Improving the Sustainability of Regional Development in the Context of Waste Management

Abstract

Waste generation and use is one of civilization’s main problems. Realizing the goals of the concept of sustainable development is one solution to this issue. Sustainable waste management is impossible without measurements and without assessing compliance with economic, environmental, and social criteria; therefore, quantitative information and indicators play an important role in solving these issues. Methods used to diagnose the sustainability of waste management should include both an assessment of indicators and a diagnosis of the reasons for changes. The approach proposed in this paper is based on the development of an integrated indicator which includes social, economic, and environmental factors, reflects the state of legislative and executive initiatives in the field of sustainable waste management through specific macroeconomic indicators, which should make it possible to identify the causes of sustainable/non-sustainable waste management.

1. Introduction

Waste management is one of the most important environmental problems of our time, posing a great danger to both the environment and the present and future generations [1]. This is an urgent issue for the world community in the framework of the concept of sustainable development and conservation of ecosystems of the sea and land. To solve the problem of the generation and use of waste means to find a way out of the growing environmental crisis in which humanity is currently living and which can lead to the destruction of society. The ecological crisis is a consequence of an imbalance in ecological systems, in the relationship between society and nature, and a consequence of contradictions between consumer relationships to the environment and the ability of nature to self-repair. The economy is constantly “developing two opposing trends: global gross income is growing, and global wealth (or livelihood resources) are declining.” “All Earth systems are rapidly moving to their biophysical limits; there is evidence that these limits are already close, and in some cases even exceeded” [1]. Historians say that in the history of the Earth there already have been cases of the downfall of human civilizations. A clear example of this is the disappearance of the highly developed civilization of Atlantis [2]. Researchers cite natural, man-made, and social factors as the cause of its alleged disappearance.

The generation and use of waste in Russia are part of a global problem, due to Russia’s geographical and economic features [1]. Russia occupies 1/6 of the world’s landmass, and its forests account for 22% of the area of forests worldwide. Mining production prevails in the structure of gross value added, and the ecological footprint is growing rapidly (Figure 1). Negative impacts on the environmental situation in the country have a strong influence on the global environmental balance.

The 17 goals and 169 tasks of sustainable development developed by the UN and the World Bank Group provide states with the right to independently develop a national system of indicators and program documents that take into account country specifics [4].

The main purpose of the work is a systemic analysis of the problem of management, generation, and waste use in Russia, using a set of statistical methods and economic and mathematical modeling. Separate work tasks include an analysis of the dynamics of the generation and use of waste by type of economic activity and hazard class, identification and justification of the factors due to waste management in Russia that do not comply with the principles of sustainable development and, finally, development of a practical method for the analysis of sustainable/unsustainable waste management, including the stages of assessment, diagnosis, and forecasting of the integrative indicators of waste management.

2. Theoretical Framework and Literature Review

Waste generation and use is a complex problem with a number of diverse consequences. To develop a method for sustainable waste management, it is necessary to understand which components (subject areas) it should contain, what will serve as the assessment indicator (the final result of the assessment), and which methods and tools should be used to determine it.

The global practice of waste management is analyzed in three main directions (Figure 2).

First, waste management issues are an element of the concept of sustainable development, the state of which determines the achievement of many goals of the concept [5]. Concurrently, researchers analyze the key characteristics of various models of waste management and the possibilities these models present from the standpoint of sustainable waste management.

Morrissey A.J. and Browne J. found that, although many waste management models recognize the need to take into account environmental, economic, and social aspects, none of the models considered by the authors included all three aspects together when applying these models [6]. None of them considered the intergenerational effects of the proposed strategies.

Grönlund S.E., by exploring indicators and methods for assessing the sustainability of wastewater sludge management, proved the need to use an integrated approach to reduce the negative impact of waste on the environment [7].

The works of other authors are aimed at developing the models and methods of waste management themselves. Yakubu Y. and Zhou J. have proposed a new approach to quantifying municipal solid waste management based on the analytical hierarchy process [8]. Equations developed by the authors of the model for the hierarchy of municipal solid waste, when used correctly, support the sustainable management of municipal solid waste.

Asefi H. and Lim S. considered multidimensional approaches to modeling integrated management of municipal solid waste, aimed at satisfying sustainability requirements in the design of the system, taking into account economic, environmental, and social factors [9]. They developed a model to minimize fixed costs and transport costs and maximize system stability.

Martinez-Hernandez E., Leung Pah Hang MY, Leach M. and Yang A. proposed conceptual characteristics and a mathematical model of a local production system with techno-ecological interactions to support symbiosis between the industrial system and the ecosystem to create a sustainable techno-ecological system [10].

Costi P., Minciardi R., Robba M., Rovatti M., and Sacile R. also proposed an environmentally sustainable decision-making model for municipal solid waste management based on non-linear optimization [11]. The objective function of the model takes into account various economic costs and technical, regulatory, and environmental problems.

The focus of the study is a multi-purpose model for the processing of municipal solid waste that meets the goals of sustainable development [12]. To achieve sustainable development, three of its dimensions are included in the objective function of the model. The function of the economic goal maximizes the profit of the system. The environmental protection objective minimizes emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂), sulfur oxide (SO₂), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and heavy metals. The social goal function attempts to maximize the social impact of the network.

Hoang G. M., Fujiwara T., Pham Phu T. S., and Nguyen L. D. have developed a sustainable solid waste management system using a multi-purpose decision-making model which is based on the method of ensuring maximum social acceptability [13]. Economic and environmental benefits, including minimizing landfills and polluting emissions, were the goals of the waste management system.

Kozyr N.S., Petrovskaya N.E., and Zazimko V.L., in their research, note that the main goals of waste management are “to reduce pressure on the environment, increase human health, rational use of natural resources, and promote the viability of ecological systems” [14].

It should be emphasized that the considered works do not consider models of sustainable waste management at the macro level from the standpoint of compliance with the economic, environmental, and social components of the concept of sustainable development within the framework of the state policy. Although, of course, the models of these researchers are of undoubted interest for waste management at the level of individual settlement and enterprises. Thus, there is a research gap on the development of models for diagnosing the situation of sustainable/non-sustainable waste management at the country level as a whole, which is a result of legislative initiatives and their final implementation in the form of macroeconomic indicators.

Second, waste management issues are related to the concept of a Circular Economy and are considered in its framework. Merli R., Preziosi M., and Acampora A. conducted a systematic review of the literature on various aspects of the circular economy [15]. They found that studies on the Circular Economy are predominantly concentrated in China and Europe. This is explained by the state policies implemented there.

Veleva V., Bodkin G., and Todorova S., in studying the problems of waste generation, substantiated the need for a better measurement of education and the involvement of employees in the circular economy [16]. The authors found that when companies set the goal of “zero waste to landfill,” they focus not on preventing the generation of waste, but on diverting the resulting waste from ending up in the landfill. Consequently, they primarily focus on recycling and waste management methods to reduce waste, rather than reducing waste generation.

Caldera H.T.S., Desha C., and Dawes L., when exploring the relationship between lean thinking and sustainable and responsible business practices, proved the need to complement the lean manufacturing paradigm with a green paradigm [17]. Resulting from their synergistic effect, the economic and environmental performance of the organization will improve significantly, including reduced waste and reduced emissions.

The state policies implemented in individual countries determine the relevance of the study of waste generation and use within the framework of the Circular Economy. However, the subject area of research includes individual environmental and economic aspects, without implying the creation of an integral indicator for diagnosing a sustainable waste management situation, while taking into account the three components of sustainable development—social, economic, and environmental. The development of an integrated indicator based on the social, economic, and environmental components is a poorly researched area.

Third, waste problems are considered in the framework of the analysis of the problems of various regions and sectors of the economy, including smart cities. Edalatpour M.A., Al-e-hashem S.M.J.M., Karimi B., and Bahli B., using the example of Tehran, investigated a new sustainable model of waste management in megacities [18]. The authors proposed waste management with a random rate of waste generation, which takes into account various possibilities for waste disposal, recycling, and reuse processes.

Ngoc U.N. and Schnitzer H. examined waste generation indicators, their sources and composition, as well as future development trends in Southeast Asia [19].

Moreover, Sel Ç., Soysal M., and Çimen M. developed a stochastic model for the catering industry and proved the potential advantages of outsourcing to reduce overall costs and reduce waste [20].

Yadav V., Bhurjee A.K., Karmakar S., and Dikshit A.K. developed a model for selecting the location of an object of a solid waste management system under conditions of uncertain rates of waste generation, costs of facility operation, transportation costs, and revenues [21].

Liu Y., Kong F., and Santibanez Gonzalez E.D.R. analyzed data on landfills, waste management, and environmental safety in England, including the reasons for illegal dumping based on panel data in England [22].

During their study, Boltakova N.V., Faseeva G.R., Kabirov R.R., Nafikov R.M., and Zakharov Y.A. examined the possibilities of using various inorganic industrial wastes for the production of building ceramics, as well as Russian developments in the field of environmental management in the ceramic industry [23].

Starostina V., Damgaard A., Eriksen M.K., and Christensen T.H. reviewed waste management in the Irkutsk region of the Russian Federation [24]. The authors found that the existing waste management system primarily includes landfill in an uncontrolled landfill without environmental measures, contributing to climate change, although a number of alternatives to this will provide a significant improvement in the environment.

Seen in the work of Zhang et al. [25], the authors note that it is necessary to create a new type of managerial thinking aimed at the transition to a “zero-waste circular economy.” They note that this is especially true for China, due to the specifics of the national economy.

Thus, we can conclude that the regional problems of waste management are considered by researchers from the perspective of finding tools to solve them. These solutions, in turn, are in the field of using modern management tools, including outsourcing, stochastic logistic models, etc. for specific companies, industries, and regions. The practical use of these models depends on management targets. Sustainable waste management models will only be effective and efficient when the criteria for the concept of sustainable development are used along with indicators of economic efficiency when making strategic and tactical decisions. A necessary element for this is the creation of models for diagnosing the waste management situation, taking into account changes in the social, economic, and environmental components. Such models are not sufficiently methodically developed.

Overall, a review of the problems that exist within the analyzed waste management research groups show the following. First, the research gap consists of practical models for diagnosing the situation with waste management at the macro level, which, in the form of a single integral indicator, take into account the simultaneous influence of social, economic, and environmental factors. Second, the management of sustainable waste management should be based on dynamic measurements of their changes (growth/growth rates). Third, waste management models should reflect the state of legislative and executive initiatives through specific macroeconomic indicators and allow for identifying the causes of sustainable/non-sustainable waste management.

3. Materials and Methods

3.1. Analysis of Existing Problems of Waste Generation and Use in the Russian Federation

The problem of production waste growth is of particular importance for Russia as a country with a large number of raw material and resource-processing industries. Thus, mining and manufacturing in total account for almost a third of the gross value added structure of the Russian Federation over the past 8 years, and this share is increasing annually (Figure 3).

Municipal solid waste (MSW) of the urban population takes second place in terms of negative environmental impact in Russia. Historically, “municipal waste” was called waste, and was buried by the city authorities. Difficulties in handling municipal waste, and an increase in the urban population, are part of the problems of Russian household waste. Viewing Figure 4, the population growth in Russia is due to the growth of the urban population. Seen in Russia, MSW over the past 25 years has increased 4 times. Housing and communal services in the field of MSW management are accompanied not only by large losses of resources, but also by an increase in environmental pollution.

The volume of MSW is constantly growing both in absolute terms and per capita, and the composition of MSW is becoming more complicated, including an increasing number of environmentally hazardous components [26].

According to an analysis of existing MSW industrial recycling methods in Russia for almost all constituent entities of the Russian Federation, the main problem in the field of environmental protection is the disposal and recycling of household waste [27,28,29,30]. Among them, waste generated in the residential sector are of the greatest importance due to their complex morphological composition and various sources of formation.

Russian researchers, considering waste management issues in Russia, focus on solid household waste [5,26,30].

The amount of municipal waste in Russia is increasing, and its composition, especially in large cities, is approaching the composition of MSW in Western countries with a relatively large share of paper waste and plastic [31]. Existing Russian MSWs are heterogeneous in composition (

Table 1. Structure of Russian municipal solid waste (MSW).

Waste Type	%
Food and vegetable waste	20–30
Paper waste	20–25
Plastic	Up to 10
Glass	3–5
Textile	3–5
Black metals	3–4
Non-ferrous metals	0.4–0.5
Wood, leather, rubber, stones, ceramics, bones	1–2
Other waste	10–15

).

Although, for about half a century in world practice the main tendency to solve the MSW problem has been to involve them in industrial processing and disposal in Russia landfills remain the main method. Regarding the Russian Federation, a MSW neutralization system has been developed based on the disposal of about 98% of waste at landfills and unorganized landfills. Landfill sites in Russia occupy more than 40 thousand hectares of land. The area of filled landfills is about 50 thousand hectares [2].

The existing MSW collection system in Russian cities is unitary and does not provide for the separation of waste streams into different fractions, the allocation of hazardous waste from the total volume, and the collection of secondary raw materials. Due to the lack of a separate garbage collection system, almost all hazardous household components and non-MSW—waste batteries, electronic scrap, batteries, thermometers, tonometers, fluorescent lamps, medical waste, and much more [2]—fall into MSW. They are transported to landfills alongside low-hazard solid waste. Although dumps are often called landfills, they do not meet the requirements for landfill facilities and do not have a waterproofing (concrete, clay or other) base that prevents the spread of toxic pollution through aquifers. Additionally, they are often arranged in quarries, ravines, and wetlands near settlements, which is unacceptable from an environmental and hygienic point of view [32,33,34].

When solving problems associated with the placement and operation of solid waste landfills, a number of issues arise, which for the most part have not yet been resolved. The main disadvantages of the current system of MSW landfill in Russia are as follows. First, there is a negative impact on various environmental components in the vicinity of MSW landfills and there is a constant environmental hazard from the accumulation of large amounts of waste. A significant proportion of negative impacts results from the presence of toxic substances in the landfill. Second, there is an irrational use of land resources and every year the allocation of land and the arrangement of new places for landfills occurs with great resistance from the local population. Third, the costs of solid waste disposal for the delivery of MSW to disposal sites are constantly increasing. Fourth, during burial, a loss of valuable components of solid waste occurs.

Analyzing the indicators of waste generation in Russia, it should be noted (

Table 2. Indicators of waste generation in the Russian Federation.

Indicator	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Volume of generation, mln tons	5.01	5.15	5.17	5.06	5.44	6.22
Changes in the volume of generation %	16.5	2.9	0.3	−2.1	7.5	14.34
Waste generation structure by hazard class:
- non-hazardous waste (hazard class 5), mln tons	4.89	5.03	5.05	4.95	5.34	6.11
- hazardous waste (hazard class 1–4), mln tons	0.11	0.12	0.12	0.11	0.1	0.1
- share of hazardous waste in total generation, %	2.2	2.3	2.3	2.2	1.8	1.6

) that, with the exception of 2015, there is an annual increase in absolute and relative terms of the generation of both total waste and hazardous waste requiring mandatory disposal.

Analyzing the indicators of waste use in Russia, it is necessary to note both the increase in the amount of waste disposed (storage and use), and the growth of used and neutralized waste. Moreover, the ratio between them changes every year. By 2017, the amount of waste used was close to the size of the waste disposed (Figure 5).

The ratio of used and neutralized waste to the total volume of generation for the subject varies from 39.6 to 59.6% (Figure 6).

Analyzing the generation of the production and consumption of waste in Russia by type of economic activity (Figure 7) shows that mining is the greatest source of waste generation. Since 2012, this sector accounts for more than 90% of waste. Second are processing industries, and third are agriculture, hunting, and forestry. Over the past 15 years, the production and consumption of waste has more than doubled—from 3035.5 million tons in 2012 to 6220.6 million tons in 2018. Concurrently, the structure of waste generation production and consumption in Russia by type of economic activity remained virtually unchanged.

Analyzing the use and disposal of production and consumption waste by type of economic activity in Russia, one can see a similar picture (Figure 8).

Analysis of the growth rate of the production and use of production and consumption waste (Figure 9) shows that the ratio between them is constantly changing. Regarding 2007, 2012, 2014, 2015, and 2016, the growth rate of waste use and disposal exceeded the growth rate from education. Concerning 2006, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2013, and 2017, the opposite situation was observed.

Analysis of the use of production and consumption waste (Figure 10) shows a favorable trend since 2015—the amount of waste used and neutralized exceeds the amount of waste disposed at landfills.

The dynamics of the percentage of use and the neutralization of production and consumption waste in Russia from 2005 to 2017 is shown in Figure 11. During the analyzed period, the percentage fluctuated between 40 and 47 percent. Its maximum value was 60% in 2016. A steady growth trend was not observed.

Extended producer responsibility (EPR) has existed in Russia since 2014. However, there are some unresolved issues to date, related to the development of a federal network for the separate collection of waste, and changes in the control system for utilization, regulations, and norms of disposal for business. It is necessary to adjust the EPR mechanism, to create incentives for EPR subjects and to develop an industry for the separate collection and processing of waste.

Overall, for Russia, the generation and use of waste is an environmental and governmental issue [35]. Despite the need for diagnosing the waste management situation in the Russian Federation as a country with a world level of environmental significance, the methods used for this require further improvement.

Thus, for sustainable waste management, measurements are needed—a quantitative integral indicator that includes social, economic, and environmental factors and reflects the status of legislative and executive initiatives in the field of sustainable waste management, through specific macroeconomic indicators. Additionally, a technique is needed to identify and measure the causes of its change. This indicator will become the basis for monitoring the situation in the economic, environmental, and social spheres, as well as for making managerial decisions.

3.2. Methodology: Development of an Integrated Approach to Sustainable Waste Management

3.2.1. Development of an Integrated Indicator of Waste Management

The developed integral indicator of waste management is based on the concept of sustainable development. Sustainable development reflects a model of societal development in which the basic vital needs of both the present and subsequent generations are satisfied. The concept of sustainable development is a paradigm of balanced, self-sustaining development through the interconnected achievement of environmental, social, and economic goals.

Waste management that complies with the principles of the concept of sustainable development, or sustainable waste management (treatment) must ensure the achievement of social and economic goals of economic agents while reducing the burden on the environment. Given the characteristics of the Russian statistical system, 3 indicators can be selected to characterize the economic, social, and environmental components of waste management (Figure 12) to develop an integrated indicator of waste management.

The economic component is the rate of investment in fixed assets to protect the environment from pollution by production and consumption waste, consistent with the principles of a circular and green economy [35,36,37,38]. The environmental component, the rate of generation of production and consumption waste, characterizes compliance with the principles of non-waste production. The social component—the rate of use and disposal of production and consumption waste—characterizes compliance with the principles of responsible production and consumption [39].

Each indicator is associated with the achievement of several sustainable development goals declared by the UN [5]. Therefore, their assignment to one group is conditional. Reducing waste generation, for example, meets the environmental protection goals of sustainable development—clean water and sanitation, life below water, life on land, and ensuring sustainable consumption and production patterns—as well as the goals of responsible production and consumption.

Since the selected factors have different dimensions, we use the growth rates of these factors measured in relative terms from 0 to 1 when developing an integrated indicator of waste management.

3.2.2. Algorithm for Improving the Quality of Strategic Waste Management Based on the Use of the Developed Integrated Indicator

The analysis of sustainable waste management includes 3 stages— evaluation, diagnostics and forecasting changes in the integral indicator of waste management (Figure 13).

Stage 1—assessment of the integrated indicator of waste management.

The integrated indicator of waste management is a mixed factor model.

$$Y=X_1\times \raisebox{1ex}{$X_2$}\!\left/ \!\raisebox{-1ex}{$X_3$}\right.$$

(1)

where $Y$ is the integral indicator of waste management

• X₁ is the growth rate of the use and disposal of production and consumption waste.
• X₂ is the growth rate of investment in fixed assets to protect the environment from pollution by production and consumption waste,
• X₃ is the growth rate of production and consumption waste generation.

Regarding our approach, which takes into account the particularities of the Russian production and statistical system, sustainable waste management means the following. The first is the high level of use and disposal of production and consumption waste. The second is the growth of investment in fixed assets to protect the environment from pollution by production and consumption waste. Third, reducing the generation of production and consumption waste. The higher the values of the first two factors and the lower the value of the third, the higher the value of the integral indicator of waste management, in other words.

Depending on the values of the integral indicator of waste management, a conclusion can be made on whether waste management is sustainable or non-sustainable (

Table 3. Diagnosing the waste management situation.

Integral Indicator of Waste Management	Characterization of the Situation
$Y$ < 1	non-sustainable waste management
$Y$ > 1	non-sustainable waste management

).

To determine the growth rate, the values of factors in the current and previous periods are compared:

X₁ = A₁/A₀,

(2)

X₂ = B₁/B₀,

(3)

X₃ = C₁/C₀,

(4)

where A₁ is the waste management and disposal in the current year,

• A₀ is the waste management and disposal in the previous year,
• B₁ is the investments in environmental protection from waste pollution in the current year,
• B₀ is the investments in environmental protection from waste pollution in the previous year,
• C₁ is the waste generation of the current year,
• C₀ is the waste generation of the previous year.

The system of indicators for determining the integral indicator of waste management is presented in

Table 4. Waste management indicators.

Activities	Units	Symbol
Source data—primary statistical indicators
Use and disposal of production and consumption waste	thou tons	A
Investments in fixed assets to protect the environment from pollution by production and consumption waste	mln rubles	B
Production and consumption waste generation	thou tons	C
Intermediate indicators—growth rates of primary statistical indicators
Growth rate of the use and disposal of production and consumption waste	fractions from 1	X1
Growth rate of investment in fixed assets to protect the environment from pollution by production and consumption waste	fractions from 1	X2
Growth rate of production and consumption waste generation	fractions from 1	X3
Integral indicator of waste management
Waste management indicator	fractions from 1	Y

.

Stage 2—diagnostics. Factor analysis of the integrated indicator of waste management

To diagnose the integral indicator of waste management and measure the influence of individual factors we use deterministic factor analysis, and the method of chain substitutions is used. Deterministic factor analysis is a technique for analyzing the influence of factors, the relationship of which, with the effective indicator, is functional.

Here, the integral indicator of waste management is a mixed model. The steps of the chain substitution method for solving the problem are presented in

Table 5. The method of chain substitutions for the diagnosis of changes in the integral indicator of waste management.

Step	Characteristic	Calculation Formula
1	Determination of the integral indicator of waste management in the previous period $Y_0$ with the values of factors X10, X20, X30.	$Y_0=X_{10}\times X_{20}/X_{30}$
2	Determination of the intermediate value of the integral indicator of waste management $Y_{11}$ when replacing the values of the first factor—the growth rate of waste use and disposal (X1) from the base value X10 to the current value X11	${Y_1}^{\prime }=X_{11}\times X_{20}/X_{30}$
3	Determination of the change in the indicator of waste management due to changes in the growth rate of waste use and disposal	$\Delta Y_{X1=}{Y^{\prime }}_1-Y_0$
4	Determination of the intermediate value of the integral indicator of waste management $Y_{21}$ when replacing the values of the second factor—the growth rate of investments in fixed assets to protect the environment from pollution (X2) from the base value X20 to the current value X21.	${Y_2}^{\prime }=X_{11}\times X_{21}/X_{30}$
5	Determination of changes in the indicator of waste management due to changes in the rate of investment in fixed assets to protect the environment from pollution by waste	$\Delta Y_{X2=}{Y^{\prime }}_2-{Y^{\prime }}_1$Δ
6	Determination of the intermediate value of the integral indicator of waste management $Y_{31}$ when replacing the values of the third factor—the growth rate of generation of production and consumption waste (X3) from the base value X30 to the current value X31.	${Y_3}^{\prime }=X_{11}\times X_{21}/X_{31}$
7	Determination of changes in the indicator of waste management due to changes in the rate of investment in fixed assets to protect the environment from pollution by waste	$\Delta Y_{X3 }={Y_3}^{\prime }-{Y_2}^{\prime }{}_{11}$Δ
8	Determination of the actual value of the integral indicator of waste management in the reporting (current) year $Y_1$ with the values of factors X11, X21, X31.	$Y_1=X_{11}\times X_{21}/X_{31}$
9	Total change in the integral indicator of waste management can be represented as the sum of increments under the influence of individual factors	$\Delta Y=\Delta Y_{X1}+\Delta Y_{X2}+\Delta Y_{X3 }\Delta Y=$$Y_1-Y_0$

.

Stage 3—forecasting sustainable waste management.

The forecasting stage includes the development of management measures depending on the identified causes and changes in the integral indicator of waste management.

4. Results. Analysis of Sustainable Waste Management in Russia

We used our developed model to evaluate the quality of waste management in the Russian Federation.

4.1. Assessment of the Current Sustainability of Waste Management

The initial data for determining the integral indicator of waste management in the Russian Federation are given in

Table 6. Initial data for determining the integral indicator.

Indicator	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Use and disposal of production and consumption waste, thou tons	1738.1	1990.7	2348.1	2043.6	2357.2	2685.1	3243.7	3264.6
Investments in fixed assets to protect the environment from pollution by production and consumption wastes, mln rub.	6276	4505	7442	7485	7684	12,732	8423	10,942
Production and consumption waste generation, thou tons	3734.7	4303.3	5007.9	5152.8	5168.3	5060.2	5441.3	6220.6

. The definition of intermediate indicators came according to Formulas (2)–(4). The calculation results of the intermediate indicators according to Formulas (2)–(4) are presented in Figure 9, Figure 10 and Figure 11 and in

Table 7. Intermediate indicators for determining the integral indicator.

Indicator	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Growth rate of use and disposal of production and consumption waste	1.05	1.15	1.18	0.87	1.15	1.14	1.21	1.01
Growth rate of investments in fixed assets for environmental protection from pollution by production and consumption waste	–	0.72	1.65	1.01	1.03	1.66	0.66	1.30
Growth rate production and consumption waste generation	1.07	1.15	1.16	1.03	1.00	0.98	1.08	1.14

. The calculation results of the integral indicator of sustainable management of production and consumption waste are shown in

Table 8. Integral indicator of sustainable management of production and consumption waste.

Indicator	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Integral indicator of waste management of production and consumption waste	–	0.71	1.67	0.85	1.18	1.93	0.74	1.14

.

We see rather strong fluctuations in the growth rates of investments in fixed assets for environmental protection from pollution by waste, and growth rates in the generation of production and consumption waste (Figure 14, Figure 15).

The growth rate of use and disposal of production and consumption waste fluctuates less strongly (Figure 16).

The calculation results of the integral indicator of waste management defined by Formula 1 are presented in Table 8 and Figure 17.

We see that the situation of non-sustainable waste management was typical for 2011, 2013, and 2016. The reason for this in 2011 and 2016 was the economic component, the growth rate of investments in fixed assets for environmental protection from waste pollution was less than 1. Regarding 2013, two reasons at once led to the situation of non-sustainable waste management. The growth rate of waste use and disposal was less than 1, and the growth rate of waste generation exceeded the growth rate of investments in environmental protection from pollution by waste.

During 2012, 2014, 2015, and 2017, waste management was sustainable. Concerning 2012, 2015, and 2017, the growth rate of investments in protecting the environment from waste pollution played a positive role. Considering 2014, the almost unchanged level of production and consumption waste generation played a decisive role, with a simultaneous increase in investments in protecting the environment from waste pollution and an increase in the use and disposal of production and consumption waste.

4.2. Analysis of Factors That Influenced the Integrated Indicator of Waste Management in Russia

The influence of factors on the change in the integral indicator of waste management was determined according to the methodology of deterministic factor analysis described in Section 3.2. Its results are shown in

Table 9. Factor analysis results change in the integrated indicator of waste management.

Indicator	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Integral indicator of waste	1.67	0.85	1.18	1.93	0.74	1.14
Indicator change	0.96	−0.82	0.33	0.75	−1.18	0.40
Impact of growth rate of use	0.02	−0.44	0.28	−0.01	0.12	−0.12
Impact of investment growth	0.96	−0.48	0.02	0.72	−1.23	0.60
Impact of the growth rate of waste generation	−0.02	0.10	0.03	0.05	−0.07	−0.07

and in Figure 18.

The change in the growth rate of investments in environmental protection from pollution by waste played a decisive role in changing the integral indicator in 2012, 2014–2017. The second most influential factor is the change in the growth rate of use and the neutralization of production and consumption waste. Fluctuations in the growth rate of waste generation do not have a strong effect on the change in the integral indicator of waste management.

Generally, it can be said that a change in the economic component (the level of investment in fixed assets to protect the environment from pollution by waste) plays a major role in changing the integral indicator of waste management in Russia. Furthermore, responsible production and responsible use of production and consumption waste are unused reserves of sustainable waste management.

5. Discussion

While solid waste is an environmental issue of great concern to residents of developed countries, garbage is still a governmental problem in Russia. The problem of handling municipal solid waste (MSW) in Russia was not included in the list of the most important federal programs and remained outside the scope of interests of the environmental community. Its priorities so far remain in the development of “low-waste” and “non-waste” technologies and end at the stage of turning raw materials into finished products. This break in the chain is the cause of the greatest damage to the environment. The most effective environmental management levers that can ensure the implementation of the concept of sustainable development are in this gap.

An increase in the amount of waste, an increase in its negative impact on the environment, a shortage of resources (containers, garbage trucks, equipped container sites, modern technologically equipped landfills), increased costs associated with the collection of waste, disposal at landfills, and subsequent industrial processing are problems of treatment for waste in Russia. The main problems of waste management in Russia are shown in Figure 19.

Since the unresolved problems of industrial and household waste have economic, social, and organizational aspects, they threaten the implementation of the concept of sustainable development in Russia. Sustainable waste management limits the environmental impact of MSW, both in the short and long term. The negative effects of non-sustainable waste management are presented in Figure 20.

The main objectives of waste management in Russia are the following. First, the maximum use of the selective collection of municipal solid waste to obtain secondary resources and reduce the amount of neutralized waste. Second, the optimal operation of landfills, taking into account subsequent land reclamation. Third, the construction of highly mechanized integrated waste processing enterprises.

Unfortunately, it is necessary to state the absence of environmental responsibility for most Russian manufacturers and the general low level of production culture due to a number of socio-economic, political, and legal factors. Given the energy and raw materials orientation of the development of the Russian economy, the problem of sustainable waste management, as a governmental problem, will be relevant in the near future.

The situation of waste management in Russia, as a country with a world level of significant environmental problems with a large number of raw materials and resource processing industries, requires correction. Mining and manufacturing together account for nearly one third of the gross value added structure of the Russian Federation over the past years. Every year in Russia there is an increase in both absolute and relative terms of the generation of both general and hazardous waste, which must be disposed of without fail.

Mining generates the most waste. Since 2012, this industry accounts for more than 90% of the waste in the Russian Federation. Regarding the Russian Federation, a MSW neutralization system has been developed based on the disposal of about 98% of waste at landfills and unorganized dumps. Since 2015, a favorable trend has been observed—the amount of used and neutralized waste exceeds the amount of waste disposed of in landfills.

We conducted a dynamic analysis of the integrated indicator of waste management in the Russian Federation from 2012 to 2017. We identified non-sustainable waste management in 2011, 2013, and 2016. During 2012, 2014, 2015, and 2017, waste management was sustainable. The change in the growth rate of investments in environmental protection from waste pollution played a decisive role in changing the integral indicator.

Generally, we can say that a change in the economic component determines the sustainability (or non-sustainability) of waste management in the Russian Federation. Furthermore, responsible production and the responsible use of production and consumption waste is an untapped area of potential for sustainable waste management.

Despite the fact that, each year, Russia occupies an increasingly high position in international competitiveness ratings, there are a number of reasons which prevent us from diagnosing the sustainable development of the Russian economy. Concerning the field of economics, these include the low level of economic added value, exploitation of natural resources, and export of energy resources. Regarding the social sphere, these include a high level of social stratification of society. Considering the environmental sphere, these include a high level of negative anthropogenic pressure on industrial and domestic waste on the environment.

It is necessary to emphasize the lack of environmental responsibility for most Russian manufacturers and the general low level of production culture due to a set of socio-economic and political-legal factors. The unsolved problems of industrial and household waste have economic, social, and organizational aspects which threaten the implementation of the concept of sustainable development in Russia. Our developed indicator can become the basis for managerial decisions to develop a sustainable model of waste management, especially in countries with a similar structure of gross value added.

6. Conclusions

New approaches for identifying the type of waste management (sustainable or unsustainable), including the stages of assessment, diagnosis, and forecasting of the integrative indicator complying with the principles of sustainable development have been developed in this article.

Considering the peculiarities of the Russian statistical system, an integrated indicator of waste management has been developed. This indicator is a mixed factor model. It consists of three factors that characterize the economic, environmental, and social components. The economic component is the rate of investment in fixed assets to protect the environment from pollution by production and consumption waste; it characterizes compliance with the principles of a circular and green economy. The environmental component is the rate of production and consumption waste generation; it characterizes compliance with the principles of non-waste production. The social component is the rate of use and disposal of production and consumption waste; it characterizes compliance with the principles of responsible production and consumption.

Analysis of sustainable waste management includes three stages—assessment, diagnostics, and forecasting changes in the integral indicator of waste management. This indicator allows us to determine if a waste management system is sustainable or non-sustainable. A deterministic factor model based on the method of chain substitutions is proposed to diagnose the integral indicator of waste management and measure the influence of individual factors on its change.

Our developed indicator can become the basis for managerial decisions to develop a sustainable model of waste management, as it allows identification and correction of imbalances between environmental, social, and economic factors in waste management situations.

Additionally, a key feature of this approach is its dynamic nature. To determine the integral indicator of sustainable/unstable waste management, the rates of factors changing—namely the waste generation, the waste management, and its disposal—the investments in environmental protection from waste pollution have been taken into account.

The proposed approach can become the basis for managerial decisions in the economic, environmental, and social spheres to develop a sustainable model of waste management. The developed indicator and approach can be used in other countries, especially in countries with a similar gross value added structure.