Assessing the Impact of Extreme Temperature Conditions on Social Vulnerability
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Study Area and Data
2.1. The Study Area
2.2. Selection of Variables
3. Methodology
3.1. Indices Calculation
3.2. General Vulnerability Assessment
3.3. Spatial Patterns of Social Vulnerability
- -
- I is the global Moran’s I statistics;
- -
- xi represents the observed value of the analyzed variable at location i;
- -
- xj is the observed value of the studied variable in unit j;
- -
- is the arithmetic average of the xi over the n locations;
- -
- wij is the spatial weight measure of contiguity and is defined as 1 if location i is contiguous to location j and 0 otherwise [58].
4. Results
4.1. Measuring Climate-Related Social Vulnerability Components
4.2. Assessing Highly Vulnerable Areas
4.3. Identifying Spatial Patterns of Climate-Related Social Vulnerability Index
- Communes with the lowest level of vulnerability (L-L cluster) located near the most extensive urban centers (Cluj-Napoca);
- Settlements with a relatively high level of vulnerability as compared to the central regions (H-L cluster), located immediately near the previous ones;
- Settlements with the highest level of social vulnerability (H-H cluster), located in the northern, eastern, and southern parts of the county, where extreme temperatures regularly negatively affect agricultural yields, thus influencing the overall socio-economic development;
- The fourth cluster (L-H) includes some rural and small-size urban settlements, indicating a lower level of social vulnerability than the surrounding areas (Figure 6).
5. Discussion
6. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A. Spatial Distribution of Extreme Temperature Indices in Cluj County
References
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Vulnerability Components | Variables | Mean | SD | Min | Max |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Exposure | Mean value of daily maximum temperature (°C) | 3.75 | 0.67 | 1.77 | 4.54 |
Mean annual magnitude of coldwaves (°C) | −20.95 | 2.04 | −25.08 | −16.91 | |
Mean annual number of hot days (days) | 7.25 | 4.33 | 0.01 | 17.36 | |
Mean annual number of frost days (days) | 117.82 | 8.13 | 107.21 | 144.99 | |
Mean duration of a heatwave events (days) | 3.11 | 0.03 | 2.99 | 3.17 | |
Growing degree days (°C) | 1174.42 | 178.11 | 593.60 | 1378.56 | |
Sensitivity | Average number of people per household (number) | 2.55 | 0.26 | 2.02 | 3.12 |
Demographic dependency ratio (%) | 217.50 | 77.14 | 67.31 | 488.81 | |
Illiteracy rate (%) | 1.85 | 1.70 | 0.24 | 9.93 | |
Net international migration rate (‰) | −0.12 | 0.45 | −2.00 | 1.19 | |
Number of housing units per square kilometer (house/km2) | 2.17 | 0.94 | 0.77 | 8.37 | |
People employed in agriculture (%) | 37.30 | 19.11 | 1.06 | 77.50 | |
Percentage of forest cover (%) | 21.58 | 15.20 | 0.97 | 87.69 | |
Population density (people/km2) | 97.42 | 237.95 | 6.03 | 1710.87 | |
Rate of natural increase (‰) | −8.63 | 6.50 | −27.80 | 13.52 | |
Share of houses constructed from wood (%) | 16.46 | 16.60 | 1.10 | 68.62 | |
Share of houses built between 1946–1990 (%) | 27.33 | 8.57 | 9.05 | 46.38 | |
Share of population under 5 years old (%) | 14.79 | 5.74 | 3.23 | 53.18 | |
Share of population aged 65 years and above (%) | 30.36 | 10.66 | 8.46 | 66.58 | |
Share of widows within the female population (%) | 12.97 | 4.41 | 3.80 | 30.77 | |
Share of women from the total population (%) | 46.84 | 7.76 | 13.91 | 84.19 | |
Adaptive capacity | Access to major public road network (number) | 2.22 | 1.22 | 1.00 | 5.00 |
Employment rate (%) | 0.30 | 0.28 | 0.05 | 1.79 | |
Housing space per person (m2) | 19.29 | 7.90 | 5.25 | 61.14 | |
Medical-sanitation staff per 1000 persons (‰) | 0.67 | 1.16 | 0.00 | 8.56 | |
Share of houses with reinforced structure (%) | 0.54 | 0.79 | 0.00 | 5.00 | |
People employed in services (%) | 39.20 | 14.80 | 15.06 | 82.79 | |
Per capita income (RON/person) | 971.63 | 451.70 | 249.13 | 3908.83 | |
Share of houses built after 1990 (%) | 14.18 | 9.90 | 3.19 | 51.13 | |
Share of households with a kitchen area (%) | 69.50 | 18.02 | 28.30 | 97.94 | |
Share of households with a fixed bath (%) | 42.30 | 22.84 | 6.67 | 97.62 | |
Share of households with access to piped water (%) | 48.35 | 23.48 | 12.61 | 98.65 | |
Share of households with access to the sewage network (%) | 45.95 | 23.40 | 10.90 | 98.52 | |
Share of households with a central heating system (%) | 17.90 | 20.54 | 1.49 | 92.02 | |
Share of population with university education (%) | 5.89 | 5.92 | 1.00 | 37.51 |
Component | Percent Variance Explained | Dominant Variables | Component | Sign | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Loading | |||||
Built Environment Vulnerability Index | Housing facilities | 45.468 | Share of households with access to piped water | −0.934 | − |
Share of households with access to sewage networks | −0.928 | ||||
Share of households with a central heating system | −0.703 | ||||
Share of households with a kitchen area | −0.913 | ||||
Share of households with a fixed bath | −0.922 | ||||
Quality of housing | 19.074 | No. of houses with a reinforced structure | −0.823 | + | |
No. of houses built between 1946–1990 | 0.616 | ||||
Population density | 0.820 | ||||
Quality of living | 11.587 | Housing space per person | 0.858 | + | |
Number of housing units per km2 | −0.884 | ||||
Share of houses built after 1990 | 0.508 | ||||
Green environment | 7.824 | Percentage of forest cover | 0.871 | + | |
Share of houses constructed from wood | 0.748 | ||||
Cumulative variance explained: 83.953 | |||||
Kaiser–Mayer–Olkin Measure of Sampling Adequacy 0.789 | Extraction Method: PCA. Rotation Method: Varimax with Kaiser Normalization. Rotation converged in 6 iterations. | ||||
Bartlett’s Test of Sphericity 0.000 | |||||
Demographic Vulnerability Index | Family structure | 40.756 | Share of population aged 65 years and above | 0.893 | + |
Share of the population under 5 years | 0.788 | ||||
Share of widows within the female population | 0.867 | ||||
Demographic vitality | 30.551 | Demographic dependency ratio | 0.946 | + | |
Rate of natural increase | −0.918 | ||||
Gender and mobility | 14.68 | Net international migration rate | 0.921 | + | |
Share of women from the total population | 0.608 | ||||
Cumulative variance explained: 85.987 | |||||
Kaiser–Mayer–Olkin Measure of Sampling Adequacy 0.773 | Extraction Method: PCA. Rotation Method: Varimax with Kaiser Normalization. Rotation converged in 4 iterations. | ||||
Bartlett’s Test of Sphericity 0.000 | |||||
Socio-Economic Vulnerability Index | Education and occupation | 38.662 | Share of population with a university education | −0.828 | − |
Employment rate | −0.822 | ||||
Illiteracy rate | 0.552 | ||||
People employed in agriculture | 0.887 | ||||
People employed in services | −0.879 | ||||
Health and accessibility | 25.698 | Access to major public roads | −0.647 | − | |
Medical sanitary staff per 1000 persons | −0.891 | ||||
General well-being | 13.768 | Average number of people per household | 0.852 | − | |
Per capita income | −0.629 | ||||
Cumulative variance explained: 78.127 | |||||
Kaiser–Mayer–Olkin Measure of Sampling Adequacy 0.750 | Extraction Method: PCA. Rotation Method: Varimax with Kaiser Normalization. Rotation converged in 6 iterations. | ||||
Bartlett’s Test of Sphericity 0.000 | |||||
Climate vulnerability index | Extreme temperature indices | 77.642 | Mean value of daily maximum temperature (°C) | 0.959 | + |
Mean annual frequency (cumulative duration) of coldwaves (days) | 0.912 | ||||
Mean annual number of hot days (daily maximum temperature ≥35 °C) | 0.917 | ||||
Mean annual number of frost days (daily maximum temperature <0 °C) | 0.923 | ||||
Growing degree days (°C) | 0.969 | ||||
Mean duration of a heatwave events (days) | 0.527 | ||||
Cumulative variance explained: 77.642 | |||||
Kaiser–Mayer–Olkin Measure of Sampling Adequacy 0.826 | Extraction Method: PCA without rotation | ||||
Bartlett’s Test of Sphericity 0.000 |
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Török, I.; Croitoru, A.-E.; Man, T.-C. Assessing the Impact of Extreme Temperature Conditions on Social Vulnerability. Sustainability 2021, 13, 8510. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13158510
Török I, Croitoru A-E, Man T-C. Assessing the Impact of Extreme Temperature Conditions on Social Vulnerability. Sustainability. 2021; 13(15):8510. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13158510
Chicago/Turabian StyleTörök, Ibolya, Adina-Eliza Croitoru, and Titus-Cristian Man. 2021. "Assessing the Impact of Extreme Temperature Conditions on Social Vulnerability" Sustainability 13, no. 15: 8510. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13158510
APA StyleTörök, I., Croitoru, A. -E., & Man, T. -C. (2021). Assessing the Impact of Extreme Temperature Conditions on Social Vulnerability. Sustainability, 13(15), 8510. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13158510