Neural Networks as an Alternative Tool for Predicting Fossil Fuel Dependency and GHG Production in Transport
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Time Series Predicting by Means of MS-Excel Spreadsheet
2.2. Time Series Predicting by Means of Orange Software (Neural Networks)
2.3. Input Data for Processing by Means of Spreadsheet and Neural Network
3. Results
3.1. Spreadsheet-Predicted Amounts of Air Pollutants Produced in Period 2021–2050 within EU27
3.2. Neural Network-Predicted Amounts of Air Pollutants Produced in Period 2021–2050 within EU27
3.2.1. Amounts of NOx Produced in Period 2021–2050 within EU27 [Kton] Predicted by Spreadsheet and Neural Network
3.2.2. Amounts of SOx Produced in the Period 2021–2050 within EU27 [Kton] Predicted by Spreadsheet and Neural Network
3.2.3. Amounts of NH3 Produced in the Period 2021–2050 within EU27 [Kton] Predicted by Spreadsheet and Neural Network
3.2.4. Amounts of PTCL2.5 Produced in the Period 2021–2050 within EU27 [Kton] Predicted by Spreadsheet and Neural Network
3.2.5. Amounts of PTCL10 Produced in the Period 2021–2050 within EU27 [Kton] Predicted by Spreadsheet and Neural Network
3.2.6. Amounts of NMVOC Produced in the Period 2021–2050 within EU27 [kton] Predicted by Spreadsheet and Neural Network
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Year | Nitrogen Oxides [t] | Sulphur Oxides [t] | Ammonia [t] | Particles <2.5 μm [t]< | Particles <10 μm [t]< | Non-Methane Volatile Organic Compounds [t] |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1990 | 14,901,060 | 21,027,390 | 4,916,130 | 2,853,320 | 4,268,570 | 15,869,850 |
1991 | 14,661,480 | 18,962,410 | 4,668,480 | 2,770,890 | 4,117,520 | 15,203,760 |
1992 | 14,330,450 | 16,986,670 | 4,424,300 | 2,600,970 | 3,848,030 | 14,611,660 |
1993 | 13,732,310 | 16,290,640 | 4,290,110 | 2,545,090 | 3,743,440 | 14,044,140 |
1994 | 13,271,010 | 15,257,280 | 4,174,810 | 2,394,950 | 3,535,540 | 13,053,260 |
1995 | 12,956,820 | 13,904,350 | 4,107,060 | 2,319,530 | 3,391,500 | 12,702,510 |
1996 | 12,819,520 | 13,087,430 | 4,146,200 | 2,341,570 | 3,398,750 | 12,516,040 |
1997 | 12,384,550 | 12,095,900 | 4,113,820 | 2,233,740 | 3,253,500 | 12,086,710 |
1998 | 12,092,420 | 10,903,730 | 4,122,610 | 2,132,070 | 3,170,040 | 11,730,360 |
1999 | 11,747,860 | 9,708,620 | 4,099,850 | 2,033,370 | 3,004,410 | 11,205,560 |
2000 | 11,391,420 | 8,685,400 | 4,031,680 | 1,935,520 | 2,892,440 | 10,598,430 |
2001 | 11,241,240 | 8,335,780 | 4,000,790 | 1,884,810 | 2,854,730 | 10,177,200 |
2002 | 11,044,840 | 7,951,150 | 3,938,270 | 1,771,000 | 2,725,410 | 9,772,590 |
2003 | 10,943,580 | 7,551,640 | 3,912,460 | 1,817,580 | 2,774,510 | 9,535,470 |
2004 | 10,816,840 | 7,189,600 | 3,872,030 | 1,763,000 | 2,725,130 | 9,258,790 |
2005 | 10,649,440 | 6,880,950 | 3,824,300 | 1,747,110 | 2,683,650 | 9,080,750 |
2006 | 10,396,420 | 6,670,110 | 3,798,120 | 1,705,760 | 2,643,890 | 8,887,150 |
2007 | 10,102,010 | 6,342,450 | 3,822,240 | 1,682,400 | 2,596,010 | 8,542,590 |
2008 | 9,404,150 | 4,809,430 | 3,725,190 | 1,660,070 | 2,555,080 | 8,234,930 |
2009 | 8,701,210 | 4,006,880 | 3,646,960 | 1,588,700 | 2,418,430 | 7,696,650 |
2010 | 8,500,370 | 3,685,760 | 3,614,760 | 1,610,500 | 2,423,640 | 7,648,970 |
2011 | 8,189,730 | 3,581,300 | 3,584,500 | 1,492,090 | 2,289,350 | 7,262,400 |
2012 | 7,869,350 | 3,158,480 | 3,571,470 | 1,495,340 | 2,248,970 | 7,095,560 |
2013 | 7,514,780 | 2,734,880 | 3,571,760 | 1,470,990 | 2,219,370 | 6,874,490 |
2014 | 7,253,620 | 2,540,260 | 3,594,520 | 1,345,810 | 2,081,390 | 6,649,600 |
2015 | 7,113,550 | 2,440,410 | 3,635,460 | 1,356,510 | 2,092,960 | 6,615,750 |
2016 | 6,899,690 | 2,068,400 | 3,633,290 | 1,332,910 | 2,060,410 | 6,571,950 |
2017 | 6,751,610 | 2,029,410 | 3,647,290 | 1,333,590 | 2,067,410 | 6,634,580 |
2018 | 6,475,440 | 1,884,460 | 3,613,460 | 1,290,730 | 2,026,410 | 6,498,640 |
2019 | 6,140,700 | 1,649,110 | 3,532,320 | 1,251,260 | 1,978,830 | 6,408,660 |
2020 | 6,004,312 | 1,522,897 | 3,482,297 | 1,248,788 | 1,968,812 | 6,324,478 |
Year | Nitrogen Oxides [t] | Sulphur Oxides [t] | Ammonia [t] | Particulates <2.5 μm [t]< | Particulates <10 μm [t]< | Non Methane Volatile Organic Compounds [t] |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2021 | 5,820,648 | 1,366,942 | 3,447,222 | 1,212,296 | 1,936,785 | 6,238,565 |
2022 | 5,656,243 | 1,219,708 | 3,412,147 | 1,175,878 | 1,904,817 | 6,152,666 |
2023 | 5,491,839 | 1,072,475 | 3,377,072 | 1,139,461 | 1,872,849 | 6,066,767 |
2024 | 5,327,434 | 925,241 | 3,341,996 | 1,103,044 | 1,840,881 | 5,980,868 |
2025 | 5,163,029 | 778,008 | 3,306,921 | 1,066,627 | 1,808,913 | 5,894,969 |
2026 | 4,998,624 | 630,774 | 3,271,846 | 1,030,210 | 1,776,945 | 5,809,070 |
2027 | 4,834,220 | 483,541 | 3,236,771 | 993,793 | 1,744,977 | 5,723,171 |
2028 | 4,669,815 | 336,307 | 3,201,696 | 957,376 | 1,713,009 | 5,637,272 |
2029 | 4,505,410 | 189,074 | 3,166,621 | 920,959 | 1,681,040 | 5,551,373 |
2030 | 4,341,005 | 41,840 | 3,131,545 | 884,542 | 1,649,072 | 5,465,474 |
2031 | 4,176,601 | 0 | 3,096,470 | 848,125 | 1,617,104 | 5,379,574 |
2032 | 4,012,196 | 0 | 3,061,395 | 811,708 | 1,585,136 | 5,293,675 |
2033 | 3,847,791 | 0 | 3,026,320 | 775,291 | 1,553,168 | 5,207,776 |
2034 | 3,683,386 | 0 | 2,991,245 | 738,874 | 1,521,200 | 5,121,877 |
2035 | 3,518,981 | 0 | 2,956,170 | 702,457 | 1,489,232 | 5,035,978 |
2036 | 3,354,577 | 0 | 2,921,094 | 666,039 | 1,457,264 | 4,950,079 |
2037 | 3,190,172 | 0 | 2,886,019 | 629,622 | 1,425,295 | 4,864,180 |
2038 | 3,025,767 | 0 | 2,850,944 | 593,205 | 1,393,327 | 4,778,281 |
2039 | 2,861,362 | 0 | 2,815,869 | 556,788 | 1,361,359 | 4,692,382 |
2040 | 2,696,958 | 0 | 2,780,794 | 520,371 | 1,329,391 | 4,606,483 |
2041 | 2,532,553 | 0 | 2,745,719 | 483,954 | 1,297,423 | 4,520,584 |
2042 | 2,368,148 | 0 | 2,710,643 | 447,537 | 1,265,455 | 4,434,685 |
2043 | 2,203,743 | 0 | 2,675,568 | 411,120 | 1,233,487 | 4,348,786 |
2044 | 2,039,339 | 0 | 2,640,493 | 374,703 | 1,201,519 | 4,262,886 |
2045 | 1,874,934 | 0 | 2,605,418 | 338,286 | 1,169,550 | 4,176,987 |
2046 | 1,710,529 | 0 | 2,570,343 | 301,869 | 1,137,582 | 4,091,088 |
2047 | 1,546,124 | 0 | 2,535,268 | 265,452 | 1,105,614 | 4,005,189 |
2048 | 1,381,720 | 0 | 2,500,192 | 229,035 | 1,073,646 | 3,919,290 |
2049 | 1,217,315 | 0 | 2,465,117 | 192,618 | 1,041,678 | 3,833,391 |
2050 | 1,052,910 | 0 | 2,430,042 | 156,200 | 1,009,710 | 3,747,492 |
Year | Nitrogen Oxides [t] | Sulphur Oxides [t] | Ammonia [t] | Particulates <2.5 μm [t]< | Particulates <10 μm [t]< | Non Methane Volatile Organic Compounds [t] |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2021 | 5,954,769 | 1,341,112 | 3,306,595 | 1,259,483 | 2,038,350 | 6,187,751 |
2022 | 5,511,324 | 1,346,740 | 3,326,178 | 1,270,856 | 1,802,179 | 6,281,076 |
2023 | 5,450,415 | 1,068,363 | 3,234,359 | 1,240,298 | 1,767,269 | 5,970,638 |
2024 | 5,421,707 | 1,046,687 | 3,334,266 | 1,130,779 | 1,852,372 | 5,923,834 |
2025 | 5,108,164 | 764,739 | 3,380,054 | 1,107,260 | 1,683,486 | 5,948,722 |
2026 | 4,913,650 | 750,567 | 3,181,173 | 1,037,507 | 1,680,868 | 5,761,074 |
2027 | 4,863,381 | 403,889 | 3,315,392 | 940,454 | 1,702,234 | 5,637,475 |
2028 | 4,637,419 | 242,763 | 3,139,806 | 966,059 | 1,584,052 | 5,719,721 |
2029 | 4,489,271 | 302,982 | 3,138,580 | 1,066,913 | 1,640,162 | 5,594,310 |
2030 | 4,347,231 | 116,087 | 3,125,490 | 867,227 | 1,781,899 | 5,415,198 |
2031 | 4,050,147 | −66,349 | 3,161,219 | 816,074 | 1,628,682 | 5,524,755 |
2032 | 3,899,745 | 22,860 | 3,173,472 | 912,925 | 1,474,016 | 5,269,354 |
2033 | 3,738,309 | 0 | 2,900,424 | 853,859 | 1,559,637 | 5,352,088 |
2034 | 3,722,490 | 0 | 2,848,026 | 705,654 | 1,401,767 | 5,166,573 |
2035 | 3,506,624 | 0 | 2,997,306 | 772,890 | 1,624,687 | 4,979,976 |
2036 | 3,210,652 | 0 | 2,826,739 | 595,473 | 1,447,588 | 4,925,885 |
2037 | 3,141,298 | 0 | 2,794,423 | 707,142 | 1,450,066 | 4,722,056 |
2038 | 3,077,768 | 0 | 2,805,856 | 723,679 | 1,512,396 | 4,757,959 |
2039 | 2,788,151 | 0 | 2,962,224 | 621,784 | 1,394,534 | 4,685,620 |
2040 | 2,602,086 | 0 | 2,759,143 | 560,146 | 1,470,097 | 4,661,514 |
2041 | 2,670,503 | 0 | 2,609,174 | 624,495 | 1,313,167 | 4,444,152 |
2042 | 2,446,321 | 0 | 2,731,840 | 501,841 | 1,353,022 | 4,575,003 |
2043 | 2,119,749 | 0 | 2,542,882 | 321,021 | 1,147,957 | 4,371,095 |
2044 | 1,958,518 | 0 | 2,603,874 | 437,067 | 1,099,716 | 4,279,230 |
2045 | 1,797,420 | 0 | 2,594,455 | 313,197 | 1,047,350 | 4,101,911 |
2046 | 1,704,763 | 0 | 2,568,640 | 294,273 | 1,252,113 | 4,163,454 |
2047 | 1,418,529 | 0 | 2,564,543 | 199,272 | 1,023,958 | 3,859,325 |
2048 | 1,467,217 | 0 | 2,589,877 | 284,154 | 1,091,714 | 3,907,173 |
2049 | 1,190,768 | 0 | 2,403,692 | 170,732 | 980,604 | 3,932,860 |
2050 | 1,178,674 | 0 | 2,477,832 | 230,263 | 876,873 | 3,681,273 |
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Malinovsky, V. Neural Networks as an Alternative Tool for Predicting Fossil Fuel Dependency and GHG Production in Transport. Sustainability 2022, 14, 11231. https://doi.org/10.3390/su141811231
Malinovsky V. Neural Networks as an Alternative Tool for Predicting Fossil Fuel Dependency and GHG Production in Transport. Sustainability. 2022; 14(18):11231. https://doi.org/10.3390/su141811231
Chicago/Turabian StyleMalinovsky, Vit. 2022. "Neural Networks as an Alternative Tool for Predicting Fossil Fuel Dependency and GHG Production in Transport" Sustainability 14, no. 18: 11231. https://doi.org/10.3390/su141811231
APA StyleMalinovsky, V. (2022). Neural Networks as an Alternative Tool for Predicting Fossil Fuel Dependency and GHG Production in Transport. Sustainability, 14(18), 11231. https://doi.org/10.3390/su141811231