 years to complete this transition, China achieved this important shift in just 20 years. Moreover, in the foreseeable future, China’s aging process is expected to continue growing at a high speed, making it one of the fastest-aging countries in the world.

4.1.2. The Elderly Population Has a Large Base, Presenting Vast Market Prospects

According to the data from the 2020 Seventh National Population Census, the population aged 60 and above in China has reached 264,018,766, accounting for 18.70% of the total population; the elderly population aged 65 and above is as high as 190,635,280, representing 13.50% (

Table 1. Age Composition of the National Population (unit: Person, Percent).

Age	Population	Proportion
Total	1,411,778,724	100.00
0–14	253,383,938	17.95
15–59	894,376,020	63.35
60 and over	264,018,766	18.70
Of which: 65 and over	190,635,280	13.50

) [49]. These figures indicate that China is not only a country experiencing rapid aging but also the nation with the largest elderly population in the world, and the potential aging population is also substantial. It is projected that by 2050, the number of elderly people aged 60 and above in China may rise to one-third of the total population. This vast elderly population base suggests enormous market potential. With the sustained growth of China’s economy and the continuous improvement in people’s living standards, the consumption demands of the elderly in areas such as health care, leisure and entertainment, education and training, and cultural activities are increasingly robust, presenting significant market opportunities.

4.1.3. Significant Structural Disparities and Diverse Consumption Demands

China’s elderly population exhibits notable structural differences between urban and rural areas, as well as across provinces. Data reveal that nationally, the proportions of rural residents aged 60 and above and 65 and above are 23.81% and 17.72%, respectively, which are 7.99 and 6.61 percentage points higher than those in urban areas. Due to early economic development and population mobility, coastal regions in the East exhibit a higher degree of aging (

Table 2. The age composition of the population in various regions of China as per the seventh national census (unit: Percent).

Province	Proportion		Province	Proportion
	Over 60 Years Old	Of Which: 65 Years Old and Over		Over 60 Years Old	Of Which: 65 Years Old and Over
Nationwide	18.70	13.50	Henan	18.08	13.49
Beijing	19.63	13.30	Hubei	20.42	14.59
Tianjin	21.66	14.75	Hunan	19.88	14.81
Hebei	19.85	13.92	Guangdong	12.35	8.58
Shanxi	18.92	12.90	Guangxi	16.69	12.20
Inner Mongolia	19.78	13.05	Hainan	14.65	10.43
Liaoning	25.72	17.42	Chongqing	21.87	17.08
Jilin	23.06	15.61	Sichuan	21.71	16.93
Heilongjiang	23.22	15.61	Guizhou	15.38	11.56
Shanghai	23.38	16.28	Yunnan	14.91	10.75
Jiangsu	21.84	16.20	Xizang	8.52	5.67
Zhejiang	18.70	13.27	Shanxi	19.20	13.32
Anhui	18.79	15.01	Gansu	17.03	12.58
Fujian	15.98	11.10	Qinghai	12.14	8.68
Jiangxi	16.87	11.89	Ningxia	13.52	9.62
Shandong	20.90	15.13	Xinjiang	11.28	7.76

) [49]. Meanwhile, the central and western regions are experiencing accelerated aging due to outward migration of the labor force.

With increasing population mobility, the migration of elderly individuals also influences consumption patterns, as their pursuit of quality of life and willingness to invest have significantly strengthened. While traditional needs such as daily necessities (food, clothing, housing, transportation) and basic medical services remain priorities, the elderly population’s demand for elderly care services is becoming increasingly diverse and personalized. Additionally, their acceptance of financial products and high-tech goods continues to rise steadily [50].

4.1.4. The Digital Needs of the Elderly Population Are on the Rise

With the deepening advancement of the digital era, the demand for digital applications among the elderly population has become increasingly prominent. Against the backdrop of continuous technological evolution and widespread adoption, this demographic has demonstrated a proactive attitude toward enhancing digital skills, actively embracing the digital wave to better adapt to and navigate the evolving digital landscape.

Data reveal that in December 2010, the online population among individuals aged 50–59 and those aged 60 and above stood at merely 17.83 million and 8.69 million, respectively, accounting for only 11.1% and 4.9% of their respective age groups [51]. By December 2022, the online population in the 50–59 age group in China had surged to 176 million, representing 73.5% of this demographic and 16.5% of all internet users. Meanwhile, the online population aged 60 and above reached 153 million, constituting 54.5% of the elderly population and 14.3% of total internet users [52].

According to a QuestMobile report [53], as of September 2023, the user base of China’s elderly population had climbed to 325 million, marking a year-on-year growth of 7.6%. Additionally, their share of the total Internet population rose to 26.5%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points compared to the previous year. In terms of digital usage habits, the average screen time per capita for this group continued to rise, reaching 127.2 h—a 5.2% increase year-on-year.

4.2. Internal Dynamics: Capital, Labor, and Surplus Value

In the preface to Capital, Marx pointed out the following: “What I have to examine in this work is the capitalist mode of production, and the relations of production and exchange corresponding to it.” [54]. This established the core object of political economy research—social relations of production. Marx further revealed that capital is “not a thing, but a social relation between persons which is mediated through things” [55], its essence being the relations of production in a specific historical stage. The production and appropriation of surplus value constitute the absolute law of the capitalist mode of production, and the core of this process lies in labor power becoming a commodity and its transaction and utilization in the labor market. As Engels emphasized, the core object of economic study is the relationship between people [56]. Therefore, analyzing the development of the silver economy must situate it within the framework of capital’s pursuit of surplus value, the dynamic evolution of the labor market, and the unfolding logic of capital itself. These three elements intertwine and interact, collectively forming the internal logic of silver economic development (Figure 3).

4.2.1. The Expansion of Surplus Value Realization and the New Domain of Living Labor

The core of capitalist logic lies in the relentless pursuit of surplus value maximization [57]. In the silver economy, this logic first manifests as capital’s exploration of new market spaces and avenues for surplus value realization. Although a significant portion of the elderly population may withdraw from direct material production (i.e., the “living labor” domain that directly produces surplus value), Marx, in Volumes II and III of Capital, provides a profound analysis of the reproduction and circulation of total social capital, emphasizing the critical role of the consumption sphere in value realization. The vast consumption demands of the elderly—encompassing basic survival, healthcare, spiritual and cultural needs, social participation, and more—constitute a potentially enormous emerging market, the “silver market.” Capital keenly seizes this trend by investing in aging-appropriate product development (e.g., assistive devices, smart elderly care equipment), service provision (e.g., elderly care, health management, senior tourism, cultural education), and related infrastructure construction, with the fundamental aim of realizing the surplus value embedded in these goods and services. Research by Peng Xizhe and Chen Qian [24] also confirms the driving force of the elderly population, particularly the “preparation-for-old-age group” and the “young-old,” with their growing consumption capacity and diversified demands on market formation.

At the same time, the silver economy itself has given rise to new fields of “living labor.” Marx emphasized that “living labor” is the sole source of value creation. In the silver economy, a large number of workers directly serving the elderly, such as elderly care workers, rehabilitation therapists, geriatric social workers, and practitioners in elderly education, engage in concrete labor (caregiving, therapy, education, companionship, etc.). Although the forms of this labor are unique, they similarly create use-value and crystallize into value. Capital invested in the silver industry purchases these labor-power commodities precisely to obtain the portion of value created by these workers that exceeds the value of their labor-power surplus value. Additionally, the “secondary development” of elderly human resources (such as rehiring, consultancy roles, and the organization of volunteer services) may not fully adhere to standard employment relationships, but under specific conditions, it can also be incorporated into the chain of capital accumulation, partially participating in the process of value creation.

Therefore, as an emerging market, the development of the silver economy inherently aligns with the dual logic of capital seeking to expand the space for surplus value realization and identifying new domains for the investment of living labor. The aging demographic trend provides an objective condition for capital to overcome its inherent market limitations and pursue new accumulation opportunities.

4.2.2. Restructuring of the Labor Market and Adjustment of Labor–Capital Relations

Marx profoundly pointed out that capital accumulation and technological advancement inevitably lead to the continuous restructuring of the labor market [58]. In pursuit of surplus value and to cope with competition, capital constantly innovates production technologies and organizational methods, which directly impacts existing employment structures and the balance of power between labor and capital.

(1)

Supply Shock and Structural Contradictions: The declining proportion of the working-age population constitutes a long-term pressure on the labor supply side. At the same time, the rise of the silver economy, particularly in specialized fields such as elderly care, health services, and adaptive design of senior products, has led to a sharp increase in demand for labor with specific skills and knowledge. This coexistence of shrinking supply and expanding new demand exacerbates structural contradictions in the labor market, drives changes in wage levels in related sectors, and profoundly affects the distribution pattern of surplus value;

(2)

Diversification and Flexibility of Employment Forms: To adapt to the market characteristics of the silver economy and reduce costs, capital tends to promote diversification and flexibility in employment forms. This is reflected in the employment of the elderly population itself, manifesting in the prevalence of part-time work, flexible schedules, remote work, consulting roles, and similar arrangements. While such flexibility may provide participation opportunities for some elderly workers (especially those who are younger and highly skilled), it may also come with risks such as reduced job stability and insufficient social security, reflecting capital’s potential erosion of labor rights when adjusting labor relations to adapt to new markets;

(3)

Intergenerational Divergence and Market Stratification: Research by Peng Xizhe and Chen Qian [24] reveals significant heterogeneity within the elderly population. There are substantial differences in labor market participation and consumption behavior among elderly individuals of different age groups, educational backgrounds, and economic statuses. For example, the “pre-retirement group” (aged 50 to retirement) may remain a primary labor force or high-consumption group; the “young-old” (aged 60–69) focus on basic living services and exhibit strong market conversion potential, while the “middle-old and oldest-old” (aged 70 and above) are primarily core demanders of healthcare services (

Table 3. Consumption characteristics of the elderly population at different stages.

Age Classification	Mature Age	Aging	Advanced Age
	Aged 50–60, Newly Retired with Vitality and Interest-Driven Consumption	Aged 60–70, Health Decline, Maintaining Health Consumption	Over 70, High Incidence of Diseases, Pathological Maintenance Expenses
Core Demands	Cultural and entertainment	living services	Health care
Consumption	Apparel, footwear, headwear, and spiritual-cultural consumption such as tourism and residential travel	Supermarkets and convenience stores, e-commerce platforms, daily consumer goods such as senior milk powder, and nutritional and health supplements	Medicines, health products, home care services, senior care facilities

) [50]. This intergenerational divergence leads to a stratified structure within the silver economy’s labor and consumer markets, prompting capital to adopt differentiated investment and labor organization strategies accordingly.

Therefore, the development process of the silver economy is inevitably accompanied by profound adjustments in the labor market in terms of total volume, structure, form, and participant characteristics, reflecting the reshaping of the labor process by capital logic to adapt to changes in population structure and market demand.

4.2.3. The Unfolding, Contradictions, and Social Regulation of Capital Logic

From an ontological perspective, capital is value that generates surplus value, with its essence lying in motion (G-W-G’). Its fundamental attribute is its capacity for self-expansion [59]. Fan Wenxiang [60] also notes that capital possesses both productive and expansive qualities. The silver economy attracts capital investment precisely because capital recognizes its inherent potential for value appreciation. Capital employs various strategies to develop this sector: (1) Market Cultivation and Perception Shaping. Capital not only meets existing demands but actively cultivates and reshapes elderly consumption patterns through marketing, education, and other means, unlocking latent consumption capacity and expanding market scale. (2) Deep Integration of Technology and Capital. Capital vigorously drives the convergence of digital technologies (wearable devices, telemedicine, big data, AI) with the silver economy, giving rise to new business models like “smart elderly care.” This serves both as a means to enhance service efficiency and reduce costs, as well as a pathway to create new demands and investment opportunities. Fuchs’ analytical framework on digital labor helps elucidate the capital accumulation logic behind technological empowerment. (3) Policy Interaction and Risk Mitigation. Capital actively seeks to influence policy environments, securing support such as tax incentives, subsidies, and public–private partnerships (PPP) to lower entry barriers and operational risks. Simultaneously, policy fluctuations, demand uncertainties, and the ethical sensitivities of care services constitute significant risks for silver economy investments.

However, the operation of capital in the silver economy also reveals profound contradictions and social demands. On one hand, elderly care services and basic healthcare possess strong quasi-public good attributes and social welfare characteristics, directly impacting fundamental livelihood security. There exists a tension between the profit-driven nature of capital and the objectives of social welfare—what James O’Connor identified as potential sources of “fiscal crisis of the capitalist state” and “legitimacy crisis.” [61]. On the other hand, capital must also assume certain social responsibilities to maintain its social license to operate and ensure long-term stability. Through policy guidance (such as the “Healthy China” [62] and “Digital China” [63] strategies), market regulation, standard-setting, and public investment, the government seeks to reconcile these contradictions, steering capital to align profit pursuits with serving the national strategic goal of actively addressing population aging.

Therefore, the development of the silver economy is a process in which the logic of capital unfolds under new socio-demographic conditions, replete with complexities such as opportunities for value appreciation, impetus for technological innovation, policy negotiations, social contradictions, and demands for accountability. The organization and cultivation of capital must seek equilibrium amidst this array of tensions.

4.3. Challenges and Solution: An Analysis Based on the Multiple Streams Model

4.3.1. Problem Stream

The problem stream serves as the logical starting point for researching and formulating public policies. According to the multiple streams theory, the sources of problems primarily depend on indicator changes, focusing events, and information feedback. Decision-makers utilize these channels to identify and grasp actual conditions, thereby advancing the policy agenda.

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Indicator changes: Imbalance between supply and demand

China’s silver economy market is still in its infancy, with main products and services concentrated in the two traditional fields of healthcare and elderly care. The market response appears insufficiently agile in addressing the growing personalized demands of the elderly population, whether in terms of product variety or service quality, failing to fully keep pace with the rapid growth in senior citizens’ needs. Specifically, capital’s inherent pursuit of surplus value may not entirely align with the elderly’s demand for high-quality life services, manifesting in three key aspects:

Severe homogenization of products and services: The variety of products and services targeting the elderly in the market is not only relatively limited but also functionally monotonous and lacking in innovation. Products for the elderly focus either solely on health and wellness or on electronic monitoring, such as smart wristbands and monitoring devices. Most products have low technological content, low entry barriers, and largely similar functionalities [64]. This creates a significant gap with the elderly’s growing demand for personalization and diversity, severely restricting the depth and breadth of the silver economy’s development. According to surveys, out of over 60,000 senior-oriented products globally, only around 2000 are available in the Chinese market, whereas Japan offers more than 40,000 [65]. This stark contrast highlights the urgent need for development in China’s elderly product and service sector.

Uneven service quality: The silver-haired consumer market has yet to establish unified service standards and market regulations, resulting in relatively slow progress in product standardization and service normalization. Instances of deception, concealment, and fraud that infringe upon the rights of the elderly occur from time to time, severely violating their legitimate interests. In 2022, China’s public security authorities launched a special campaign to combat and rectify pension-related fraud. By the end of December, over 39,000 cases had been solved, more than 4730 criminal gangs dismantled, and over 30 billion CNY in illicit gains recovered [66]. The Annual Report on the Status of Consumer Rights Protection in China (2021) [67] pointed out that the infringement against the elderly takes diverse and complex forms. Consumer complaints from the elderly mainly focus on areas such as health product purchases, collectible investments, financial management, wellness prepaid cards, TV shopping, and online shopping. The primary issues manifest as

• Using small favors and playing the emotional card, they mislead elderly consumers into overspending through false advertising and price deception, even emptying their wallets;
• Under the guise of so-called experts, they organize health lectures to brainwash and push sales, extracting personal information or defrauding money and property;
• Exploiting the elderly’s poor discernment and lack of financial and technological knowledge, they induce them to purchase insurance, wealth management, and other financial products;
• TV shopping services suffer from poor after-sales support and difficulty in returning goods.

Outdated perceptions toward the elderly population: Traditional views hold that the elderly have limited spending power and prefer low-priced products and services. This stereotype leads businesses to predominantly offer cost-effective but inconsistent-quality products when catering to this demographic, often lacking the necessary patience and attentiveness in service. However, with rising living standards, improved quality of life, and evolving consumption attitudes, many younger seniors and well-off older seniors now exhibit consumption demands increasingly aligned with younger generations. They no longer prioritize affordability alone but place greater emphasis on product quality, practicality, and experience. Taking smartphones as an example, surveys indicate that over half of seniors aged 65–69 use smartphones, while 31.2% of those aged 70–79 and even 1.3% of centenarians and above still utilize smart devices [68].

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Key Event: Labor Market Shortage

Persistent Contraction on the Supply Side: According to the Fifth Sampling Survey on the Living Conditions of China’s Urban and Rural Elderly, there are currently approximately 35 million disabled elderly individuals in China, accounting for 11.6% of the total elderly population. Faced with an increasingly large elderly population, China faces a shortage of 5.5 million elderly care workers [69]. However, due to considerations such as wage levels, professional identity, and working conditions, young people exhibit low willingness to choose careers in the elderly care service industry, resulting in both a total shortage of elderly care service personnel and structural contradictions. The 2024 Occupational Status Survey Report on Elderly Care Workers reveals that in terms of workload, the majority of elderly care workers (44.39%) work 9 to 12 h per day. Regarding compensation, 36.49% of elderly care workers earn a monthly income below 4000 CNY [70]. The high intensity and relatively low pay of elderly care work deter many young people from entering the field. According to the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security’s 2022 Q4 ranking of the 100 Most In-Demand Occupations nationwide, elderly care workers rose from the 20th position to the 14th, ranking first among health-related professions [71].

Lagging demand-side upgrading: Existing eldercare service personnel generally lack professional training and qualification certification, resulting in significant disparities in service quality. Rural household registration holders account for a substantial proportion of eldercare workers at 63.24%. Those with junior high school education constitute 56.13% of the workforce, while only 2.93% hold bachelor’s degrees or higher. Merely half of eldercare workers possess eldercare-related certificates, 14% hold medical nursing certificates, and 7.8% still lack any professional certification [70]. This adversely affects the quality and efficiency of eldercare services and poses threats to the long-term stable development of the eldercare service system.

Limited payment capacity: Addressing the constraints on the release of elderly care consumption demand during the accelerated aging population and the transitional period of elderly care consumption growth is key to achieving qualitative transformation in this sector [17]. According to the Seventh National Population Census by the National Bureau of Statistics, pensions, support from other family members, and labor income are the top three economic sources for the elderly. Among these, over 30% receive pensions, ranking first in proportion [72]. Particular attention should be paid to the issue of excessively low pension levels in rural areas. Currently, the average actual pension disbursement for farmers is only 188 CNY per month, equivalent to just 5.26% of the average urban worker pension of 3577 CNY per month [73]. The growth rate of pensions fails to keep pace with rising prices and medical costs, limiting the elderly’s ability to sustain long-term care-related expenses. Meanwhile, as life expectancy steadily increases and retirement ages remain relatively early, many elderly individuals face the choice or need to re-enter the labor market. However, during re-employment, they often encounter multiple barriers such as age discrimination, skill mismatches, and poor health conditions. These challenges not only reduce their quality of life but also constrain the potential supply capacity of the labor market.

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Information Feedback: The Value Conflict Between Capital’s Pursuit of Profit and Social Welfare

First, the essence of capital lies in pursuing investment returns. However, certain sectors of the silver economy, particularly elderly care services and long-term care, often come with extended payback periods and lower profit margins, leading to insufficient capital investment in the silver economy and heavy reliance on government support. According to the China Elderly Care Services Development Report 2021, among China’s elderly care institutions, publicly built and publicly operated institutions account for 57.9%, publicly built but privately operated institutions make up 9.6%, and privately built and privately operated institutions represent 32.5%. In terms of annual profit and loss status in 2021, only 6.4% of institutions were profitable, approximately 67.5% broke even, and 26.1% operated at a loss [74]. The profit-driven nature of capital further drives it to adopt a wait-and-see attitude toward elderly care service projects characterized by high risks and low returns, often favoring concentration in high-return sectors (such as investments in health products for the elderly). This may lead to uneven resource allocation and diminished inclusivity, affecting the supply and quality of silver economy products and services.

Secondly, the development of capital is inevitably accompanied by the advancement of science and technology. While technological progress can enhance the efficiency and quality of the silver economy, this process may also bring certain potential risks and challenges. With the continuous development and application of technology, some traditional labor positions may gradually be replaced by automated and intelligent systems, leading to unemployment among certain segments of the workforce. In December 2024, the Outang Nursing Home in Wuxi City, Jiangsu Province, introduced intelligent elderly care robots capable of automated room checks and turning reminders, significantly reducing labor costs [75]. However, this resulted in the reassignment of regular nursing staff. Ultimately, with training subsidies provided by the Huishan District government, some personnel were retrained as robot assistants. This phenomenon may exert greater pressure on groups already facing employment difficulties, potentially affecting social harmony and stability. Consequently, the labor market must swiftly adapt to these changes by supplying appropriately skilled talent. Continuous learning and training are essential to enhance workers’ capabilities and enable them to adapt to the evolving employment landscape.

Thirdly, for the silver-haired demographic, their needs are characterized by diversity and personalization, whereas capital operations often lean toward economies of scale and standardized production. Therefore, actively seeking a balance between meeting personalized demands and achieving economies of scale is a critical issue that capital must carefully consider in the silver economy. Taking feeding robots as an example, in a certain elderly care institution, some seniors have poor dental conditions and eat slowly; some have shaky hands and can swallow after chewing for a while; some are at risk of choking and require attentive care; and others with dementia, like children, cannot sit still for meals and prefer to wander around. Even with standardized feeding robots, only two or three seniors might barely manage to be fed by the machine [76].

4.3.2. Policy Stream

The policy stream refers to the process by which the policy community proposes policy recommendations and alternative solutions regarding social issues. In the policy agenda of the silver economy, the Policy Community, composed of NPC deputies, CPPCC members, experts, and scholars, puts forward professional suggestions or plans, influencing the direction of the policy stream. While this is not an absolute prerequisite, it increases the likelihood of issues entering the policy agenda.

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Proposals and suggestions from committee representatives

During the annual Two Sessions held across the country, numerous committee members and representatives actively voiced their support for the silver economy, putting forward a substantial number of constructive proposals. For instance, Lianyungang Municipal CPPCC member Ji Haixia and others submitted dozens of proposals, including Proposal on Establishing Community-Embedded Home-Based Elderly Care Service Centers and Proposal on Promoting the Construction of Urban Social Elderly Care Service Systems. These proposals focused on improving the community-based elderly care service system, emphasizing the need to leverage communities as a foundation to provide more convenient and attentive home-based care services for the elderly. By integrating elderly care services into daily community life, the proposals aimed to address the practical challenges of home-based care for seniors and meet their needs for aging in familiar surroundings. Since 2020, the city has consistently prioritized elderly care services and related industries as key annual consultation topics for six consecutive years. Through comprehensive approaches such as thematic consultations, research inspections, and conference speeches, the city has provided policy recommendations, many of which have been incorporated into the Lianyungang City Elderly Care Promotion Regulations and the Lianyungang City Integrated Solution for Elderly and Child Care [77].

In addition, Committee Member Hu Qinfeng believes that the elderly care furniture industry holds enormous potential and proposes promoting innovation and upgrading of products such as elderly care furniture. He suggests reducing the cost for seniors to access high-quality elderly care products through rental models and integrating local resources to build an industrial chain, thereby expanding both domestic and international markets. Committee Member Yu Xiangqian focuses on leveraging technology to address the trend of population aging, recommending enhanced promotion of aging-friendly renovations. By utilizing smart healthcare, remote rehabilitation, intelligent devices, and other technological means, he aims to drive the upgrading of health and wellness services. Committee Member Jiang Yanmiao calls for strengthening top-level design to foster interdepartmental collaboration and formulating an action plan for the silver economy that aligns with local characteristics [78].

The proposals and suggestions put forward by committee representatives extensively cover various aspects such as innovation in elderly care service models, development of senior-friendly products, industrial development planning, and promotion of technological applications. These proposals provide insights from different perspectives to foster the growth of the silver economy and serve as a crucial driving force in shaping and refining relevant policies. Grounded in a deep understanding of the needs of the elderly population and a precise grasp of market development trends, these proposals offer valuable ideas and practical directions for the government to formulate scientific and rational policies for the silver economy.

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The suggestions and proposals from experts and scholars

Leveraging their profound professional knowledge and in-depth research on the industry, experts and scholars have put forward numerous forward-looking and instructive perspectives in the field of the silver economy. Some scholars point out that technology adaptation for the elderly is a key factor in helping them integrate into the digital era. Currently, with the rapid development of technologies such as artificial intelligence and big data, greater efforts should be made to apply these technologies in elderly care services [21,79]. For instance, accelerating the establishment of smart nursing homes equipped with intelligent wearable devices, telemedicine systems, radar warning devices, and other smart facilities can enable real-time health monitoring for the elderly through wearable devices. Telemedicine allows the elderly to access professional medical diagnoses without leaving their homes, while radar warning devices can promptly alert caregivers to abnormal behaviors or emergencies, thereby comprehensively improving the quality of life for the elderly and ensuring they enjoy happiness and fulfillment in their later years.

Experts also proposed continuously optimizing the development environment for the silver-haired consumer market, encouraging enterprises to develop more age-friendly products. Examples include companion robots that can provide emotional support and daily care for the elderly, as well as smart home appliances capable of intelligently adjusting to seniors’ physical conditions and living habits, thereby enhancing convenience and comfort in their daily lives [23,80]. Meanwhile, scholars emphasized the need to strengthen top-level design in developing the silver economy by establishing a multi-departmental collaborative mechanism to integrate resources and form a joint development force [11,14,15,20]. In terms of industrial development, efforts should focus on cultivating leading enterprises in the silver economy sector, planning and constructing high-level silver economy industrial parks, building a comprehensive health and elderly care industry chain, and creating an industrial ecosystem to promote the silver economy’s growth toward scale, standardization, clustering, and branding [17,18,19].

In addition, experts have also focused on the impact of the spiritual and cultural needs of the elderly on the silver economy. With the improvement in living standards among the elderly, their demand structure has gradually shifted from survival-oriented to development-oriented [81,82]. Therefore, the developing literature, broadcasting, film and television, music, short videos, and other content industries tailored for the elderly, as well as strengthening the construction of activity venues for sports and board games, will enrich their spiritual and cultural lives and become new growth points for the silver economy. These suggestions and insights from experts and scholars provide important theoretical support and decision-making references for the government in formulating macro policies, for businesses in conducting market operations, and for social forces participating in elderly care services.

4.3.3. Political Stream

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The concepts of the Party and the state

General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasized at the first meeting of the 20th Central Financial and Economic Commission that vigorous efforts should be made to develop the silver economy [83], accelerate the construction of a multi-tiered and multi-pillar pension insurance system, and strive to ensure that the elderly are supported, engaged, and happy. Support should be provided for the elderly care industry to advance toward scale, standardization, clustering, and branding, while cultivating high-end products and high-quality service models. These directives have charted a clear course for the long-term development of the silver economy, highlighting the nation’s strong commitment to improving the quality of life for the elderly and fostering industrial innovation.

From the perspective of planning guidance, the National Medium- and Long-Term Plan for Proactively Responding to Population Aging establishes an institutional framework for addressing China’s aging population across multiple dimensions, including wealth reserves, human resources, material services, technological support, and social environment [84]. Notably, its provisions on expanding health product services, developing elderly care finance, strengthening sci-tech innovation support, and creating age-friendly environments closely align with the development of the silver economy, providing a solid top-level design basis for formulating and implementing relevant policies. The Opinions on Developing the Silver Economy to Enhance the Well-being of the Elderly issued by the General Office of the State Council represents China’s first policy document explicitly named after the “silver economy.” [47]. It outlines 26 specific measures across four key areas—cultivating high-quality business entities, advancing industrial cluster demonstration projects, and improving organizational efficiency within the sector—positioning itself as a programmatic document to propel the silver economy’s growth and inject strong policy-driven momentum into industrial development.

The guidance of national concepts has elevated the silver economy from merely a market-driven economic phenomenon to a level propelled by national strategic initiatives. Under the direction of national policies, local governments have actively responded by increasing resource investments and policy support in the silver economy sector. This has facilitated the deep integration of elderly care industries with other related sectors, promoting high-quality and sustainable development of the silver economy. Such efforts enable the elderly to fully benefit from the achievements of socio-economic development and enjoy a secure and happy retirement.

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Public Opinion Supervision

In today’s highly developed information dissemination landscape, public opinion supervision plays an indispensable role in promoting the healthy development of the silver economy. Through various forms such as in-depth reporting and special programs, the media focuses on hot-button issues in the silver economy sector, fulfilling its crucial function of monitoring market behavior and guiding public discourse. CCTV’s “Silver Hair Traps” investigative series exposed malpractices such as false advertising and fraudulent sales in the health supplement market through meticulous undercover reporting, sparking widespread public attention and strong reactions. By presenting detailed data and real-life cases, the series revealed how unscrupulous businesses exploit elderly consumers’ information asymmetry and urgent health needs to engage in illegal commercial activities, rapidly turning these issues into a focal point of societal debate.

This public oversight initiative has not only drawn significant public attention to the regulation of the elderly consumer market but also accelerated the legislative process. Under public pressure, the drafting of the Elderly Consumer Rights Protection Regulations was expedited, with new clauses added to the draft imposing stricter requirements on the review of health product advertisements and penalties for non-compliant businesses, thereby providing robust legal safeguards for elderly consumers [85]. The State Administration for Market Regulation has also taken the opportunity to launch a special campaign targeting false advertising of medicines and health products for the elderly, strengthening supervision over the elderly consumer market [86]. In the first half of 2025, a large number of false advertising cases were investigated and dealt with, effectively curbing the illegal activities of unscrupulous merchants and purifying the market environment.

Beyond media oversight, online public opinion platforms have become crucial arenas for public engagement in discussions and supervision of the silver economy. After experiencing poor consumer encounters, individuals share their experiences via social media and consumer complaint platforms, generating public pressure that compels businesses to prioritize product quality and service improvements. Through exposure and critique of malpractices, public oversight creates strong societal pressure, forcing enterprises to standardize operations, urging government agencies to enhance market regulation, and fostering the healthy, orderly development of the silver economy.

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Public Sentiment

The public’s attention and attitudes toward the silver economy profoundly reflect society’s concern for the quality of life of the elderly population and its anticipation of new economic development opportunities. As China’s aging population continues to deepen, the proportion of the elderly in society is gradually increasing, and their living needs, consumption capacity, and willingness to consume are receiving growing attention. More and more people recognize that developing the silver economy is not only a necessary means to meet the material and spiritual needs of the elderly but also a crucial opportunity to promote economic restructuring and cultivate new economic growth points.

In public opinion, there is a widespread hope among citizens for more products and services tailored to the elderly, covering areas such as healthcare, elderly care services, and cultural entertainment. They anticipate the market to provide reliable, reasonably priced, and user-friendly products for seniors, such as smart health monitoring devices, comfortable elderly care furniture, and diverse cultural products for the elderly. At the same time, there is also an expectation for elderly care services to become more professional and personalized, including high-quality home-based care services, well-equipped community elderly care facilities, and safe and reliable elderly care institutions. This public sentiment reflects the nation’s aspirations for improving the quality of life for the elderly and also points to the market demand direction for the development of the silver economy.

However, some members of the public also harbor concerns and doubts about the development of the silver economy. Some worry that unscrupulous businesses may exploit the information asymmetry and consumption needs of the elderly to engage in fraudulent sales, harming their interests. This is similar to the frequent incidents of health product scams in the past, which caused financial losses and emotional distress to many families, leading to a crisis of trust in the related market. Additionally, others have raised concerns about issues such as resource allocation and service equity during the development of the silver economy, fearing that the excessive growth of high-end elderly care services and products may skew resources toward a minority, leaving the broader ordinary elderly population unable to fully benefit. This complex public sentiment not only provides market momentum for the development of the silver economy but also urges the government, businesses, and all sectors of society to pay greater attention to industry standards and the rational allocation of resources. This ensures that the development of the silver economy can truly benefit the vast elderly population, achieving an organic unity of economic growth and social equity.

4.4. “Policy Window” Opens

Based on the aforementioned conditions and against the backdrop of a continuously deepening aging population, the development of the silver economy has been elevated to a national strategic level, ushering in a critical policy window. The “Decision of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Further Comprehensively Deepening Reforms and Advancing Chinese Modernization,” adopted at the Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China explicitly states the need to actively respond to population aging and improve policies and mechanisms for developing elderly care services and industries, with a particular emphasis on fostering the silver economy and creating diverse, personalized job opportunities tailored for the elderly. This strategic decision closely links the development of the silver economy with national modernization efforts, injecting strong momentum from the top-level design.

Subsequently, during the formulation of the 15th Five-Year Plan, the silver economy was incorporated as a key sector. The plan focuses on promoting the scaled, standardized, clustered, and branded development of the silver economy, with efforts concentrated on cultivating high-end, precision products and high-quality service models. To achieve this goal, the plan outlines a series of detailed measures spanning multiple dimensions, including industrial support policies, innovation incentive mechanisms, talent development programs, and market standardization. For instance, in terms of industrial support, it explicitly proposes increasing fiscal funding, establishing special development funds, and providing tax incentives, loan interest subsidies, and other support to enterprises engaged in the R&D and production of elderly products and services, thereby reducing operational costs and invigorating market entities (Figure 4).

Throughout the analysis, this study consistently employed qualitative methodologies to bridge theoretical frameworks with empirical data. When examining the characteristics of China’s silver economy, we distilled features such as accelerated aging and diverging market potential through demographic statistics and consumption structure analysis, avoiding the obscuration of structural issues by simplistic quantitative descriptions. In elucidating the intrinsic logic of capital, labor, and surplus value, we transformed abstract Marxist political economic theories into tangible real-world contradictions by incorporating case studies of nursing home profitability and caregivers’ compensation levels. Through multi-source flow modeling, we dynamically illustrated the coupling processes between problem streams, policy flows, and political currents by analyzing policy proposal volumes and public opinion focal points. These analytical processes demonstrate that qualitative methods enabled the study to more accurately capture non-quantifiable characteristics in silver economy development—such as implicit policy guidance, conflicts between capital logic and social welfare values—thereby providing evidence-based arguments aligned with Chinese practical realities.

5. Enlightenment and Recommendations

Based on the analysis in this paper, the high-quality development of the silver economy hinges on coordinating the relationships among capital logic, labor value, and state regulation.

First, it is essential to guide technological innovation to serve the emerging needs of the aging population (e.g., smart eldercare, health management), while preventing technology alienation driven by capital from becoming a tool to exploit the labor value of service providers or exacerbate social exclusion, ensuring that technological progress aligns with the essence of social reproduction.

Furthermore, there is an urgent need to address structural imbalances in the labor market by improving wages and social status for eldercare workers to ensure their sustainable reproduction. Additionally, institutional barriers must be dismantled to unleash the labor potential of healthy, younger seniors, optimizing the distribution of social products for the development of the elderly population and fair compensation for service providers.

Lastly, the state must play a pivotal regulatory role by directing capital toward inclusive and innovative sectors through targeted policies and establishing a robust oversight system to correct market failures. A clear distinction should be maintained between the government’s responsibility to “secure basic needs and provide a safety net” and the boundaries of market efficiency, fostering a synergistic mechanism of an “effective market” and a “capable government.” This will fundamentally reconcile the inherent tension between unlimited capital accumulation and meeting the public welfare needs of the elderly, achieving an organic unity of economic development and social equity.

6. Discussion

6.1. Comparison and Contribution with Existing Research

Building upon the framework of Marxist political economy, this study analyzes the silver economy through the lenses of surplus value production, capital accumulation logic, and the contradictions inherent in production relations. Our approach offers distinct contributions to the existing literature.

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While prior research has productively explored the silver economy from sociological (e.g., elderly care attitudes, social policy) [4,14], managerial (e.g., industry classification, policy instruments), and neoclassical economic perspectives (e.g., market equilibrium, consumption models) [23,25], the fundamental tension between capital and labor within this sector, particularly concerning the production and appropriation of surplus value, has received less systematic attention. This study directly addresses this gap by applying the theory of surplus value. We demonstrate how the drive for profit manifests in the elderly care service sector, specifically through capital’s pressure on variable capital and its implications for service quality and labor relations. This provides a deeper economic logic underpinning observed tensions between profitability and social welfare goals [45];

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Moving beyond the often simplified government-market dyad of neoclassical economics [32], we integrate the Multiple Streams Framework with political economy analysis. This synthesis allows us to trace a more dynamic and contingent policy response mechanism. Specifically, we show how profit-driven capital actions leading to service imbalances (problem stream) interact with existing policy proposals and political factors. Under specific conditions (policy windows), these interactions catalyze institutional adjustments. This integrated framework offers a novel way to understand how structural economic contradictions within the silver economy translate into, and are mediated through, the complex policy processes characteristic of China’s evolving political–economic context;

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Existing studies have acknowledged the conflict between capital interests and social welfare provision in the silver economy [45]. However, this study argues that the persistent structural dilemmas are fundamentally rooted in a deeper contradiction: the inherent conflict between capital’s imperative for accumulation and the social reproduction needs of the aging population. This perspective shifts the explanatory focus beyond conventional market failure narratives to illuminate the systemic tensions arising from the production relations themselves.

6.2. Future Research Directions

Building on this foundation, several promising avenues for future research emerge:

Comparative Political Economy of Aging: While focused on China, the political economy framework developed here invites comparative analysis. Future studies could examine how the logic of capital operates within the silver economy across different socio-political systems (e.g., comparing welfare states in Europe/North America with developing economies). Such comparisons would test the framework’s generalizability and reveal how distinct institutional arrangements mediate the capital-labor-welfare nexus in aging societies.

Empirical Validation and Quantification: To strengthen the empirical grounding of our qualitative analysis, future research should incorporate quantitative methods. Promising avenues include the following. (1) Rigorous econometric analyses correlating capital investment patterns with measurable service quality outcomes and caregiver working conditions. (2) Quantitative investigations into the labor value of care work, potentially employing methods like time-use studies coupled with wage analysis, to empirically substantiate claims about surplus value extraction and variable capital compression in the sector.

Policy Implementation and Impact Evaluation: The policy implications and multi-stream analysis presented here need refinement into actionable interventions and empirical testing. Future research should (1) design and track specific policy experiments or regulatory reforms informed by this framework and (2) conduct longitudinal case studies to evaluate the effectiveness of different policy tools in mitigating the identified structural contradictions and improving equitable access to quality elderly care within the constraints of a market-based system.

7. Conclusions

This study employs an interdisciplinary analysis integrating Marxist political economy with the Multiple Streams Framework to elucidate the inherent logic and structural dilemmas of the silver economy in the new era. (1) At the theoretical level, it demonstrates that the silver economy essentially constitutes a new frontier for capital’s pursuit of surplus value expansion, with its development constrained by the contradiction between capital accumulation laws and labor value realization. The theory of surplus value effectively explains phenomena such as service homogenization and caregiver shortages, while the Multiple Streams Framework provides an analytical closed-loop of “economic laws—political response” for policy intervention. (2) At the practical level, the study proposes that resolving these dilemmas requires coordinated efforts across three dimensions—technological innovation (restructuring productive forces and relations), labor market reform (ensuring labor value distribution), and state regulation (reconciling capital with social welfare), thereby offering policy formulation directions that combine theoretical depth with operational feasibility.