Risk Control in Optimization of Cascade Hydropower: Considering Water Abandonment Risk Probability
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Methodology
2.1. Description of WARP
2.2. TEM of WARP Based on Runoff Forecasting Error
2.2.1. WARP of the Head Hydropower Station
2.2.2. WARP of the Downstream Hydropower Station
- (1)
- The expected release of each cascade reservoir
- (2)
- WARP calculation based on the expected release of the upstream reservoir
2.3. Cascade Hydropower Optimal Operation Model under WARP
2.3.1. Objective Function
2.3.2. Constraints
- (1)
- General constraints
- (2)
- WARP water level constraints
2.3.3. Solution
2.4. Entire Solution Process
3. Case Study
3.1. Study Area and Data
3.2. Results and Discussion
3.2.1. The Probability Distribution of Runoff Forecast Errors
3.2.2. Hydropower Optimal Operation Strategy
3.2.3. Water Abandonment
3.2.4. WARP
3.2.5. Efficient Utilization of Medium and Small Flood Resources
4. Conclusions
- (1)
- The optimal scheme ensures an invariable water level at the beginning and end of the operation period, while the water level is higher than the historical scheme during most of the operation period due to the addition of WARP water level constraints (water climbing constraints for a certain period);
- (2)
- Water abandonment, especially in the downstream hydropower stations with small reservoir capacity caused by runoff uncertainties and forecast errors, can be flexibly alleviated and controlled to efficiently utilize flood resources. In the case study, compared with the historical scheme, the total amount of water abandonment in DHS, GLQ and DHS-GLQ decreases by 11.69%, 47.69% and 28.27%, respectively;
- (3)
- Adopting the appropriate WARP water level constraints can effectively guide the head hydropower station with a large reservoir capacity to function as a flood storage at the early stage to stagger the downstream flood peak. In the case study, the flood peak in the GLQ optimal scheme is reduced by 21.6% compared with that in the historical scheme;
- (4)
- The output may be reduced appropriately to meet the requirement to increase the water level at the early stage but improved with greater head efficiency at the later stage, and thereby the system generation profits of the whole operation period can be improved.
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
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Name | DHS | GLQ | Location Diagram of the Two Reservoirs |
---|---|---|---|
Watershed flow concentration area (km2) | 4328 | 4735 | |
Annual average runoff (m3/s) | 75 | 82 | |
Reservoir regulation capacity | incomplete annual | daily | |
Unit maximum overflow (m3/s) | 165 | 202.6 | |
Normal water level (m) | 868.00 | 719.00 | |
Flood control level (m) | 868.00 | 719.00 | |
Dead water level (m) | 845.00 | 709.00 | |
Installed capacity (MW) | 2 × 100 | 2 × 75 |
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Zhang, X.; Fang, G.; Ye, J.; Liu, J.; Wen, X.; Wu, C. Risk Control in Optimization of Cascade Hydropower: Considering Water Abandonment Risk Probability. Sustainability 2022, 14, 10911. https://doi.org/10.3390/su141710911
Zhang X, Fang G, Ye J, Liu J, Wen X, Wu C. Risk Control in Optimization of Cascade Hydropower: Considering Water Abandonment Risk Probability. Sustainability. 2022; 14(17):10911. https://doi.org/10.3390/su141710911
Chicago/Turabian StyleZhang, Xinyi, Guohua Fang, Jian Ye, Jin Liu, Xin Wen, and Chengjun Wu. 2022. "Risk Control in Optimization of Cascade Hydropower: Considering Water Abandonment Risk Probability" Sustainability 14, no. 17: 10911. https://doi.org/10.3390/su141710911