Climate Policy in Developing Countries: Analysis of Climate Mitigation and Adaptation Measures in Egypt
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Theoretical Background: Nationally Determined Contributions
3. Research Setting
3.1. Egypt’s Economic Sectors and GHG Emissions
3.2. Research Method
NDC Assessment Method
- Mitigation ambition: The NDC submission cycles urge countries to present updated NDCs that exceed their previous targets, primarily emphasizing enhancing mitigation efforts. If countries fail to increase their level of ambition while presenting a new NDC, then the cycle falls short of achieving its intended objective.
- Comprehensiveness: This element ensures the inclusion of all necessary NDC components, both mandatory and non-mandatory. The NDC should address climate change mitigation, all applicable emission gas types, and sector coverage on both mitigation and adaptation fronts.
- Implementation plan: The purpose of NDCs is to encourage Parties to undertake climate action at the national level. NDCs must be firmly based on the national policy-making process for successful implementation. A successful implementation is facilitated when certain conditions are met, including the existence of sector-specific objectives, a rigorous preparation process, a well-defined implementation plan, and the incorporation of the targets into the national laws of the country.
- Transparency: For Parties to voluntarily increase their NDCs, trust plays a crucial role. Such trust can be established through substantial transparency in the information disclosed in their respective NDCs. This includes transparent and comprehensible information on accounting methods and data, specifically concerning the resulting emission levels.
- + The new NDC provides more detail than the previous one.
- (-) The new NDC provides less detail than the previous one.
- O There is no change between the NDCs.
- ? The change between the NDCs is not clear.
4. Results: Recent Progress
4.1. Egypt’s Institutional Arrangement and Policy Instruments
4.1.1. Climate Policy Actors
4.1.2. Climate Policy Strategies
4.1.3. Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Measures and Achievements
Agriculture and Livelihoods
Infrastructure
Green Finance
4.2. Results of NDC Analysis
4.2.1. Mitigation Ambition Level
4.2.2. Comprehensiveness
4.2.3. Implementation Plan
4.2.4. Transparency
5. Discussion and Policy Implications
5.1. Mitigation Progress and Transparency
5.2. Mitigation Coverage: Inclusion and Exclusion
5.3. Net-Zero Target Is Missing
5.4. Renewable Energy and Fossil Gas
5.5. Strengthening Implementability
5.5.1. Legal Framework
5.5.2. Financial Conditionality
5.5.3. Technical Conditionality and Innovation Ecosystem
5.5.4. Awareness and Cultural Revolution
6. Limitations and Future Research
7. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Informed Consent Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A
Element | Intended NDC | Updated NDC | Change |
---|---|---|---|
Scope | |||
Mitigation | The NDC gives no absolute emission target level for 2030. The NDC does not present a long-term or net-zero target. | The NDC gives an absolute emission target for 2030. The target covers several sectors. The NDC does not present a long-term or net-zero target. | + |
Adaptation | The NDC presents an adaptation component covering national circumstances, vulnerability, and climate change impact. The NDC contained a section that descriptively outlined several adaptation action packages covering seven sectors. | The NDC presents an adaptation component covering national circumstances and Egypt’s vulnerability to climate change impacts. The NDC also reviewed actions taken to implement the first NDC since 2015. The NDC contains a chapter that describes several adaptation measures addressing four sectors, with more details and clearly defined goal-oriented action plans and programs focusing on the main sectors that are more susceptible to climate change in Egypt. In addition, the NDC describes other adaptation measures, such as establishing an early warning system and building resilience for the most vulnerable and marginal regions. | + |
Economic diversification | Not included in the NDC. | The updated NDC provided information on the potential mitigation co-benefits of the adaptation actions, such as the impacts of rainwater harvesting on the use of energy, and the impact of using renewable energy on developing unconventional water sources (e.g., solar desalination). | + |
Financing | Approximately USD 73.04 billion is estimated as a preliminary cost of implementing listed adaptation and mitigation measures. Limited information about financing sources. | NDC indicated that Egypt received USD 10.27 billion from development partners to accelerate the SDG vision. The NDC estimates the total cost of implementing mitigation and adaptation actions at USD 196 billion and USD 50 billion, respectively, and includes a table of cost distribution across sectors. Additionally, the NDC provides more detailed information about financing sources and a separate section about green finance. | + |
Technology transfer and capacity building | The NDC, in one sentence, highlighted the need for the transfer of technology appropriate to the local context and national capacity building. | The NDC emphasizes the importance of technology transfer and capacity building. The document acknowledges that administrative capacities and data management competencies are a challenge, and a supportive legal framework for climate action does not exist. To address these issues, the NDC proposes the use of MRV (monitoring, reporting, and verification) to measure the effectiveness of mitigation and adaptation actions and to scale up measures across Egypt. The NDC also emphasizes the need for climate know-how to be freely available in Egypt to support capacity building, as access to climate-friendly technology is currently limited. | + |
Mitigation ambition | |||
Country’s formulation of the target | Not included in the NDC. | The NDC does not include a comprehensive target for GHG emissions reduction, but instead provides projections of Business As Usual (BAU) emissions by 2030 for three sectors. The document also quantifies the expected GHG reductions resulting from the implementation of ongoing and planned mitigation projects. | O |
Resulting emission level in 2030, excl. LULUCF (land use, land-use change, and forestry) | Not included in the NDC. | The NDC does not include a comprehensive target for GHG emissions reduction, excl. LULUCF. | O |
Conditionality | Not included in the NDC. | The updated NDC states that a minimum of USD 246 billion in financial resources is required up to 2030, with USD 196 billion needed for mitigation interventions and USD 50 billion for adaptation interventions. The NDC also emphasizes that the implementation of these measures is contingent on receiving adequate international finance through concessional finance and grants. | + |
Need for new policies to meet the target | The NDC included a list of policies and actions to mitigate emissions in the energy and non-energy sectors. | The updated NDC offers a more extensive list of mitigation and adaptation measures compared to the first NDC, providing detailed descriptions of policies implemented since 2015 and future policies. | + |
LULUCF and removals | No quantified emission mitigation targets per sector. | The updated NDC does not provide quantified emission mitigation targets for LULUCF sectors, only details on electricity, oil and gas, and transport. | O |
Net-zero target | Not included in the NDC. | Not included in the NDC. | O |
Alignment of NDC with long-term target/net-zero target | Not included in the NDC. | Not included in the NDC. | O |
Intended use of Article 6 | Not included in the NDC. | The NDC states that Egypt has expressed its interest in participating in emerging international carbon markets that are governed by Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, as a means of voluntary cooperation. | + |
Explicit consideration of cost reductions of renewables during the last 5 years | Not included in the NDC. | No explicit information on cost reductions, but details on the installed amount of renewable energy and increased energy efficiency in the electricity sector. | + |
Consideration of ambition of subnational and non-state actors | Not included in the NDC. | The information provided is limited, with only a few examples given, such as the involvement of private actors in green finance or the “Decent Life” initiative. | + |
Mitigation completeness | |||
Sector coverage | List of mitigation measures: 1. Energy subsector
| Quantified emission reduction targets in three:
| (-) |
Sectors targeted with adaptation measures:
| Adaptation targeted sectors:
| ||
Gas coverage | Not included in the NDC. | Three types:
| + |
Mitigation implementation | |||
Sectoral targets | The NDC outlines various sector-specific actions to be taken in order to address climate change but provides no quantitative information. | The revised NDC specifies quantified targets for reducing GHG emissions in three sectors (electricity, oil and gas, and transportation). The NDC also includes measures targeting other sectors, although without GHG reduction targets. | + |
NDC preparation process | Not included in the NDC. | The NDC states that the planning and implementation of climate measures follows participatory approaches through collaboration among governments, the private sector, civil society, academia, media, the international community, and other concerned stakeholders. | + |
Clarity of national and sectoral implementation plans | NDC generally listed different sectoral actions to be taken to mitigate or adapt to climate change. | The updated NDC provides comprehensive information on 35 mitigation and adaptation measures addressing 9 economic sectors. The updated NDC has a clearly defined implementation period and is aligned with different national and sectoral strategies. The Climate Change Central Department (CCCD) is responsible for coordinating climate change efforts between all entities. An MRV has been proposed but not yet fully institutionalized. | + |
National climate law(s) | Not included in the NDC. | Although the NDC enumerates the legal acts that regulate the institutional framework, it lacks clarity regarding whether the NDC or the revised mitigation target is legally binding. As for accountability, the NDC includes quantified targets for three sectors but provides a detailed account of actions aimed at numerous other sectors without specifying quantified targets. | + |
Transparency | |||
Availability of information to estimate resulting emissions level of target | Not included in the NDC. | “GHG emissions in the base year 2015 were quantified based on data available in Egypt’s GHG Inventory submitted to the UNFCCC in 2019 under the First BUR. The modeling of the 2030 projections (BAU and target reductions) was based on an analysis of Egypt’s Low Emission Development Strategy (LEDS) utilizing the LEAP software. Explicit calculations, estimations, and projections are reported only for three sectors, and the target for total emissions in 2030 is not reported.” | + |
Followed the guidance in information to facilitate clarity, transparency, and understanding of NDCs in Decision 4/CMA.1 | Not applicable. | The updated NDC contains a table listing all elements from Annex I to Decision 4/CMA.1, along with information provided for each element. However, certain elements under “scope and coverage,” “planning process,” and “assumptions and methodological approaches” are stated as being not applicable. | + |
Accounting modalities | Not included in the NDC. | The NDC specifies the specific GWP metrics utilized and mandates that GHG calculations must adhere to the IPCC’s guidelines for national GHG inventory. | + |
An explanation of why the target is a fair contribution towards the global goal | Not included. | The NDC provides two justifications for why the revised mitigation target constitutes a fair contribution to the global objective. Firstly, despite Egypt’s minimal contribution to global emissions, the NDC highlights the country’s susceptibility to the effects of climate change, particularly in relation to the resilience of its coastal and agricultural sectors. Secondly, the NDC notes that the achievement of its present targets is dependent on securing international support for their execution. | + |
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Abdelaty, H.; Weiss, D.; Mangelkramer, D. Climate Policy in Developing Countries: Analysis of Climate Mitigation and Adaptation Measures in Egypt. Sustainability 2023, 15, 9121. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15119121
Abdelaty H, Weiss D, Mangelkramer D. Climate Policy in Developing Countries: Analysis of Climate Mitigation and Adaptation Measures in Egypt. Sustainability. 2023; 15(11):9121. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15119121
Chicago/Turabian StyleAbdelaty, Hamdy, Daniel Weiss, and Delia Mangelkramer. 2023. "Climate Policy in Developing Countries: Analysis of Climate Mitigation and Adaptation Measures in Egypt" Sustainability 15, no. 11: 9121. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15119121